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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    The Unconventional, Yet Profitable Thread

    «First Previous 1234 Next Last»
    poketjjax
    WingerWins
    MotorCitySmitty
    lima35
    howzuck
    ...
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    Posts: 83
    «First Previous 1234 Next Last»
     
    poketjjax
    poketjjax
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    Posted: Aug. 30, 2012 - 11:39 AM ET #26

    alright, the first play has been locked in!

    Uconn/ west virginia/ ohio st/ nebraska  ML parlay @ -483

    risk $4.83 dollars to win $1.00


    Uconn plays tonight, so let's start off with an easy W

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    alright, the first play has been locked in!

    Uconn/ west virginia/ ohio st/ nebraska  ML parlay @ -483

    risk $4.83 dollars to win $1.00


    Uconn plays tonight, so let's start off with an easy W

     
    WingerWins
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    Posted: Aug. 30, 2012 - 12:44 PM ET #27

    The lions against the rams looks strong for a third pick. I also like the bears at home against a rookie quarterback.    Money like parlays are a great way to make some $$ this year!!
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    The lions against the rams looks strong for a third pick. I also like the bears at home against a rookie quarterback.    Money like parlays are a great way to make some $$ this year!!
     
    poketjjax
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2012 - 9:21 AM ET #28

    started off with a really easy W for Uconn. also, i have one more play that i like. this one comes with a little less juice thanks to Cal

    California/ West Virginia/ Stanford ML parlay @ -322

    risk $3.22 to win $1.00


    i know West Virginia is in my other parlay as well, but i feel really confident in them winning by a huge margin. Stanford should win easily tonight as well. i really like this Cal ML. i've done some research on it and the line seems a bit short. they may even cover the spread here. 
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    started off with a really easy W for Uconn. also, i have one more play that i like. this one comes with a little less juice thanks to Cal

    California/ West Virginia/ Stanford ML parlay @ -322

    risk $3.22 to win $1.00


    i know West Virginia is in my other parlay as well, but i feel really confident in them winning by a huge margin. Stanford should win easily tonight as well. i really like this Cal ML. i've done some research on it and the line seems a bit short. they may even cover the spread here. 
     
    MotorCitySmitty
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    Posted: Aug. 31, 2012 - 3:08 PM ET #29

    Eagles on the road not the best option in my opinion. but I understand your thought process I think. I feel that the parody in the NFL is as close as ever that being said I would increase my odds by sticking to home ML plays. best of luck
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    Eagles on the road not the best option in my opinion. but I understand your thought process I think. I feel that the parody in the NFL is as close as ever that being said I would increase my odds by sticking to home ML plays. best of luck
     
    poketjjax
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    Posted: Sep. 1, 2012 - 1:52 AM ET #30

    i agree with ya smitty. i'm gonna stay away from the eagles. after looking things over, i might just take the texans ML by itself. i know it's crazy juice, but i feel better about it than i do a 3 team 10 pt teaser. it always seems like one of those legs just lays a dud. i really like the lions to beat the rams as well.
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    i agree with ya smitty. i'm gonna stay away from the eagles. after looking things over, i might just take the texans ML by itself. i know it's crazy juice, but i feel better about it than i do a 3 team 10 pt teaser. it always seems like one of those legs just lays a dud. i really like the lions to beat the rams as well.
     
    poketjjax
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    Posted: Sep. 1, 2012 - 6:37 PM ET #31

    Mississippi/ Kansas/ Alabama ML parlay @ -343

    risk $3.43 to win $1.00


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    Mississippi/ Kansas/ Alabama ML parlay @ -343

    risk $3.43 to win $1.00


     
    poketjjax
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2012 - 4:08 AM ET #32

    here's the summary for today's action...


    Uconn/ west virginia/ ohio st/ nebraska  ML parlay @ -483  WIN



    California/ West Virginia/ Stanford ML parlay @ -322 LOSS


    Mississippi/ Kansas/ Alabama ML parlay @ -343 WIN

    so i lost $1.22 today. no big deal. that can be earned back easy enough.

    that puts the current BR at $98.78.

    RECORD: 2-1 (-$1.22)
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    here's the summary for today's action...


    Uconn/ west virginia/ ohio st/ nebraska  ML parlay @ -483  WIN



    California/ West Virginia/ Stanford ML parlay @ -322 LOSS


    Mississippi/ Kansas/ Alabama ML parlay @ -343 WIN

    so i lost $1.22 today. no big deal. that can be earned back easy enough.

    that puts the current BR at $98.78.

    RECORD: 2-1 (-$1.22)
     
    poketjjax
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2012 - 4:29 AM ET #33

    i will have one play for tomorrow...

    Louisville ML @ -460

    Risk $4.60 to win $1.00


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    i will have one play for tomorrow...

    Louisville ML @ -460

    Risk $4.60 to win $1.00


     
    lima35
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2012 - 7:16 AM ET #34

    Back inthe late nineties, while  in Daytona, I hooked up with a sportsbook  from central America that put out bet sheets w/ teasers  also. You you could bet up to 16 games & up to 16 teasers of 6 - 9 pts. I played those with 10. 00 and 20.00 bet 20 plays on sat, and ten on Sun.I don't recall making but 7 or 8 wins, but they were paying out 6.000 and more for stiright up parleys, Ive not seen the sheets around since the 2001Todays sports book has dummied down down the odds so much, it makes it a bigger challenge to plat. my favotite was a 9 team parlay backed up with a teaser,. So I love parlays and teasers and I like your opinion on the selections and how you got them. Personally, my selections come from reading a little and watching a lot. Semper fi  and have a great year
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    Back inthe late nineties, while  in Daytona, I hooked up with a sportsbook  from central America that put out bet sheets w/ teasers  also. You you could bet up to 16 games & up to 16 teasers of 6 - 9 pts. I played those with 10. 00 and 20.00 bet 20 plays on sat, and ten on Sun.I don't recall making but 7 or 8 wins, but they were paying out 6.000 and more for stiright up parleys, Ive not seen the sheets around since the 2001Todays sports book has dummied down down the odds so much, it makes it a bigger challenge to plat. my favotite was a 9 team parlay backed up with a teaser,. So I love parlays and teasers and I like your opinion on the selections and how you got them. Personally, my selections come from reading a little and watching a lot. Semper fi  and have a great year
     
    howzuck
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2012 - 9:31 AM ET #35

    Simple rules if you must play teasers, yes teasing across zero is not recommended, unless you get to +3 1/2.  I won't play it (not a big fan of teasers), but why not play the following:

    Bills (tease to +10 1/2, agree if Jets do win it will be close)
    Texans (tease to -2 1/2, Dolphins won't be in the game)
    Lions (tease to below laying a field goal, they should handle Rams)

    Teasers are about crossing critical numbers (mainly 3,7,10), remember this my friend and you will win quite a few, but remember they are called teasers because you are teased into thinking it's a sure thing. 
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    Simple rules if you must play teasers, yes teasing across zero is not recommended, unless you get to +3 1/2.  I won't play it (not a big fan of teasers), but why not play the following:

    Bills (tease to +10 1/2, agree if Jets do win it will be close)
    Texans (tease to -2 1/2, Dolphins won't be in the game)
    Lions (tease to below laying a field goal, they should handle Rams)

    Teasers are about crossing critical numbers (mainly 3,7,10), remember this my friend and you will win quite a few, but remember they are called teasers because you are teased into thinking it's a sure thing. 
     
    poketjjax
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2012 - 1:14 PM ET #36

    Quote Originally Posted by howzuck:

    Simple rules if you must play teasers, yes teasing across zero is not recommended, unless you get to +3 1/2.  I won't play it (not a big fan of teasers), but why not play the following:

    Bills (tease to +10 1/2, agree if Jets do win it will be close)
    Texans (tease to -2 1/2, Dolphins won't be in the game)
    Lions (tease to below laying a field goal, they should handle Rams)

    Teasers are about crossing critical numbers (mainly 3,7,10), remember this my friend and you will win quite a few, but remember they are called teasers because you are teased into thinking it's a sure thing. 


    i'm with ya on that strategy. that teaser you have listed might actually be a play for me. 3 team 7.5 point teasers have good odds so that might work out well. i can't decide if i'm more confident in the bears or the lions. i don't know why i am fearing the rams on the road, but i am.
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    Quote Originally Posted by howzuck:

    Simple rules if you must play teasers, yes teasing across zero is not recommended, unless you get to +3 1/2.  I won't play it (not a big fan of teasers), but why not play the following:

    Bills (tease to +10 1/2, agree if Jets do win it will be close)
    Texans (tease to -2 1/2, Dolphins won't be in the game)
    Lions (tease to below laying a field goal, they should handle Rams)

    Teasers are about crossing critical numbers (mainly 3,7,10), remember this my friend and you will win quite a few, but remember they are called teasers because you are teased into thinking it's a sure thing. 


    i'm with ya on that strategy. that teaser you have listed might actually be a play for me. 3 team 7.5 point teasers have good odds so that might work out well. i can't decide if i'm more confident in the bears or the lions. i don't know why i am fearing the rams on the road, but i am.
     
    Yanasaur
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2012 - 1:20 PM ET #37

    I think these ML parlays are just too tough to hit at a rate that will net a profit. You're still paying huge juice and you still have to rely on more than one team to win. You will have to win around 5 out of 6 wagers similar to the ones you have posted just to break even. 5 wagers times 3 teams per wager = 15 favorites out of 18 have to win (that's tough enough) and you have to hope that the 3 out of 18 that don't win aren't all on separate wagers...Upsets happen more often than you think.

    With all that being said, I think it's possible that you could make money on a system like this. I would stay away from these parlays though. If you have to combine 3 teams to get to -350 why not just bet one favorite at -350? I would stick to single wagers on teams that are -200 to -400. That would typically mean teams around -4 to -8 or -9. A -8 favorite is still going to win a good amount of the time and you aren't having to risk one leg of a parlay falling off. If you stick to only betting games that you are really confident about you could probably win money this way.
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    I think these ML parlays are just too tough to hit at a rate that will net a profit. You're still paying huge juice and you still have to rely on more than one team to win. You will have to win around 5 out of 6 wagers similar to the ones you have posted just to break even. 5 wagers times 3 teams per wager = 15 favorites out of 18 have to win (that's tough enough) and you have to hope that the 3 out of 18 that don't win aren't all on separate wagers...Upsets happen more often than you think.

    With all that being said, I think it's possible that you could make money on a system like this. I would stay away from these parlays though. If you have to combine 3 teams to get to -350 why not just bet one favorite at -350? I would stick to single wagers on teams that are -200 to -400. That would typically mean teams around -4 to -8 or -9. A -8 favorite is still going to win a good amount of the time and you aren't having to risk one leg of a parlay falling off. If you stick to only betting games that you are really confident about you could probably win money this way.
     
    Yanasaur
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2012 - 1:30 PM ET #38

    Here's my suggestion for a 7.5 pt 3 teamer:

    Giants -4 (teased to +3.5) - The 'Boys are a mess right now, injuries galore.

    Bills +3 (teased to +10.5) - Jets are a mess too, they look awful. They might pull off a win but I don't see a blowout. Bills are MUCH improved and I think they win SU.

    Panthers -1 (teased to +6.5) - Tampa doesn't look great either and I think Panthers have improved a lot. Cam is gonna tear shit up.

    If you don't like Panthers, I'd replace it with Bears -9.5 (teased to -2).
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    Here's my suggestion for a 7.5 pt 3 teamer:

    Giants -4 (teased to +3.5) - The 'Boys are a mess right now, injuries galore.

    Bills +3 (teased to +10.5) - Jets are a mess too, they look awful. They might pull off a win but I don't see a blowout. Bills are MUCH improved and I think they win SU.

    Panthers -1 (teased to +6.5) - Tampa doesn't look great either and I think Panthers have improved a lot. Cam is gonna tear shit up.

    If you don't like Panthers, I'd replace it with Bears -9.5 (teased to -2).
     
    poketjjax
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2012 - 2:49 PM ET #39

    Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur:



    With all that being said, I think it's possible that you could make money on a system like this. I would stay away from these parlays though. If you have to combine 3 teams to get to -350 why not just bet one favorite at -350? I would stick to single wagers on teams that are -200 to -400. That would typically mean teams around -4 to -8 or -9. A -8 favorite is still going to win a good amount of the time and you aren't having to risk one leg of a parlay falling off. If you stick to only betting games that you are really confident about you could probably win money this way.


    ya i agree with ya. i'm gonna alter this throughout the year. i think i can find a way to make this work. i'd much rather wager this way than try and get an edge against the spread. that's just not realistic.

    thats a good teaser you have there. everyone appears to be on the bills +10.5. i like that a lot. also the texans is definitely going to be in it for me. the last one is up in the air, but i'll definitely consider the ones you have listed.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur:



    With all that being said, I think it's possible that you could make money on a system like this. I would stay away from these parlays though. If you have to combine 3 teams to get to -350 why not just bet one favorite at -350? I would stick to single wagers on teams that are -200 to -400. That would typically mean teams around -4 to -8 or -9. A -8 favorite is still going to win a good amount of the time and you aren't having to risk one leg of a parlay falling off. If you stick to only betting games that you are really confident about you could probably win money this way.


    ya i agree with ya. i'm gonna alter this throughout the year. i think i can find a way to make this work. i'd much rather wager this way than try and get an edge against the spread. that's just not realistic.

    thats a good teaser you have there. everyone appears to be on the bills +10.5. i like that a lot. also the texans is definitely going to be in it for me. the last one is up in the air, but i'll definitely consider the ones you have listed.
     
    bulichm
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2012 - 3:00 PM ET #40

        The biggest problems you will face are being too afraid to pull the trigger on obvious selections and playing too many parlays. You only have to be successful on one or two a week to reach your goal.
        CHI/TEX/DET would be decent, your playing the better teams on their home openers.  
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        The biggest problems you will face are being too afraid to pull the trigger on obvious selections and playing too many parlays. You only have to be successful on one or two a week to reach your goal.
        CHI/TEX/DET would be decent, your playing the better teams on their home openers.  
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2012 - 3:08 PM ET #41

    Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:

    Is winning $190 for the whole season worth betting? 

     

     



    Sure it is. Any time you win its great. You get a whole season of having action......
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    Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:

    Is winning $190 for the whole season worth betting? 

     

     



    Sure it is. Any time you win its great. You get a whole season of having action......
     
    poketjjax
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    Posted: Sep. 3, 2012 - 10:01 AM ET #42


    Louisville ML @ -460  WIN

    the record now stands at 3-1 for a net loss of $0.22

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    Louisville ML @ -460  WIN

    the record now stands at 3-1 for a net loss of $0.22

     
    MIKE_ROSS
    MIKE_ROSS
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    Posted: Sep. 3, 2012 - 10:56 AM ET #43

    Dont like bills Sunday. Jets won at least last 4 over them and 3 were blowouts. BOL!
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    Dont like bills Sunday. Jets won at least last 4 over them and 3 were blowouts. BOL!
     
    MIKE_ROSS
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    Posted: Sep. 3, 2012 - 10:58 AM ET #44

    Don't like Buffalo vs jets. NY has won last 4 and 3 by blowout. BOL
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    Don't like Buffalo vs jets. NY has won last 4 and 3 by blowout. BOL
     
    budwiser
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    Posted: Sep. 3, 2012 - 11:03 AM ET #45

    i'll talk u out of it

    i've seen these kind of threads over and over again.

    you can't go with a "golden rule" of just betting the heavy favorite on the ml all the time.  

    that said, i agree with you that the vegas line is generally tight.  that's why you must cherry pick games
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    i'll talk u out of it

    i've seen these kind of threads over and over again.

    you can't go with a "golden rule" of just betting the heavy favorite on the ml all the time.  

    that said, i agree with you that the vegas line is generally tight.  that's why you must cherry pick games
     
    SCROG
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    Posted: Sep. 3, 2012 - 1:28 PM ET #46

    Completely agree with Train and budwiser as well. Siding with the House more often than not will produce a winning season. There's a reason SportsBooks make a profit every year.
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    Completely agree with Train and budwiser as well. Siding with the House more often than not will produce a winning season. There's a reason SportsBooks make a profit every year.
     
    poketjjax
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    Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 5:34 AM ET #47

    Just looked in the jaguars/Vikings under of 38 at +110 juice. I feel like it's good value. I placed .46 on this to win .50
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    Just looked in the jaguars/Vikings under of 38 at +110 juice. I feel like it's good value. I placed .46 on this to win .50
     
    poketjjax
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    Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 9:21 AM ET #48

    early lean for the college football slate..

    ohio state/ texas tech/ south carolina ML parlay @ -441

    just a lean for now. anyone see a scare one there that they would rather stay away from?

    also, i'm leaning towards just doing a 2 team teaser with the lions and the texans. i'm gonna wait for that texans line to come down some. if it doesnt then i'll still do it with worse juice of course. but as you can tell, juice doesn't bother me much
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    early lean for the college football slate..

    ohio state/ texas tech/ south carolina ML parlay @ -441

    just a lean for now. anyone see a scare one there that they would rather stay away from?

    also, i'm leaning towards just doing a 2 team teaser with the lions and the texans. i'm gonna wait for that texans line to come down some. if it doesnt then i'll still do it with worse juice of course. but as you can tell, juice doesn't bother me much
     
    drudatt108
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    Posted: Sep. 5, 2012 - 9:37 AM ET #49

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    poketjjax
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    Posted: Sep. 7, 2012 - 8:38 AM ET #50

    just locked in this ML parlay. big juice, but i feel good about it.

    South Carolina/ Michigan State/ LSU/ USC ML parlay @ -466

    Risk $4.66 to win $1.00



    Also, the nfl play with the Texans and Lions is going to happen. i would just like to get the Texans at a better price. i'm going to wait in hopes of a line move.
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    just locked in this ML parlay. big juice, but i feel good about it.

    South Carolina/ Michigan State/ LSU/ USC ML parlay @ -466

    Risk $4.66 to win $1.00



    Also, the nfl play with the Texans and Lions is going to happen. i would just like to get the Texans at a better price. i'm going to wait in hopes of a line move.
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