Tampa's Pass Defense

Ranked #32. Bottom of the NFL.

However!

Tampa's Run Defense? Ranked #1. Top of the NFL.

Is there any chance their defensive passing stats are skewed because of how good their run defense is? Their opponents are averaging 45 rushing yards for the entire game. If you are going to average 4.5 first downs worth of rushing all day, don't you think you would be passing more? If you are passing more than average, would it not be reasonable to assume you also may put up higher numbers than average?

What do some of you guys that really know the Bucs think? Is their passing D that bad or are they just getting an extra burden because of how good the run D is?

Their pass D is in shambles right now; doesn't help they have guys out.  They'll have practice guys in the secondary tonight.

But will Philly be able to expose that?  Do you trust Hurts throwing the ball more than him using his legs?  Half of Philly's TD's have come on the ground.  Of the 5 passing TD's, 2 were to a guy who is out tonight (Goedert).  

But a smart coach like Arians will scheme up a defense that counters this deficiency.  If TB know the passing game will be the predominant MO tonight, they can negate some of the effects of that poor secondary.  Good coaches can do that.

I can see Ertz having a big game tonight, but again if Arians plans for that, they won't be too surprised by it and can limit the effects Ertz can have.

Tom had a bad thumb last week and threw for 5 TD's...  Is Miami that much worse than Philly?

I'm on TB.  I'm definitely against the Covers crowd tonight though.

GL.

@Battalion74

 I agree with your thinking about Arians scheming to make up for it. Hurts has been so inconsistent I don't trust he will be able to take advantage but then again if tonight he is on fire maybe he can. I went with TB because of how inconsistent the Eagles are, Arians scheming for them and of course, Brady. I did buy them down to -5.5 and have them on the moneyline on another ticket. Good luck to you as well. 

When your up 20 points teams tend to stop running and go pass happy. Bucs played probably the best passing attack and offense Dallas Cowboys and out passed them, went to LA Rams at full strength offense with Stafford, blew out Falcons but Falcons-Ryan threw the ball a thousand times added to Falcons stats but they were still smashed, then the Return Home Game for Brady in Foxboro is in outlier, completely nuked the vaulted Dolphins defense in Miami and shutdown the Dolphins who had to throw to try and catch up. BRADY 15 TDs, #2 NFL, 2 INTs 5th NFL , 1767 yards #1 NFL QBR 5th . Facing Cowboys,@ Patriots and @Rams. Hurts 1373 12th, 7 TDs 17th, 3 Ints 12th, QBR 28th in NFL , 0-2 @ home.

Side note, in Philly area, Delaware and South Jersey could see a 6.5 as Eagles action is insane. TAMPA-7 +$105 in some places late betting is 81% Eagles

@Battalion74

 Arians was unable to stop the Patriots and their rookie QB who threw on literally every down and the Bucs knew what they were going to do. The Pats last possession in the pouring rain, it had stopped on Tampa's previous drive, Jones picked them apart, dinking and dunking perhaps but 100% effective. Simple game plan by the Pats and the Bucs were fortunate to win while failing to cover the spread. Brady really missed Gronk that game and no Gronk tonight either.

@dsr521

 I know the Bucs, watched almost every game for the last umpteen years. Their run defense is that good and pass defense is that bad, especially with 3 good starting DBs out. The Pats game was a perfect example, they rarely ran, the short passing was their running game. Nickel and dimed the Pats to a near win and that's with Jones, not the athlete Hurt is. Dink and dunk, dink and dunk, scramble for 20 yards, throw an occasional deep pass to keep them on their toes, and probably score a TD while they're at it. It will be a close game

@mrusso

 The weather at Foxboro was insanely bad looked like a hurricane . It is perrrrfect weather in Philly tonight.   Jones is a 1st round pick many thought he would go #3. Hurts was a  reach in 2nd round. Hurts is a gamer for sure but won't be in Philly next year. Brady will remember the Eagles and Foles beating him in that amazing Super Bowl. 

@FRANKtheBANKss

 It was bad weather for both teams, except on each teams last drive, cleared up for Tampa and started pouring as soon as the Pats got the ball yet Jones drove them down the field, 10 yds at a time only to watch the game winning FG attempt doink off the goalpost. Your rationale doesn't work, sorry.

@mrusso

 Patriots have Belicheck and better players also the emotions of the game for Brady were overwhelming. Eagles have a bunch of clown coaches picked by Howie and the Trust fund owner. You simply can't compare the Pats gane with the game tonight, it is night and day. 

TB -7 (-105)

GL ladies

@bleek88

 -$105 is a bad #. Already have +$105

Sorry +$110 now all the juicy Eagles public money pouring in wait..be patient 

Comparing Jones and Hurts is apples and oranges.  Plus Jones had Belichek on his side in arguably the most hyped up place regular season game in recent memory.  The game itself was an outlier; I wouldn’t use that to define Brady or the Bucs at all.  It was a one off.

The advanced line and the current number are the same, with all the money coming in on TB, their injuries and Brady’s bad thumb, where is the move to +7.5?  

I think the pros know where this game is headed, a double digit Bucs win. 

@Battalion74

 It hasn't gone to 7.5 despite the far greater number of bets being on Tampa. Why is that? Not because the oddsmakers think the Bucs will win by DDs, you got it ass backwards, because of sharp money on the Eagles.

@FRANKtheBANKss

 It's football, every game is unique. Bits and pieces here and there when properly added together decide the winner, whether it's the coaches, players, or bettors

@mrusso

 Not True, 58 to 42% hard to pass up a home team getting a touchdown 

@FRANKtheBANKss

 What? Think I'm done here. GL in whatever the hell you're doing-

@mrusso

 Sorry but sharp money is not holding this back, always funny to read when folks use that term.

@Battalion74

 Laughing all the way to the bank. Use to live in Vegas and learned to bet there. Try listening and learning. You people think you know it all and in reality you know very little about sports betting.

@dsr521

 Sure glad I bought those points!