The Underdog Theory

Since 2017 wildcard dogs when matched with teams who didnt participate in the playoffs in the previous year are 16-1 ATS. Overall, Wildcard Dogs are 27-15 ATS since 2017 and for the whole playoff round this goes up to 60-38 ATS. As to the quarterbacks, QBs with no experience are 20-40 SU when matched with experienced playoff QBs. And when a QB who had a superbowl experience and becomes an underdog the current season is 62-23 ATS in post season games. 

This year we have two neophytes in the playoffs wanting to make a case for their names; Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. Both have stellar performances in the regular season but if you do a deep dive into their wins and schedules, their teams were never dominant against contender teams. The Patriots has the weakest strength of schedule and the Bears never dominated a game with most of their wins they are trailing 70-80% of the time of play and 6 of their wins are won in a form of a comeback or a hail mary play. So I will fade these two kids these year - including Bryce Young who just won their division luckily this year. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars can be relevant and yes their team can be real contenders this year but they are in a bad match up against the Bills and Josh Allen. 

Some notable stats and info on each team and their QB for the 2025 Wildcard Round since 2010:

Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen
-Career playoff wins 7-6 but 0-4 on the road. This year, he is on the road again.
- Playoff road history: Bills have struggled on the road historically — only 4 playoff road wins in franchise history and long stretches without a road playoff win.

Texans and CJ Stroud
-Career playoff wins 2-2.
-Texans are 0-6 on the road in the playoffs. 

Chargers and Justin Herbert
-Herbert is 0-2 in the playoffs but he is set to face Drake Maye. On paper you have Drake Maye mostly leading on all the categories but experience on pressure maybe Justin Herbert has the edge?

Rams and Mathew Stafford
-Stafford is 5-5 in post season games in his career. 

Steelers and Aaron Rodgers
-The Steelers are one of the league’s most successful home playoff franchises in NFL history, with 21 home playoff wins since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger — ranking among the top teams.
-23 straight MNF games
-Mike Tomlin holds the record as the highest winning percentage coach when projected as home underdog.

As for the other teams, I cant find relevant data about their performance considering their QBs are relatively young and have no enough playoffs experience. and upon tinkering on these trends and datas above, here are my picks. (Packers and Bills opened as short underdogs so I consider them while pondering on these stats, got 4 of 6 dogs this weekend)

Straight Bets:
LA Rams -10.0
Greenbay Packers -1.5
Bills -1.0
Eagles -4.5
Chargers +3.5
Steelers +4.0

Teasers: +803
Rams -5.5
Packers +3.5
Bills +3.5
Eagles ML
Chargers +7.5
Steelers +7.5

ML Parlay: +3683
Rams ML
Packers ML
Bills ML
Eagles ML
Chargers ML
Steelers ML

Locking these in early before I see any stupid NBA games for the rest of the week. Good luck!

good info

Nice analysis.  Good luck.

Justin Herbert and Pittsburgh are the weak links

@Way2Good

 The absolute best post of the season. Good luck and follow your intuitive picks.

Josh Allen is still Josh Allen, no matter how bad or scrappy their rush defense is, he is still like captain america on the field and will find a way to win. 

jags, patriots, and bears have achieved so much this season. Props to them! It is about time they leave the game to the big boys and them little boys go sit in the corner and watch. Their time will come in the next few seasons but not now where we have prime Josh Allen, Playoffs Jalen Hurts and Barkely, Uncle Aaron Rodgers, Uncle Matt Stafford, and probably the youngest contender will be Herbert and the bolts!

@Way2Good

 Might have to tail the teaser and ML parlay. I’ll just be too jealous if it hits and I’m not part of it!!

@PUSSYGALORE333 

@riskybets 

@lordbettington 

@DogbiteWilliams 

@Wizerguy 

@takethecannolis 

@brn2loslive2win 

@undermysac 

@Way2Good

 You’re way2good for a reason.

good stuff. I think we’re sharing a brain right now. My apologies. 

Yall want another crazy stat? 

Josh Allen played 29 of 30 stadiums/fields of the NFL in his career. You know the only stadium he hasnt played yet? Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara , SF. Guess where the superbowl at this year????

lol Bills -1.5 vs Jaguars all day. Idc about all the hype of Liam Coen and Duvaaaal.

@Way2Good

 I have that exact ml parlay. I really hope you hit the ML

@Way2Good

 Crazy stat with Josh Allen . Thanks for all work. Hit that ml parlay and dominate this post season. Cheers and Csah that Buffalo future. Look into the connection of Levi Strauss ,that started in New York and now stadium of super bowl 60

@KTriple

Dropping more nuggets of information that leads to my picks this weekend.

The NFL just released the Head Referees for each game and these refs are most known for the following:

GB vs Bears: Adrian Hill 
-Favorites are 3-11 ATS (The line keeps on moving between who is the favorite for this game but this opened with Bears -1.0) I got the Packers ML for this game.

Bills vs Jags: Brad Allen
-Favorites are 11-1 SU when the total score is set at >47.0. Bills all day, every day. 

Chargers vs Pats: Ron Torbert
-Road teams are 73-50 ATS. My pick, Chargers +3.5

Rams vs Panthers: Clete Blakeman
-Favorites of more than 7pts are 27-14 when he is the head official. Thus lean, Rams -10.5.

Texans vs Steelers: Craig Wolstand
-Road favorites by 7 pts or less are 42-26 when Wolstand is the head official but I still lean Steelers +3.5, Steelers is on a 23 game win streak when games are played on Monday nights. Aaron Rodgers retirement legacy tour and texans never won a road playoff game. 

49ers vs Eagles: Alan Eck
-Road dogs are 13-24 ATS when Eck is the head official. My pick is Eagles -4.5. 

6 seeds have only been favored over 3 seeds 7 times in playoff history. The first time was in the year 2000 when both 6 seeds from both conferences were favored. 

The 3 seed won both of those games. One by 3 points and the other in OT.

Since then the 6 seed is 5-0 and has won by an average of over 10 points per game. So 6 seed is 5-2 all time. 

Applies to Buffalo vs Jags.

Also Jacksonville is 0-19 in games where the total is 49.5 or more. Bills vs Jags sits at 51.5 or more at every book. 

Just more information. Doesn’t mean either team wins or loses but plays into my handicapping. 

@emeraldsports

Bills mafia will be happy to read this stat. thank you! 

@BigNiner

@Way2Good

Love the analysis! Thanks.  One nugget, the Bears were dominant against the Eagles this year, in Philly. But yes, Bears were lucky all year

@JackStraw

 The Bears will face reality today at 8pm EST. Caleb Willliams and Ben Johnson will be brought back down to earth.