Tech angles week III

13-8 ATS, season to date.

Use these if you resonate, as I've mentioned before maybe 10-20% of handicappers are technical handicappers (left brained) and 80-90% use their "gut" or "it's the matchups" (right brained) handicappers.

1)  Home favorites week three that lost on the road last week 41-78-5 ATS, 34.5% (-3.13), VERSUS Bears, Vikings, Seahawks, Chargers

2)  A home favorite whose previous two games were....Home Dog winner, away loser 40-64-1 ATS, 38.5% (-2.25)....VERSUS Bears, Seahawks, Vikings,...in week 3 this has been 3-4 ATS.

3)  A home dog that won their prior game as an away dog, facing a team that won their previous game as a home favorite, 93-56-3 ATS, 62.4%, (+3.20)....ON Dolphins, Cardinals....in September games this has been 21-6-1 ATS, going 18-10 straight up. 

4)  Since 2014, away teams of less than a three point favorite have been 92-61 ATS if off a home loss before week 7.....in other words those teams off a home loss  are either away dogs or less than a 3 point away favorite.....92-61-4 ATS, (+1.68), 60.1%.....Steelers, Raiders, Saints (check line on Raiders and Steelers).

5)  Home favorites week three with one win playing an opponent also with one win....32-50 ATS, 39% (-3.06)....VERSUS Chargers, Vikings, Browns

Good fortune to you this week.

Plays:

1)  Cardinals +4

2)  49ers +2

3)  Steelers +3'

4)  Cowboys +127

5)  Jaguars +7

6)  Colts +6'

7)  Texans +2'

8)  49ers/Broncos UNDER 45

9)  Raiders/Titans OVER 45'

Falcons and Lions are indicated plays, but there is an inordinate amount of the public on them as of now....will pass on those games unless the consensus comes down later in the week.

I like IND.  Good luck this week.

@Indigo999

 appreciate these...thx and gl.

Another angle from further research...

6)  Week three away favorites of <=3 off a loss.....4-14 ATS.....this contradicts #4 in my first post....evidently the dividing line between playing a team off a loss that is an away dog,  and conversely playing an away favorite off a loss is significant......VERSUS Raiders, Ravens, and Saints

I am making additional f plays, this is a lot of plays and wouldn't expect to have nearly as many plays in future weeks....listed afterwards is the public consensus percentage of each of these indicated teams using VSIN's statistics.....I am only in rare circumstances this season playing a team with a consenus over 50%.....the Steelers were one of those teams on Thursday and we all know how that worked out.  I have the 49ers as a play, but may buy back on the Broncos after the later afternoon games tomorrow.

Adding:

10)  Panthers +2'..............31%

11)  Titans +2...................27%

12)  Patriots +2'................12%

13)  Dolphins +4'...............22%

______________________________

1)  Cardinals +4...............27%......Rams look like fades this season as favorites,...I might fade them every game they play as a home favorite off a win.

2)  49ers +2...................73%......75% chance I will come back on the Broncos to give me a slight possibility of middling...would be nice if DB became +3.

3)  Steelers +3'..............60%.............loser

4)  Cowboys +127..........46% (against the spread)

5)  Jaguars +7...............30%....obviously the public isn't buying the idea that the Jaguars are much better this season.

6)  Colts +6'.................8%......this is the Colts' season right here, and if they lose this and next week versus the Titans Reich will be fired.

7)  Texans +2'.............46%.....I'd say Lovie will want this one pretty badly.

8)  49ers/Broncos UNDER 45...52%......both totals started out the week  at less than 50% of the betting population, and will stay on both of them.

9)  Raiders/Titans OVER 45'....58%....at least one of these teams need to make some plays this week, which neither of them have so far.

Home underdogs that outrush their opponent cover 71.7% of the time in the regular season. (Away dogs that outrush their opponent cover 74.7% of the time.)

We would expect that at least the Colts would outrush their opponent tomorrow.

@Indigo999

 thankyou for your research..what data base do you use?

I use killersports.com

Good fortune today.

Thks for your datas, 

I like panthers 

Az

And you think colts should win vs chiefs? 

I've played the Colts and the Panthers

Here's another angle I've uncovered....teams that won between 4 and 8 games last season have been 23-55-2 as home favorites week 3/game number 3.....VERSUS Bears, Seahawks (and Broncos when they were favored earlier in the week).

Those teams have been only 4-23-1 ATS if off an away loss.....3-12-1 ATS, 4-12 straight up if off an away loss and favored by 3 or less.

Plays:

1)  Cardinals +4

2)  49ers +2

3)  Steelers +3'.............................loser

4)  Cowboys +127

5)  Jaguars +7

6)  Colts +6'.................................winner

7)  Texans +2'...............................loser

8)  49ers/Broncos UNDER 45

9)  Raiders/Titans OVER 45'.............winner

10)  Panthers +2'..............31%......winner

11)  Titans +2...................27%.....winner

12)  Patriots +2'................12%.....loser

13)  Dolphins +4'...............22%....winner

Plays:

1)  Cardinals +4...........................loser

2)  49ers +2.............Broncos +1'

3)  Steelers +3'.............................loser

4)  Cowboys +127

5)  Jaguars +7.............................winner

6)  Colts +6'.................................winner

7)  Texans +2'...............................loser

8)  49ers/Broncos UNDER 45

9)  Raiders/Titans OVER 45'.............winner

10)  Panthers +2'..............31%......winner

11)  Titans +2...................27%.....winner

12)  Patriots +2'................12%.....loser

13)  Dolphins +4'...............22%....winner

Coming back on the Broncos +1' with a middle possibility with SF +2.

1)  Cardinals +4...........................loser

2)  49ers +2................................winner.............Broncos +1',...winner,...MIDDLED IT!

3)  Steelers +3'.............................loser

4)  Cowboys +127

5)  Jaguars +7.............................winner

6)  Colts +6'.................................winner

7)  Texans +2'...............................loser

8)  49ers/Broncos UNDER 45...........winner

9)  Raiders/Titans OVER 45'.............winner

10)  Panthers +2'..............31%......winner

11)  Titans +2...................27%.....winner

12)  Patriots +2'................12%.....loser

13)  Dolphins +4'...............22%....winner

9-4 ATS for the week with Dallas pending, 22-12 for the season.

Early plays for October 1st below....I'll do a write up on the relevant angles in the next couple of days.

Seahawks +6, Cardinals +1, Jets +4, Falcons +3

Other indicated plays include Titans and Dolphins, but there is heavy early betting on each of these teams and if that continues I will filter them out.

@Indigo999

 nicely done 999

Thanks,...looks like you're having an awesome year....congrats.

Dallas gets the win at +127 I got very early in the week to conclude a 10-4 week, 23-12 for the season so far.  The first four weeks are usually the easiest, and then things tend to get more difficult.

great work 

@Indigo999

 I don’t think there are any words you could write or analyses you I could perform that would make me take the Jets under ANY circumstances! 

terrific job on the picks / writeups btw 

Thanks guys.....the anti-consensus plays dogs, especially away dogs are hitting an absurd percentage so far....I don't expect that to change in week four, as weeks three and four are dog weeks.

I like SEA and NYJ in week #4.

Congratulations on your stellar season.

@DogbiteWilliams