The more I bet on the NFL the more I realize it is all about "situations" and "angles"

Question

The more I bet on the NFL the more I realize it is all about "situations" and being able to identify them. It is less about capping which defense can defend what offense, etc..

It seems to me it is all about situations such as..

-Bet against historically bad road teams (Saints).

-Bet against teams coming off a huge win and playing on the road

-Bet against teams playing a bad opponent but playing their rival next week (look ahead angle)

-Bet against teams that looked really good last week but are playing a team that looked really bad last week

Anyone agree? Also what other situations or angles come to mind?

Lind4MVP · Answer

The more I bet on the NFL the more I realize it is all about "situations" and being able to identify them. It is less about capping which defense can defend what offense, etc..

It seems to me it is all about situations such as..

-Bet against historically bad road teams (Saints).

-Bet against teams coming off a huge win and playing on the road

-Bet against teams playing a bad opponent but playing their rival next week (look ahead angle)

-Bet against teams that looked really good last week but are playing a team that looked really bad last week

Anyone agree? Also what other situations or angles come to mind?

daysbtwin · Answer

Yes, looking at situations/motivation is key when betting the NFL because the talent margin is razor thin from team to team when you compare the league to college ball.

A couple examples are...

I look to bet a home dog playing an opposite conference opponent

(Chargers and Browns both winners this week.)

One I really look to bet is a home dog who lost the previous week as a home favorite.

daysbtwin · Answer

Or look to bet against a road favorite who won straight up the previous week as a road dog.

Chimpo · Answer

Yes and LC is very good at it. There were few others but not posting much anymore.
LC do writeups most of times so you get his angle . Important part is those particular angle might not win that particular game , but they ll win in a long run so you just add that to your capping and use it in the future.

Poseyman · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Lind4MVP] The more I bet on the NFL the more I realize it is all about "situations" and being able to identify them. It is less about capping which defense can defend what offense, etc..&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;It seems to me it is all about situations such as..&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;-Bet against historically bad road teams (Saints).&#xD;&#xA;-Bet against teams coming off a huge win and playing on the road&#xD;&#xA;-Bet against teams playing a bad opponent but playing their rival next week (look ahead angle)&#xD;&#xA;-Bet against teams that looked really good last week but are playing a team that looked really bad last week&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Anyone agree? Also what other situations or angles come to mind?&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;That the refs are gonna put it in your a z z!

wiggins · Answer

college as well and maybe even more so since they are kids

fade teams off big wins in ncaa..sandwich spot makes it even stronger...these are the situations where public percentages matter. fading public blind is stupid. its just one component.

if u can limit your plays you will do well. but most are actions junkies and lack the discipline

Lind4MVP · Answer

Exactly.

bezerker44 · Answer

another huge one is teams coming off a bye and playing at home the following week

MTFN50 · Answer

well put ... situation week 1 three dome teams .ATL Saints and det one loses in OT 2 win , all have huge days offensively , week 2 on the road outside ,on grass ,slows down the speedsters ,QBs production way down , all three lose ...

Love ATL and Saints this week Both need win here but. saints in must win week3 .team is starting to feel like the decline has started, window closing on super bowl appearance IMO

JFen31 · Answer

Every time I see someone reference stats as a justification for betting an NFL game, a part of me dies inside.

Capping the NFL is akin to trading commodities. Buy low, sell high, and do not put any stock in what you most recently saw.

Somehow, 90% of bettors will never be able to figure this out.

lucas57 · Answer

argued that point last week,also too much stock in what happened the week before . Cowgirls for example play well on the road outside there conference .titans suck ,at home there worse after a win .didn't matter who Titans won against week 1

Bengals except for SD last year no one beats them at home ,and they cover all the time .Didn't matter ATL beat the Saints week 1 and scored 50..they don't play well on grass

Pats my biggest surprise ,even without AP people still liked Minny and the points . discounting that Matt Cassel is the QB Pats week 1 had 1bad half against a team that they have won only 30%against lifetime Dolphins always matchedup well with the Pats.Pats also after losing by 10 or more ,and or losing period have a staggering record

As far as stats they are a good component to use ,you just need to throw out the worthless stats .

Moku_weena · Answer

So then, should we play Pitt &#x2B;3 at Carolina this week????

Gl0gang1017 · Answer

Took a bath siding with the Public past 2 weeks so this looks like a way to change it up

-Bet against teams coming off a huge win and playing on the road

Seahawks and Eagles, I liked these picks from the start might lock them in a see the results

Lind4MVP · Answer

But was Denver&#x27;s win last week actually huge? They barely beat a banged up KC team.The real plays last week were betting against Seattle and Denver as they were both looking ahead to their week 3 match up. The angle worked as Seattle lost to SD and Denver didn&#x27;t cover vs KC.

sidehustle · Answer

Couldn&#x27;t say it any better myself.

Firebird27 · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;truth

Gl0gang1017 · Answer

Different meanings of Big Win , Big Win like 30 point blow out or Big Win like a team driving about to tie and get a int to hold them off a build confidence going into next week. But I get the idea.

Firebird27 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by MTFN50] &#xD;&#xA;well put  ... situation   week 1  three dome teams .ATL  Saints and det   one loses in OT 2 win ,  all have huge days offensively   , week 2  on the road outside ,on grass ,slows down the speedsters ,QBs production way down , all three lose ...&#xD;&#xA;Love ATL and Saints  this week  Both need win here but. saints in must win week3 .team is starting to feel like the decline has started, window closing on super bowl appearance IMO &#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;Saints yes,  Falcons, not so fast my friend...The game against Tampa will be closer than most think.  Beware!

Svern002 · Answer

its not just will they win or did they win .. those numbers arent as evident as if u look at did they cover ?? the ATS numbers is where u find these angels coming thru

The more I bet on the NFL the more I realize it is all about "situations" and "angles"

Hot Forum Topics