I wouldnt fade the Pats. They are a machine operating on another level offensively. I cant see flynn keeping up over 4 quarters.
You're right. This one is even more extreme. Most of the teams that got walloped by the favorites on my list were punching bags to begin with. The Patriots annihilated the 9-2 Jets and the 9-3 Bears. Imagine how much it took out of them to outscore those two teams by a combined 81-10.
I wouldn't say unfair, more like not neccasary. True, GB didn't give them a reason to get fired up, but you have to realize the Belicek way is to not let up regardless. He can't let his team get complacent, especially against a backup. I'm choosing to lay off here because I don't give any team 2 TDs.
There's not much he can do here. He'll make sure his team doesn't get too overconfident against a QB with virtually no experience, but aside from that, all he can do is gameplan as usual. Belichick is a smart guy. He knows that barking at his team will not work this week. How could he anyways, after such recent excelllence? All he wants is to make sure his team doesn't become so sure of themselves that they get sloppy and blow the whole game. Belichick has been around long enough that he doesn't need my statistics to inform him that this is a vulnerable spot for his team.
That has already been accounted for in the pointspread.....by 7 points! The Patriots were going to be a 6.5-point favorite with Aaron Rodgers starting. With him ruled out, the line was re-set at -13.5.
Look, if you can't get past "Flynn vs. Brady" then you definetely haven't overthought this one. On September 30, 2001, people weren't "overthinking" "Brady vs. Manning" and they lost that bet by 45 points!
Colts 44 Patriots 13 (Tom Brady's first career start 9/30/01 - the Pats were a 14-point dog)
And it's partly on the backs of all those December wins of years past that the Patriots have built up their well-deserved reputation, and that's partly why they're a big, fat 14-point favorite today.
Think about it, Pats backers - given the nearly decade-long history of excellence in the Brady/Belichick Era, and given the last few weeks of going beyond even the the Patriots' own benchmark for excellence, do you actually believe that the oddsmakers are giving you any sliver of value today??? No, they're not. In fact they're bending over for the privilege of betting on the Patriots this week. The oddsmakers can't physically stop the Patriots from going out tonight and winning this game by more than 14 points, but they can definetely make sure you pay an unreasonable theoretical price for betting that it will happen.
Really? Matt Flynn replacing Aaron Rodgers and you think the difference in the spread is at most 1.5 points? Wow. Well anyways, the early line with Rodgers playing had New England -6.5. The official Matt Flynn line came out yesterday at -13.5.
Bellicek and Brady are not immune to situations like this, it just applied to them last season and the failed to cover the next week.
In 2007 they were 8-0 ATS , then went 2-9 ATS in their remaining games, it appears Belicek did let up, or, more accurately, became overvalued on the spread after those big wins when the luck-based plays were going their way and once overvalued and no longer recieveing all the luck-based plays could not cover the inflated lines, sounds like this weeks game.
Good post.
And all I'm just sayin' is that on September 30, 2001, no one outside the Patriots organization thought Tom Brady was anything either (except maybe his family and friends).
I said yes to your question a couple pages ago but I wouldn't want to go searching for that either. Seahawks +6 -105 and ML +230.
+800 is worth a shot, and that's currently available in Las Vegas.
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