Posted:
#1
I've posted and documented this record on another site for the past two years. If anyone would like some validation I would gladly provide it. My main bet is props as I turn my fantasy football knowledge into plays. As it sucks giving up 15% juice on props I have had success the past two years,
I think with my success the last two years I want to give more folks to opportunity to look at the plays I make. I understand props are not as popular as its hard to find the same line as I use if you dont have the same book.
Anyways I will be posting my plays here this year also, and for the first time I am making some future plays on sportsbook.com
A couple notes for new folks looking at the picks or others who have followed in the past.
I'm going to be using sportsbook and 5dimes this year to try to get some better lines on my plays. I'm trying to have my programming buddy write something up where he can basically shop the lines for me automatically and figure out if one of the two sites are giving better odds. In the past I have only used sportsbook.com
As far as these futures these are right up my ally. Because of Fantasy Football I do my own projections for each and every NFL team. This takes me many many many hours of work, but I calculate each and every pass, rush and reception per player. This makes these bets fairly easy for me as I use my projections and find the biggest difference possible to make these bets. I would like to be able to share all the stats for others to use for FF or for these bets and and trying to get my programming buddy to be able to post all of this on a website or blog. It has team by team stats along with customizable scoring for anyone who wants to use it as FF.
Hopefully we can get this website up by the beginning of August, but its on him since I have most of my early projections done.
There should be some more, as I have about 12 teams left to still project and I will post the plays as I get my stats done.
A couple notes on these bets.
1 - Obviously it's tough because these basically tie up your funds for about 5 month
2 - Injuries! I really don't try to predict injuries when doing my stats on a per player basis but there are some guys who have historically never or rarely played all 16 games. IE Mike Vick, so there are a few guys who I will only poroject 14 or 15 games, but the majority of guys I have playing all 16 games. However we could have the lock of the century and if a guy goes down for a week or two then you are going to lose the bet.
3 - Week 17 resting players. Hopefully this doesn't come into play too much but the final risk if a team locks up a playoff spot early and rests their guys in week 17.
I think with my success the last two years I want to give more folks to opportunity to look at the plays I make. I understand props are not as popular as its hard to find the same line as I use if you dont have the same book.
Anyways I will be posting my plays here this year also, and for the first time I am making some future plays on sportsbook.com
A couple notes for new folks looking at the picks or others who have followed in the past.
I'm going to be using sportsbook and 5dimes this year to try to get some better lines on my plays. I'm trying to have my programming buddy write something up where he can basically shop the lines for me automatically and figure out if one of the two sites are giving better odds. In the past I have only used sportsbook.com
As far as these futures these are right up my ally. Because of Fantasy Football I do my own projections for each and every NFL team. This takes me many many many hours of work, but I calculate each and every pass, rush and reception per player. This makes these bets fairly easy for me as I use my projections and find the biggest difference possible to make these bets. I would like to be able to share all the stats for others to use for FF or for these bets and and trying to get my programming buddy to be able to post all of this on a website or blog. It has team by team stats along with customizable scoring for anyone who wants to use it as FF.
Hopefully we can get this website up by the beginning of August, but its on him since I have most of my early projections done.
There should be some more, as I have about 12 teams left to still project and I will post the plays as I get my stats done.
A couple notes on these bets.
1 - Obviously it's tough because these basically tie up your funds for about 5 month
2 - Injuries! I really don't try to predict injuries when doing my stats on a per player basis but there are some guys who have historically never or rarely played all 16 games. IE Mike Vick, so there are a few guys who I will only poroject 14 or 15 games, but the majority of guys I have playing all 16 games. However we could have the lock of the century and if a guy goes down for a week or two then you are going to lose the bet.
3 - Week 17 resting players. Hopefully this doesn't come into play too much but the final risk if a team locks up a playoff spot early and rests their guys in week 17.
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