Posted:
#26
Great insights, thank you for sharing Vanzack. On the same side w/ you.
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Superbowl Rams vs Bengals. Dont overthink it.
Posted:
#27
Strangely enough your predicted score of 38-16 is the exact score of SFs Superbowl win over a young Dan Marino in his first (and only) Superbowl. Just a coincidence?
I don't know about any skyway chili, I make my own and it's gooood. Won a couple local competitions, small scale but "bragging rights is bragging rights!" And my Chili's the shit!(the good shit!)
GL in your plays Van.
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:
Strangely enough your predicted score of 38-16 is the exact score of SFs Superbowl win over a young Dan Marino in his first (and only) Superbowl. Just a coincidence? I don't know about any skyway chili, I make my own and it's gooood. Won a couple local competitions, small scale but "bragging rights is bragging rights!" And my Chili's the shit!(the good shit!) GL in your plays Van.
Strangely enough your predicted score of 38-16 is the exact score of SFs Superbowl win over a young Dan Marino in his first (and only) Superbowl. Just a coincidence? I don't know about any skyway chili, I make my own and it's gooood. Won a couple local competitions, small scale but "bragging rights is bragging rights!" And my Chili's the shit!(the good shit!) GL in your plays Van.
Dont get me wrong. I love chili. And I havent eaten meat for 20 years, but I love a good veggie chili - and even Impossible meat chili.
But Skyline isnt chili - is it? I mean you are a chili guy. Is Skyline chili to you?
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#30
I have been thinking about the post from
@garbagetime
mentioning the similarity between my writeup for this game and my writeup for the Chiefs Bengals game, and implying (maybe) that because the Bengals won that game those reasons are invalid for this game....
And I wanted to point something out...
That was a one time event. Every game is. But is that game indicative of an outlier or is it indicative of a high probability outcome. You have to assign this to every game post mortem. The Bengals Chiefs game was a very big outlier. If they played 1k times, that would happen extremely infrequently. Would the Bengals win in a different way? Yes.
But I was serious when I said I would be the Chiefs -6.5 again tomorrow. And the day after. If the Bengals keep winning, then I have done something wrong - but I still say there is about a 60% cover value on the Chiefs vs the Bengals tomorrow. Last week was just one of the forty %.
I get that most people don't like to think this way. The result is the result - and proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that the result that happened was the only result that was valid. But it is an important skill for us sports gamblers to learn and trust - to not think of results as absolute.
Rant over.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
2
I mean that with all sincerity! 
Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
I had to put that in my thread title. I love when people say that. You can rest assured, I have overthought everything. NFL Season: +27.49 unitsNFL Playoffs: 8-4 +12.95 units Rams -4 (4.5 units) I'm not going to waste a lot of time writing up a narrative on this game, because it has all been written. These are the top reasons of why I think the Rams at -4 are a good bet: * There really is no comparison on any stat you want to look, or any case to be made for the Bengals O line against the Rams D line. Burrow will have pressure, and the Bengals will have to run successfully to have a chance at scoring 20+.* Bengals defense is a terrible matchup against Rams offense. Screens and short passing will be exploited by the Rams and should be unstoppable.* Bengals, and Joe Burrow included - have not been as good as their results in their playoff games. The Burrow narrative is driving a false reality of what actually happened in those playoff games. * The Rams advantages on the field will hopefully make up for the coaching disadvantages (biggest worry) I am going to concentrate most of my writeup on what I think is very interesting about this game - and something that will get lost in all of the noise of the SB but is some insight in to how I evaluate these things.... In 1k simulations, I have the Rams at a median winning value of 6.8. That means my spread for this game is Rams -6.8. That means a pretty solid play on the Rams, and a 63.4% chance they will cover or push the spread at -4 (60.9% they beat the -4). But also interesting is that in those 1k simulations - the standard deviation is 11.5 - which is in the 90+ percentile for standard deviation of my 2021 NFL season. Standard deviation can be looked at as the variance potential in a distribution of values. In general terms - 68% of the time the result will fall in the 1st standard deviation. 95% will fall within 2 standard deviations. So taking my initial spread value of Rams -6.8, it looks like the following:68% chance of final result falling between Rams -18.3 and Bengals -4.795% chance of final result falling between Rams -29.8 and Bengals -16.2 11.5 is a high NFL standard deviation. So I will be betting alt spreads also because the price I can get on alt spreads is better than my predicted chance of that result - +EV. To me, the narrative of the Rams being better than a 4 point favorite is supported by my data, as is alternative spreads. But I digress to what everyone really wants to hear at Covers... The Rams have scored 20+ in every game this season. They should score almost at will on the Bengals defense. The Bengals defensive adjustment limited the Chiefs in the last 35 minutes of the game - and basically is what allowed them to win by scoring 24. 24 points is not enough for Cincy to win this SB. Plain and simple. And they are playing an infinitely better defense than they have seen in the playoffs - and potentially all season. I think the Rams win from buzzer to buzzer - and it isnt really close. Burrow is great - he will be back - but this Bengals team is not built to win a SB right now. Rams 38 Bengals 16 GL all. The SB is always bittersweet.
I had to put that in my thread title. I love when people say that. You can rest assured, I have overthought everything. NFL Season: +27.49 unitsNFL Playoffs: 8-4 +12.95 units Rams -4 (4.5 units) I'm not going to waste a lot of time writing up a narrative on this game, because it has all been written. These are the top reasons of why I think the Rams at -4 are a good bet: * There really is no comparison on any stat you want to look, or any case to be made for the Bengals O line against the Rams D line. Burrow will have pressure, and the Bengals will have to run successfully to have a chance at scoring 20+.* Bengals defense is a terrible matchup against Rams offense. Screens and short passing will be exploited by the Rams and should be unstoppable.* Bengals, and Joe Burrow included - have not been as good as their results in their playoff games. The Burrow narrative is driving a false reality of what actually happened in those playoff games. * The Rams advantages on the field will hopefully make up for the coaching disadvantages (biggest worry) I am going to concentrate most of my writeup on what I think is very interesting about this game - and something that will get lost in all of the noise of the SB but is some insight in to how I evaluate these things.... In 1k simulations, I have the Rams at a median winning value of 6.8. That means my spread for this game is Rams -6.8. That means a pretty solid play on the Rams, and a 63.4% chance they will cover or push the spread at -4 (60.9% they beat the -4). But also interesting is that in those 1k simulations - the standard deviation is 11.5 - which is in the 90+ percentile for standard deviation of my 2021 NFL season. Standard deviation can be looked at as the variance potential in a distribution of values. In general terms - 68% of the time the result will fall in the 1st standard deviation. 95% will fall within 2 standard deviations. So taking my initial spread value of Rams -6.8, it looks like the following:68% chance of final result falling between Rams -18.3 and Bengals -4.795% chance of final result falling between Rams -29.8 and Bengals -16.2 11.5 is a high NFL standard deviation. So I will be betting alt spreads also because the price I can get on alt spreads is better than my predicted chance of that result - +EV. To me, the narrative of the Rams being better than a 4 point favorite is supported by my data, as is alternative spreads. But I digress to what everyone really wants to hear at Covers... The Rams have scored 20+ in every game this season. They should score almost at will on the Bengals defense. The Bengals defensive adjustment limited the Chiefs in the last 35 minutes of the game - and basically is what allowed them to win by scoring 24. 24 points is not enough for Cincy to win this SB. Plain and simple. And they are playing an infinitely better defense than they have seen in the playoffs - and potentially all season. I think the Rams win from buzzer to buzzer - and it isnt really close. Burrow is great - he will be back - but this Bengals team is not built to win a SB right now. Rams 38 Bengals 16 GL all. The SB is always bittersweet.
Sounds good to me. I mean how lucky can the Bungles really get?
1
Posted:
#36
DON'T GET CUTE, VAN! DON'T GET CUTE!
In all seriousness, I agree wholeheartedly.
One thing I have not seen mentioned is the Bengals are the same price in LAR as they were in TEN just two games ago. The more I think about it, the more I think the LAR home-field edge in this game is equivalent or very close to the TEN edge in that game. Team is in their own beds and at their own facilities all week. It's just a business week. Several Bucs said after last year how the "comforts of home" that week really helped them.
That means in the macro if you are playing CIN +4 in this game you would also bet TEN pk vs LAR on a neutral field. That to me is just insane. No one would do that. Value is on the Rams.
GL and congrats on a great season!
1
Posted:
#37
Van - do you have your own model/algorithm for running your "monte carlo" like simulation? Or is there a 3rd party software one can purchase that you plug and play team stats and it runs sims?
And that Std Deviation is very high considering at 1k simulations, I would expect a pretty normalized distribution, with less variance. Lot depends on how many variables go into your model.
Just curious - good luck. Seems like the right side, and with the confidence you have in your model, there's some good logic behind it.
People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
0
Posted:
#43
Smooth writeup, very well done!
Regarding the Chiefs, I was on the same boat. The Chiefs should have blown out the Bengals, and Im with you in that if they played again Id also bet them hard. KC lost because of a stupid head coach who has never understood situational football, and has made a career being an all in aggrotard, who calls every down as if he was in a 2 minute drill needing a touchdown.
0
Posted:
#45
Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:
Smooth writeup, very well done! Regarding the Chiefs, I was on the same boat. The Chiefs should have blown out the Bengals, and Im with you in that if they played again Id also bet them hard. KC lost because of a stupid head coach who has never understood situational football, and has made a career being an all in aggrotard, who calls every down as if he was in a 2 minute drill needing a touchdown.
Smooth writeup, very well done! Regarding the Chiefs, I was on the same boat. The Chiefs should have blown out the Bengals, and Im with you in that if they played again Id also bet them hard. KC lost because of a stupid head coach who has never understood situational football, and has made a career being an all in aggrotard, who calls every down as if he was in a 2 minute drill needing a touchdown.
Kc lost because the tv star qb ran in circles backwards , as told to
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