suuma's wildcard round 2015

61-51 ytd

Seattle Seahawks -5 +102 BIG PLAY

Even though having a rough start at 2-4, my power ranking has the Seahawks as the number one team after 16 games. They are ranked #3 on offense and #2 on defense. This alone tells you how hot this team is since week 7. Vikings are the worst playoff team according to my numbers. What have they done during the season to justify a +5 cover vs. the best team in the league right now? Everytime they faced a real good defense, they had almost no offensive output vs. SEA, DEN, KC, at SF (stout home defense). Only vs the Cardinals they had a solid game offensively but I have the Cards' defense ranked #9 while playing the #21 schedule. To end the season they seemed to be red-hot. They beat the Bears (must-win), dropped 49 points on the 2nd worst defense while holding their offense to 24 without their best player and won at Lambeau with a good matchup X' and Os wise while throwing for just 99 yards, for 4.1 NYPPA and getting outgained. The reason is, the Packers have a better defense than people think. This offense is trash and they won't roll on the hottest team getting their best defensive player back in Kam Chancellor. On the other side, the Seahawks offense is ON FIRE. They get Lynch (probably), Luke Willson, Russel Okung & J.R. Sweezy back. The only solid thing about Minny was their defense but did they face great offenses? Yeah at home, the Seahawks and they couldn't stop them. They even couldn't stop the Broncos early in the season. They got the Lions twice during their weak first season half, they got the Chiefs before they started their streak, they got the Giants w/o OBJ, and so on. Mix their schedule and they likely finish 8-8. I had the Vikings as a big improvement and a wildcard team this year but I expected much more from their offense which is garbage. They were averaging 5.9 NYPPA over the season, this is an improvement of just 0.2 to 2014. They are in the same category as the Browns passing-wise. The Seahawks are on a mission (remember Malcom Butler?) and they will get past the Vikes very easily. Considering the Vikes TT under as well.

More coming.

The Vikings Offensive line did poorly last time vs Seattle and I do not see that changing this time around as well..Good Bet i think and Good Luck 

Yeah Vikes have an adj. sack rate of 8.8%, good for 29th in the league. Seahawks are not a blitzing team that's why they don't generate the most sacks but their front-four will pressure the heck out of Teddy. Can see him throwing 2 picks.

Good thoughts Suuma, best of luck 

So far so good 

Sweet...on it as well.  Don't care if it's -55 degrees, think Seattle rolls in this game.  

With you here got it early at -4.  My only worry is the weather.  10am start for Seattle plus forecast of 1 degree at gametime.  I think I like MIN TT Under better but a D/ST score and you probably lose that.  All that said I see SEA winning by 7+.      

Gl this week Suuma

Nice writeup.

GL Suuma

GL - I am on seahawks too

Seattle seems to pick the right time to come alive.  6-1 in the last 7... average of 31 pts per gm....Russell Wilson is playing the best football and getting great support from the O line.  He brings it again this Sunday.  I don't believe there will be a blowout but Hawks win this.  BTW, Vikings are 4-3 in the last 7 and average 24 pts.  Even if Lynch does not play at least the Vikings have to plan for it.... B.O.L Suuma

I know about a system that selects SEA and KC this week.  I am loathe to bet road favorites so I will pass.  Good luck to suuma and all of his fans.

The way I crunch the numbers at Football Outsiders makes SEA the #1 team despite bieng a sixth seed.  They do seem capable of covering that spread despite the good record of home dogs in the Wild Card round.

My wife's family from Seattle... I'll might be on it with you Suuma

Go Hawks!
GL this weekend Buddy

the X factor will be the extreme cold polar air at game time -1 and below tough to handicap   

seattle is also very smart with cold weather

Sorry they will save themselves the embarrassment in Carolina and just lose on purpose.  Haven't you read?  

Cincinnati Bengals +3 or ML

Here is what I've written about Cincy and AJ McCarron before the season: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102156091

And after 16 games they have shown they are a very good Football team. Overall they are the better team than the Steelers. Lewis has not won a playoff game with them but they never had the personnel or matchup they have this time. So the only reason to go against them would be AJ McCarron for me, but is he a downgrade over Andy Dalton? The reason the Bengals are +3 at home is because its AJ vs. Ben. With Andy it would probably be Bengals -2.5 or -3. Is AJ 5-6 points worse than Andy? I don't think so. This kid is a proven winner. He is 2-1 and played the best half at Denver I've seen for a long while from any QB. They have adjusted their offense to him, playing conservative, get Hill/Bernard into the game along with some wildcat looks for Sanu and let McCarron make some throws to exploit mismatches this great receiving corps can create. They are playing at home, have an overall great team on both sides of the ball, top-5 OL, 2nd best scoring defense, deep secondary. This is a favorable setup when having a playoff home game.

The Steelers are just not the same. Can they prove me wrong? Yeah of course but I don't see it by now. Ben has 21TD and 16INT in about 12 games this season. There is a reason he was so "bad". Le'Veon Bell was a HUGE loss for this offense because of his pass-catching ability. He is a whole dimension for this offense. Martavis Bryant had some issues here and there and he struggled down the stretch. Now De'Angelo Williams who stepped in as a very good backup for Bell by averaging 4.5 YPC, is down. Against this defense, the Steelers desperately need to get their run game going to get Bryant & ABrown in man coverage or soft zone spots. I just can't see Tussaint, Todman and Johnson running the show. Look what the Steelers did vs. the Browns without a running game. And the Bengals' front seven is 5 levels superior than the Browns'. The Patriots can win without running the ball a single time but can the Steelers? Brown was targeted 13.2 times over the final 6 weeks. Without stacking the box, the Bengals can show some more nickle looks and contain Brown over the top with a safety. Not to mention the best pass-rushing tandem in Dunlap and Atkins who will have more time because the Steelers will face some more 3rd and longs than they would like to.

Overall, I have not wasted a single thought in taking the Steelers. Lewis will get his first playoff win with the Bengals and then Dalton comes back from injury and gets his a*s kicked by a Pats team that is on 4 weeks of rest. The Steelers front seven is pretty good/solid but the secondary is still below average and they should get torched here and there. Still undecided whether to make it a big play. Depends on the final line I will get.

Winning the division was a massive deal for the Vikings.  Green Bay had owned that division.  See a sense of accomplishment no matter what happens.  Hey at least we won the division.  First playoff game for Teddy and company, Zim hasn't won a playoff game as a coach since 1996 with cowboys and been in the league every year since. Seattle veteran tough nosed bunch, def not as good as last year but def good enough to beat Minny.  

On both of those Summa... GL throughout the playoffs sir 

Lets get them during the playoffs!!