Posted:
#51
Skid mark
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suuma's wildcard round 2015
Posted:
#52
Agree with both your picks. 
Chiefs need to jump out early, which I believe they will do. If Houston gets an early lead and the fans get loud - could be a long day...
KC Chiefs 27-17
Pittsburgh has Big Ben and his experience (also some great WR's). The Bengals are better everywhere else and a much better team.
Cincy 23-21
BOL 
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Posted:
#58
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Cincinnati Bengals +3 or ML
Here is what I've written about Cincy and AJ McCarron before the season: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102156091
And after 16 games they have shown they are a very good Football team. Overall they are the better team than the Steelers. Lewis has not won a playoff game with them but they never had the personnel or matchup they have this time. So the only reason to go against them would be AJ McCarron for me, but is he a downgrade over Andy Dalton? The reason the Bengals are +3 at home is because its AJ vs. Ben. With Andy it would probably be Bengals -2.5 or -3. Is AJ 5-6 points worse than Andy? I don't think so. This kid is a proven winner. He is 2-1 and played the best half at Denver I've seen for a long while from any QB. They have adjusted their offense to him, playing conservative, get Hill/Bernard into the game along with some wildcat looks for Sanu and let McCarron make some throws to exploit mismatches this great receiving corps can create. They are playing at home, have an overall great team on both sides of the ball, top-5 OL, 2nd best scoring defense, deep secondary. This is a favorable setup when having a playoff home game.
The Steelers are just not the same. Can they prove me wrong? Yeah of course but I don't see it by now. Ben has 21TD and 16INT in about 12 games this season. There is a reason he was so "bad". Le'Veon Bell was a HUGE loss for this offense because of his pass-catching ability. He is a whole dimension for this offense. Martavis Bryant had some issues here and there and he struggled down the stretch. Now De'Angelo Williams who stepped in as a very good backup for Bell by averaging 4.5 YPC, is down. Against this defense, the Steelers desperately need to get their run game going to get Bryant & ABrown in man coverage or soft zone spots. I just can't see Tussaint, Todman and Johnson running the show. Look what the Steelers did vs. the Browns without a running game. And the Bengals' front seven is 5 levels superior than the Browns'. The Patriots can win without running the ball a single time but can the Steelers? Brown was targeted 13.2 times over the final 6 weeks. Without stacking the box, the Bengals can show some more nickle looks and contain Brown over the top with a safety. Not to mention the best pass-rushing tandem in Dunlap and Atkins who will have more time because the Steelers will face some more 3rd and longs than they would like to.
Overall, I have not wasted a single thought in taking the Steelers. Lewis will get his first playoff win with the Bengals and then Dalton comes back from injury and gets his a*s kicked by a Pats team that is on 4 weeks of rest. The Steelers front seven is pretty good/solid but the secondary is still below average and they should get torched here and there. Still undecided whether to make it a big play. Depends on the final line I will get.
Cincinnati Bengals +3 or ML
Here is what I've written about Cincy and AJ McCarron before the season: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102156091
And after 16 games they have shown they are a very good Football team. Overall they are the better team than the Steelers. Lewis has not won a playoff game with them but they never had the personnel or matchup they have this time. So the only reason to go against them would be AJ McCarron for me, but is he a downgrade over Andy Dalton? The reason the Bengals are +3 at home is because its AJ vs. Ben. With Andy it would probably be Bengals -2.5 or -3. Is AJ 5-6 points worse than Andy? I don't think so. This kid is a proven winner. He is 2-1 and played the best half at Denver I've seen for a long while from any QB. They have adjusted their offense to him, playing conservative, get Hill/Bernard into the game along with some wildcat looks for Sanu and let McCarron make some throws to exploit mismatches this great receiving corps can create. They are playing at home, have an overall great team on both sides of the ball, top-5 OL, 2nd best scoring defense, deep secondary. This is a favorable setup when having a playoff home game.
The Steelers are just not the same. Can they prove me wrong? Yeah of course but I don't see it by now. Ben has 21TD and 16INT in about 12 games this season. There is a reason he was so "bad". Le'Veon Bell was a HUGE loss for this offense because of his pass-catching ability. He is a whole dimension for this offense. Martavis Bryant had some issues here and there and he struggled down the stretch. Now De'Angelo Williams who stepped in as a very good backup for Bell by averaging 4.5 YPC, is down. Against this defense, the Steelers desperately need to get their run game going to get Bryant & ABrown in man coverage or soft zone spots. I just can't see Tussaint, Todman and Johnson running the show. Look what the Steelers did vs. the Browns without a running game. And the Bengals' front seven is 5 levels superior than the Browns'. The Patriots can win without running the ball a single time but can the Steelers? Brown was targeted 13.2 times over the final 6 weeks. Without stacking the box, the Bengals can show some more nickle looks and contain Brown over the top with a safety. Not to mention the best pass-rushing tandem in Dunlap and Atkins who will have more time because the Steelers will face some more 3rd and longs than they would like to.
Overall, I have not wasted a single thought in taking the Steelers. Lewis will get his first playoff win with the Bengals and then Dalton comes back from injury and gets his a*s kicked by a Pats team that is on 4 weeks of rest. The Steelers front seven is pretty good/solid but the secondary is still below average and they should get torched here and there. Still undecided whether to make it a big play. Depends on the final line I will get.
Taking AJ McDonalds over Big Ben is never a smart proposition.
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Posted:
#65
Quote Originally Posted by PhillyBrown:
God, I bet you were creaming it at the thought of posting that. If you're not going to post any picks why don't you just piss off? I've never seen you post a winner or a dexent writeup.
Can you please explain to me what in this sentence that I wrote makes you so upset?
"Not sure why you didn't take the points. Bad luck."
I mean I'm sorry you lost following suuma but there's absolutely no need to lash out your anger towards an innocent bystander.
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Posted:
#66
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:
Not sure why you didn't take the points. Bad luck.
Not sure why you didn't take the points. Bad luck.
It's pretty simple:
A spread of between +1 and +2.5 comes into play just 6% of the time. When I placed my bet, the line was Bengals +1.5. So I would have had to buy up to +2 or +2.5 or even -3 at around -130. The ML was +117 so there was a difference of atleast 30% between the ML and the spread that would have gotten me a push or a win. Like I said, 94 times out of 100 the spread doesn't get you a win, so it's money left on the table in the long rung. You will be way more profitable in the long run if you take the ML between +100 and +135 than taking a spread of +1 to +2.5.
I think you are smart enough to get that. I had this scenario about 6-8 times during the season and it worked well. I am trying to get my average juice to +100. This time I got crushed, it happens.
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Posted:
#68
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:
I see. I was just watching a YouTube clip off Sportsbook Review site. Apparently teams with less than 6 point spread also win game straight up 90% of time. So it makes sense to sprinkle some ML action if the price is right.
I see. I was just watching a YouTube clip off Sportsbook Review site. Apparently teams with less than 6 point spread also win game straight up 90% of time. So it makes sense to sprinkle some ML action if the price is right.
| SU: | 1530-340-4 (7.32, 81.8%) |
|---|
Maybe your trend goes back far more but yeah exactly.
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Posted:
#71
Sunday:
Seahakws -5 +102 (big)
Packers ML (how much depending on status of Bakthiari)
Some more information:
The Redskins secondary is garbage. They are below-average against the pass on a weak schedule. They needed to pick up Cary Williams who wasn't good enough for the Eagles in 2014. LT David Bakhtiari is expected to come back (missed vs. Cards & Vikes) which is huge for the Packers. Rodgers will have more time and they will adjust their play-calling to exploit the Redskins' weakness at secondary.
The GB defense is #6 in pass DVOA, which a lot of people underestimate. The Redskins have played 4 teams that rank #12 or higher and went 1-3. Their win was vs. the Rams off their win vs. Seattle. Rams had like 20 missed tackles that game. Skins lost the other 3 games by 19.6 PPG and scored an avg of 15.3 PPG. Vs. the Jets they benefited from heavy field position due to turnovers. They still lost 20-34.
Seahakws -5 +102 (big)
Packers ML (how much depending on status of Bakthiari)
Some more information:
The Redskins secondary is garbage. They are below-average against the pass on a weak schedule. They needed to pick up Cary Williams who wasn't good enough for the Eagles in 2014. LT David Bakhtiari is expected to come back (missed vs. Cards & Vikes) which is huge for the Packers. Rodgers will have more time and they will adjust their play-calling to exploit the Redskins' weakness at secondary.
The GB defense is #6 in pass DVOA, which a lot of people underestimate. The Redskins have played 4 teams that rank #12 or higher and went 1-3. Their win was vs. the Rams off their win vs. Seattle. Rams had like 20 missed tackles that game. Skins lost the other 3 games by 19.6 PPG and scored an avg of 15.3 PPG. Vs. the Jets they benefited from heavy field position due to turnovers. They still lost 20-34.
0
Posted:
#72
My efficiency numbers had Seattle as the best team in 2013. This year they are #1 once again and during their 8-2 stretch, they have posted numbers that are way better than in 2013.
Seahawks to win SB +713
Seahawks to win NFC Championship +389
It could be over after today, but this value is incredible due to them being a 6th seed.
Seahawks to win SB +713
Seahawks to win NFC Championship +389
It could be over after today, but this value is incredible due to them being a 6th seed.
0
Posted:
#74
With you on GB, but Seattle-Minn. is a no bet for me. Normal conditions, Seahawks by 10+. Having played in 12 degree weather in college - it makes a difference - a big difference. I remember not wanting to go back out after halftime and we were winning by 14 points.
PACKERS 31-24
BOL & thanks for your informative posts!0
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