Tech Playoffs

My picks have been trash this season...did very well last playoffs season in the NFL.

Over the database history away teams have done well in Sunday games and terrible in non-Sunday games

Angles...

1)  Away dogs that have missed the playoffs for at least the past three seasons...

  a)  Sunday..........24-11-1 ATS (2.2), 12-24 straight up (-4.4).......11-5 ATS (3.5), 6-10 straight up (-2.2) in the wildcard round....ON Commanders, Broncos

This has been 6-2 ATS, 2-6 straight up when the line has been >+6.

2)  Sunday Wildcard Round away non-divisional dogs of <=7 with equal or less wins on the season....14-4 ATS, 6-12 o/u....ON Packers

3)  Sunday playoff home favorites of less than 9 points whose opponent has won less than 13 games........VERSUS Eagles, Bucs, Bills

  a)  Wildcard round 7-24 ATS (-5), 16-15 straight up (-0.1), 12-19 o/u

  b)  Playoff conference semifinals 7-18-1 ATS (-2.3), 16-10 straight up (+3.6), 12-14 o/u 

4)  Non-Sunday away dogs of more than 7 points in the wildcard round.........................................1-7 ATS (-6.0), 1-7 straight up  (-15.2)......VERSUS Steelers

5)  Home wildcard round dogs....

  a)  Saturday 6-2-1 ATS........Texans

  b)  Sunday 3-7-1 ATS

  c)  Monday 1-1 ATS............Rams (maybe, line is moving)

Plays:

1)  Ravens -8'

2)  Packers +4'

3)  Broncos +8'

4)  Commanders +3

5)  Rams pik

@Indigo999

Always interested in the stuff you post, but I really don't see the relevance of the days, particularly with a small sample. It's not like teams play better or worse on Sunday based on what they've seen and heard about Saturday. Each game is largely self-contained when it's sudden death.

RLeith35

How far back do these numbers run when you say history, all the way to 1978? 

5)  An away wildcard round dog that has had the better defense on a points/game basis as long as this team had a worse than or equal winning percentage.....

  a)  Sunday..........11-3 ATS (+4.0), 6-8 straight up (-0.8).....ON Broncos

  b)  Saturday.......7-5-1 ATS (+5.0), 6-7 straight up (0.6)......ON Steelers

6)  An away wildcard dog whose present opponent has won more than one more game out of each teams' last six games than the away dog has.....for example team A, the away dog, won 2 out of their last six games and team B won 4 out of their last six.

  a)  Sunday........8-4 ATS (+3.1), 4-8 straight up (-4.5).....Packers

  b)  Saturday......4-3-1 ATS (+1.1), 3-5 straight up.......Steelers

7)  A Sunday wildcard away dog whose opponent in their last six games had an average margin per game of less than +10, (for example in their last six games the home favorite has averaged 24 points/game and allowed 17 points per game, that would qualify).....19-7 ATS.....ON Broncos

8)  An away dog in the wildcard round that had a negative average points per game margin their last six games.

  a)  Sunday.....7-3 ATS (+5.2), 3-7 straight up (2.9).....No Play

  b)  Saturday....2-7 ATS (-6.4), 1-8 straight up (-11.6)......VERSUS Steelers

9)  An away wildcard dog that has won 3 or less games out of their last six games and has won less than or equal games than their present opponent on their season as a whole...

  a)  Saturday...........6-10-1 ATS (-2.7), 5-12 straight up (-8.1)......VERSUS Steelers

  b)  Sunday.............8-2 ATS (+5.1), 4-6 straight up (-2.4)..............ON Packers

Don't be surprised if they move the Rams game to ARI if the fires don't slow down. Heard that this morning.

10)  A Sunday playoff  away dog of greater than 3 points whose opponent has been undefeated at home playing their first playoff game.  In other words the  home favorite who has not lost at home all season could be playing in the wildcard round (Bills) or off a bye in the conference semifinals (Chiefs)....10-1 ATS (+12.8), 8-3 straight up (+6.5).......ON Broncos, VERSUS Chiefs next week if they are favored and playing on Sunday

Query text....AD and oA(W@H)=1 and playoffs = 1 and op:playoffs=0 and day = Sunday and line>3

There may be something to this because sat being a short week. Home Favorite being mostly the better team has the advantage VS road team needing to travel on Friday instead of sat has 1 less day to prepare takes them out of their normal routine. 

On that travel day the home team can use to prepare and being a short werk to begin with seems this could give home teams being mostly the better team a pretty good advantage.

I'm not saying whether I would play that trend only trying to find a reason it could make sense.

Good info ................

That makes some sense, although very typically in the NFL marquee games in the last two weeks of the regular season are flexed to Saturday. For example, this season Ravens and Steelers both played last Saturday. Chargers, Broncos, Rams all played the previous Saturday in Week 17.

Rookie QBs don't fare well in the playoffs. For that reason it's hard for me to back Washington or Denver.

Also have to wonder if the Chargers and Ravens have peaked too soon. Ravens-Steelers has mostly been a dog series, and the Steelers are on a 7-1-1 ATS run in that role. The line seems short though. I'd have to have AT LEAST 10 to play it.

But the Chargers are also on their third straight road game, and on a short week at that. This is also the same team that was destroyed by Tampa Bay a month ago, being outgained by 300 yards! I like the Texans here.

"How far back do these numbers run when you say history, all the way to 1978?"

It's not a trick question... 

This database goes back to 2001.

This angle is a continuation of an earlier one....playing against teams that were unbeaten at home during the regular season in their opening playoff game, which fits the Chiefs and the Bills this season.

11)  An away dog of more than 3 points  in the first or second round of the playoffs that is playing a team that did not lose at home during the regular season.

  a)  Wildcard round Sunday.....3-0 ATS, 3-0  straight up

    1)  2009  Ravens +3' Patriots 33-14

    2)  2014 Chargers +6 Bengals 27-10

    3)  2024 Packers +7 Cowboys 48-32

  b)  Conference semifinals Sunday......7-1 ATS, 5-3 straight up

    1)   2003 Colts +3' Chiefs 38-31

    2)   2006 Patriots +4' Chargers 24-21

    3)   2011 Jets +9' Patriots 28-21

    4)   2011 Giants +7' Packers 37-20

    5)   2011 Texans +7' Ravens 13-20

    6)   2014 Colts +9 Broncos 24-13

    7)   2019 Cowboys +5' Packers 21-26

    8)   2018 Chargers +3' Patriots 28-41

  c)  Saturday wildcard round.....1-2 ATS, 1-2 straight up

    1)   2002 Falcons +6' Packers 27-7

    2)   2006 Chiefs +9' Colts 8-23

    3)   2011 Lions +10' Saints 28-45

  d)  Saturday conference semifinals.....6-3 ATS, 3-6 straight up

    1)  2003 Titans +6 Patriots 14-17

    2)  2004 Panthers +7 Rams 29-23

    3)  2004 Jets +8' Steelers 17-20

    4)  2005 Patriots +3' Broncos 13-27

    5)  2005 Commanders +9 Seahawks 10-20

    6)  2007 Jaguars +12 Patriots 20-31

    7)  2008 Cardinals +9' Panthers 33-13

    8)  2014 Colts +7 Patriots 22-43

    9)  2021 49ers +5' Packers 13-10

12)  An away wildcard  team with a line between -4 and +4 who had the better regular season record compared to their present opponent....11-7-2 ATS (+1.2) 13-7 straight up....Vikings, Commanders, Chargers

  a)  Sunday 6-2-1 ATS...........Commanders

  b)  Saturday 4-4-1 ATS.........Chargers

  c)  Monday 1-1 ATS..............Vikings

13)  An away wildcard dog that over their last six games had at least a negative -3 points per game deficit in comparison to their present opponent

  a)  Sunday 14-7 ATS......Commanders

  b)  Saturday 6-8 ATS......Steelers

Query text....p:playoffs = 0 and playoffs = 1 and A and tA(margin, N=6) - oA(margin, N=6) <-3 and day

14)  An away wildcard dog that missed the playoffs last season.....

  a)  Sunday 29-15-1 ATS (+2.6), 15-30 straight up (-3.9).......Commanders, Broncos

  b)  Saturday 26-28-3 ATS (-1.0), 17-40 straight (-7.1)

15)  An away wildcard round team on a one game losing streak exact playing a team that won at least 9 games during the regular season.....5-15 ATS (-8.0), 4-17 straight up (-12.3) .....VERSUS Vikings

Query text..........playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0 and A and streak=-1  and o:wins>8

16)  A wildcard home favorite coming off two home games 3-7 ATS (-6.0), 3-7 straight up (-0.8), 3-7 O/U (-2.0).......VERSUS Eagles, Bucs

The Rams are also in a situation of being off two home games, but obviously it is not the same for them as actually playing on their home field.

Nothing one-sided came up for a team playing off two straight away games as is the case for the Chargers. 

Query text....playoffs=1 and p:H and pp:H and p:playoffs=0 and HF and op:playoffs=0 

17)  A non-Sunday away team that won more than 6 road games in the wildcard round 1-10 (-8.5), 2-10 straight up (-9.8)....VERSUS Vikings

Correction in angle number 17 it should read.....

"A non-Sunday away team that won more than 5 away games, playing in the wildcard round" 

Query text....playoffs = 1 and tS(W@A, N=8)>5 and A and p:playoffs=0 and day!=Sunday