Superbowl Rams vs Bengals. Dont overthink it.

"Stop thinking and follow me, I will make you masters of the earth" ~ (Adolf Hitler in his speeches to the German people)

@lancer89074

 Sounds more like Trump to his idiot followers. You know the same type of people who are truck drivers in Canada

You did see this horrible Bengals OL stop a pretty good Chiefs D the second half of the season when they moved Jones inside and added Ingram. Burrows escapes very well too. And I can’t stand the non stop narrative about the great Rams defense. It’s 1.5  great players IMO. The half is Miller the last month

The biggest overrated DB in football is Ramsey. Ask Mike Evans. Brady had no problem moving on them with one good WR. Jimmy G even did in all 3 games. If his coach didn’t make horrible calls in the 4th quarter.. 

When you input your data you have to weigh recency. I hope you do. Kicking.. a missed FG and a made long FG are like plus or minus turnovers . You know what that means here. Gay is clearly injured.

So adding all this to as you say McVay’s stupidity and lack of adjustments because he can’t see the game up high, I can’t see any model predicting a blow out. But the magic seems to favor the Rams. No way a Safety plays this good off the street. No way Miller plays this good ever again. No way you typically get a talented wideout like OBJ mid season AND he finally plays great

And most importantly, NO WAY ever should you see the stupidest GM in the league get rewarded by not having any draft picks for 5 years like this.   His OL, Linebackers, backfield should be very beatable. The Rams overall roster should never get this far just if Donald or Stafford missed games. Is no draft picks is the way, then how come NE, Baltimore, GB, KC never did it?

So there’s more variance in the NFL but I just believe of all things stars can align right and it’s the Rams year. You clearly admitted KC should be here. Would they beat KC? No freaking way. 

I’m not stepping in front of this but it’ll be close especially when Stafford or McVay can blow leads and Joe B is the next Joe Montana.. I would not count any money in the 4th

P. S. Skyline Chili is tremendous, it’s just combining spaghetti with a meat sauce. And why did you give up meat? If I gave animals more credit I might but it’s very hard to give up for me. 

@ dyamarik

Long answer ahead....

Basically - how I decide what to wager and how to stake has a subjective component (my gut), and an objective component (stats analysis through software, and staking through software). 

The gut part is easy.  Every week - before I see any lines - I do an exercise where I sit down with all NFL and NCAAF games - I have 2 columns on a spreadsheet - and I simply guess what I think A. the actual betting line will be (predictive of betting patterns) and in the second column B. what the line should be based on my gut predictive results.  Sometimes A and B are 20 points apart - but that is the whole point of the exercise.

Now for the software / stats side.  In 2006, me and 2 other forum posters got together after participating in a thread about developing some sort of predictive software.  One of the guys is a data engineer, so he really led the way on what should be in there and how to process it.  I am somewhat dangerous in data - but I am not at his level - but we had a collaboration and came up with a model.  We hired people on freelance sites like Fiver to do the work because none of us really knew software.  About a year later - and at a split cost of about 3k each - we had what we wanted and still use it today.

Basically, I have a dashboard where I can give values to importance of many factors.  Things like turnovers, qbs, run game, pass game etc.  Once importance values are set, it pulls stats live off of the internet (the source of stats can be changed fairly easily, and I have done this several times with some help with the advancement of adjusted stats for SOS).  Then I set how many simulations I want to run, and it gives me a distribution that is cut in several different ways.

The single most important result is the median line.  That median line by itself has beaten the final spread at pinnacle for 11 of the 14 years I have used it.  Not by much (best year was 57%), but by enough to give me a start.  It also gives me other results like standard deviation - which is translated in to a variance factor, and final score totals (which as I mentioned in a previous post, are not a focus for me).

(Continued)

I like betting games with high standard deviations.  The way I look at it is....  If the result of the game is within 1 score of the spread - that is a game to avoid (for the most part).  It inevitably happens - but I actually do analysis to try and stay away from 1 score games.  So I either want to get killed in a game, or be on the side who does the killing - the worst result is a 1 score loss.  And standard deviation helps with that - and to determine staking.

The next part is more art than science.  I take my spreadsheet with the 2 columns, take the dashboard 1 pager from my stats analysis and simulations, and I do some voodoo along with some weighted objective values to come up with what makes the cut and what doesnt and a strength value between 1-10 is established for every game. 

My staking is always between 1 and 5 units - rarely 1 and rarely 5.  90% of my bets are between 2 and 4 units - so most of the time I never have more than double my smallest wager on any wager in an NFL season.  I convert the strength value to a staking amount, and that is my target for my wager.

Now.... Things come in to play like line moves, or just expense of getting a line - that make my targets sometimes unachievable.  I also "trade" lines all week by using my predictive numbers to say where a line should move (not results predictive - line movement predictive).  This generates income, but sometimes I get stuck with positions I dont necessarily want because of line moves that go against me - or other reasons.  So I then have to weigh keeping wagers on a side that I have predicted will lose the spread - because the expense of getting out is more than the chance of that team covering.

I try to make all of this as process driven as possible.  I believe in process, and objective over subjective.

Happy to discuss or answer questions if some of this doesnt make sense.

No pending requests under my email tab.

Just hit me up on twitter

I appreciate this.  And believe it or not....   If you sort through 99% on covers, there is 1% gold.  Thats why I stay around - I am always trying to mine the gold.

@mrusso

 Of course mom makes the best chili.  

BOL @vanzack

With all due respect may the best team cover & prevail either way 

Gong Hei Fat Choy 

The Chiefs just didnt respond at all to the 3.5 man rush.  I have no explanation why.

I know this feeling very very well.  You dont even have to describe it.

I dont have it on the Rams, but I have it all the time.

@Hoyasaxa

The Rams secondary is very suspect.  They have a guy playing safety who basically hasnt played for 2 years.  I do get that.  But to get to the secondary, you need time in the pocket.  Bengals supporters are pointing to the Chiefs game as the game that proves they can protect Burrow - and I dont agree.  It was a one off.  They scored 24 points against a team that went 3 and out for basically a whole half.  If they do give burrow time this week - I think they have a good chance to win - I just am betting on what I see as an advantage.

Recency is a value I can assign in what I explain above.  And I value recency.  I am not looking at week 1 stats.  And McVay....  That is a tough one for me to explain - but in this case I have convinced myself that plan A will work for the Rams.  Plan A has to work for the Rams to win.  They are not a good Plan B team because most of the time McVay doesnt have a plan B.  I am definitely aware that he is a liability - and I know I will be cursing myself at multiple points during the game when he calls a Timeout in the early 3rd to save a 5 yard delay of game penalty or punts on 4th and 2 from the +40 yard line.

And I would be on KC against the Rams for sure.  And I cant believe you like Skyline, Im not sure I can take you seriously again lol 

I gave up meat about 20 years ago for health and ethical reasons.  I have never been healthier, dont miss it a bit.

Van, I think I understand, but in case I'm lost in space, what do you mean by Median Line?

Simply put.... If you run 1k simulations, and if you ranked margin of victory from most to least - the 500th value would be the median.

Averages get skewed by outliers.  Medians are usually better when looking at distributions.

[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack]I had to put that in my thread title.  I love when people say that.  You can rest assured, I have overthought everything. NFL Season:  +27.49 unitsNFL Playoffs:  8-4  +12.95 units   Rams -4 (4.5 units)   I'm not going to waste a lot of time writing up a narrative on this game, because it has all been written.  These are the top reasons of why I think the Rams at -4 are a good bet: * There really is no comparison on any stat you want to look, or any case to be made for the Bengals O line against the Rams D line.  Burrow will have pressure, and the Bengals will have to run successfully to have a chance at scoring 20+.* Bengals defense is a terrible matchup against Rams offense.  Screens and short passing will be exploited by the Rams and should be unstoppable.* Bengals, and Joe Burrow included - have not been as good as their results in their playoff games.  The Burrow narrative is driving a false reality of what actually happened in those playoff games.  ....  Great writeup, great season Mansack!!! I have been chatting with you in threads (and now on the bird) for what seems like decades...First off, im SOOOOO glad we are in the same mindset with this game, i feel the same way, and think Akers will have a MONSTER game here. I took his rushing yards when they first got posted, and his receiving yards as well..My question is this. What would you have made the SF line against this Ciny team? and how much more would you have bet on SF?  Good luck my man, and as always.. I DO watch this system VERY closely.

GL Van..  Great  info all through this thread..  Sadly Cinny has been so good to me all year when playing them and feel I owe them a small bet..  Probably the salesperson loyalty mantra coming through on me,..  IMO will either be  easy for Rams backers or tough for the Cinny backers on the covering side..   Cinny ain't running and hiding.. Rams could..  Nice year always appreciate the threads even though most times not acknowledged..  Win or lose best threads on Covers.. Hands down..

i have a Rams future and think they are the better team. I also tend to like teams who have been in finals recently and lost to get over the hump.

However, before the Pats dynasty a lot of teams who won the SB were teams who weren't even playoff teams the year before just coming out of nowhere and the Bengals fit that profile.

Also, one thing I have been looking at the last few years is teams that are good in the 3rd quarter are often the teams that cover the most. The first drive of the 2nd half is so important. Look at the way the Bengals won - the teams they played sucked so bad the 3rd quarter and when that happens a team rarely can regain the momentum in the 4th to win.

Cinci allows by far the least 3rd quarter points on the season while LA allows the 6th most. If the Rams come out and play the 2nd half like they did vs Tampa orSF in week 18 Cinci will take them down. Teams blowing leads are so common now, and the league and refs encourage it to make the game more exciting giving the losing team chances to come back.

I anticipate a close game not a blowout, and despite some great WRs on each team I think it will be a pretty low key low scoring game like the Rams vs Pats a few years ago.

McVay definitely does some dumb things. I hated some of his 3rd down and goal line playcalls last week. But I think beating the 9ers finally was harder than beating the Bengals will be. I think Shanahan is actually really smart and McVay struggled to call plays against him, I don't think Zac Taylor is winning these games with strategy it's Burrow to Chase, a scrappy, underrated defense (do people realize Hendrickson has more sacks than Donald and Cinci has 2 top 10 sack guys?) and teams blowing it. I think that last play before HT and the score being the same as last time put it into both the Chiefs and Bengals heads that the same thing was gonna happen, and it did.

The NFL will really like it if it seems that teams who build massive stadiums and make massive trades for FAs can actually win SBs and Stafford will be getting the vet calls Burrow won't. They have Ramsey to put on Chase. The NFC West is the best division in football and the Rams won it. They beat the other 2 best teams from it in the playoffs, one that tanked at the end (Cards) but who looked like running away with it in October. The other a team who really had their number and was overall very solid in all 3 phases with probably the best all around player in the NFL in Deebo. Oh, and they also beat the champs and the goat despite spending the entire 2nd half trying to give it away with fumble after fumble. Oh, and they're at home.

@vanzack

 VERY nice write up totally agree with everything your saying Im going with rams ml I feel thats safest bet on SB. Cinci or burrow is not ready for this stage yet.. You didnt mention coaching in which zack taylor is not very good and Mcvay is top 5 coach thats been there.. Why people are betting the bengals outside of riding this Cinderella story.. If could pick 1 team for rams play in SB its cinci.. They are not very good the 5 loses rams have all those teams reached playoffs.. Its not guarantee cinci will even make playoffs next year.. GL 2 ALL.. IF bet bengals your a fool

What makes you think Stafford is ready for this stage? Or O'dell for that matter? Or even #99?

Dude is 25 and was just in a national championship 2 years ago. He was sacked 9 times and still won. He came from behind.....like  Mahomes did in super bowl year.

@vanzack

 I think most people have a better feeling about betting Cinci getting those points. But if they do they should just bet them to win outright. It's very rare for an underdog in the Super Bowl to cover and not win outright. I think its only happened like 6 times. (looking up those games for fun) So while the Rams -4 may be the uncomfortable bet for many, I believe its the right bet. I will pay to see Burrow pull another win out of his ass. Don't think its his year this year. Good luck to Rams betters 

I have overlooked it but you’re wrong with all due respect Cincinnati Bengals is the way that’s the pic you’ll see better listen to me but that’s your money not mine best of luck but I’m on the Bengals

VZ-As a rare poster, but a frequent reader, thank you for all the valuable insight. I have been betting for many years and am still learning, posters like you make that possible. Congrats on being a vegetarian. Don't eat meat or fish myself. Positive lifestyle=positive results. You feel better and so does the animal.

I'm on the Rams too. Not overthinking it.    

@1pumpchump

 Very kind, and right back at ya.

I get it.

One thing you say that reminds me of something I didnt say in the OP......

For some reason - the Rams lose focus for long periods of time in seemingly every game.  Like the second half of the Bucs game.  Or the first 40 minutes of the 49ers game.  It is almost every game.  This is one of my reasons for being so critical of McVay.

Hopefully for my sake they can overcome this disease and play a complete game.

If it's their history. Why would it change now?