Superbowl Rams vs Bengals. Dont overthink it.

I had to put that in my thread title.  I love when people say that.  You can rest assured, I have overthought everything.

NFL Season:  +27.49 units
NFL Playoffs:  8-4  +12.95 units

Rams -4 (4.5 units)

I'm not going to waste a lot of time writing up a narrative on this game, because it has all been written.  These are the top reasons of why I think the Rams at -4 are a good bet:

* There really is no comparison on any stat you want to look, or any case to be made for the Bengals O line against the Rams D line.  Burrow will have pressure, and the Bengals will have to run successfully to have a chance at scoring 20+.
* Bengals defense is a terrible matchup against Rams offense.  Screens and short passing will be exploited by the Rams and should be unstoppable.
* Bengals, and Joe Burrow included - have not been as good as their results in their playoff games.  The Burrow narrative is driving a false reality of what actually happened in those playoff games.  
* The Rams advantages on the field will hopefully make up for the coaching disadvantages (biggest worry)

I am going to concentrate most of my writeup on what I think is very interesting about this game - and something that will get lost in all of the noise of the SB but is some insight in to how I evaluate these things....

In 1k simulations, I have the Rams at a median winning value of 6.8.  That means my spread for this game is Rams -6.8.  That means a pretty solid play on the Rams, and a 63.4% chance they will cover or push the spread at -4 (60.9% they beat the -4).

But also interesting is that in those 1k simulations - the standard deviation is 11.5 - which is in the 90+ percentile for standard deviation of my 2021 NFL season.  Standard deviation can be looked at as the variance potential in a distribution of values.  In general terms - 68% of the time the result will fall in the 1st standard deviation.   95% will fall within 2 standard deviations.

So taking my initial spread value of Rams -6.8, it looks like the following:
68% chance of final result falling between Rams -18.3 and Bengals -4.7
95% chance of final result falling between Rams -29.8 and Bengals -16.2

11.5 is a high NFL standard deviation.  So I will be betting alt spreads also because the price I can get on alt spreads is better than my predicted chance of that result - +EV.  

To me, the narrative of the Rams being better than a 4 point favorite is supported by my data, as is alternative spreads.

But I digress to what everyone really wants to hear at Covers...

The Rams have scored 20+ in every game this season.  They should score almost at will on the Bengals defense.  The Bengals defensive adjustment limited the Chiefs in the last 35 minutes of the game - and basically is what allowed them to win by scoring 24.  

24 points is not enough for Cincy to win this SB.  Plain and simple.  And they are playing an infinitely better defense than they have seen in the playoffs - and potentially all season.

I think the Rams win from buzzer to buzzer - and it isnt really close.  Burrow is great - he will be back - but this Bengals team is not built to win a SB right now. 

Rams 38 Bengals 16

GL all.  The SB is always bittersweet.  

@vanzack

Good luck on the Rams play.  

On a Cincinnati note....

Has anyone had Skyline Chili?  The official food of Cincy?

That shit is nasty.

Back when I was eating meat 20+ years ago, I had that shit on a layover in the airport.  Whoever invented that should be imprisoned.

Carry on.

My 2c isn’t needed but I usually approach the sb by looking for which team has gotten the “hype” and go against them. It has worked out great in the past 10.  Stats and records comes 2nd to me. I generally put my faith in the books knowing more than I do so if the line is not moving too much toward the unhyped team then I’m good to go…

gl Van and thanks for all the write ups Over the years 

Rams -4

haha love the tittle and love the pick, GL my man

Good luck Van.  

gl van  love the pick all the way up to Rams -7

Van , I agree with you 100 percent, CINN should not be in this SB, They should not have beat TN, That was luck, Mahomes should never have beat

Buffalo,  That was luck. What team goes full length of field in 13 seconds to tie the game , That was luck,  When CINN played KC Mahomes ran

out of luck and i bet he ($2000) he would. So i would say my prediction Rams win by more then 7. Good luck to all.

There is a lot more lack of research for Rams bettors than Bengals bettors right after the conference games. Though this game looks like Rams ML and Bengals +4 type game. The lack of research is that Bengals running the ball with Mixon can reduce the amount of sacks on Burrow. That's how a QB can survive a poor offensive line by doing more run plays.

And yet he pulled a Mahomes , vs Mahomes, by scrambling around

Interesting approach.

GL

Doing more running plays wont do it.

A successful running game might do it.

I assure you, win or lose it isnt because of a lack of research.

You just love burning tickets. Wow

Doesn’t shock me you would be on these chumps….

You can have the over hyped, I will take the better coached team…

remember I said that when the rams coaches just blunder your timeouts away and complete cost you pay day.

I will take the guy who knows mkvay better than he does…  zac knows this fool and what he thinks. Even in a Super Bowl thought process… 

I make no mistake here, but you just love burning peoples dough…

I’m the other guy!!

Bengals money line

NFL Season:  +27.49 units
NFL Playoffs:  8-4  +12.95 units

I will be watching this system closely.

Best of LUCK to one the GREATEST BROTHERS ever to post on Covers ...

I'd say sweep your board but I really hope the Bengals Win outright 

I wish you luck; I wish us all luck against the books. I highlighted a few things I think were said about the matchup with KC, too.

I think your firmest ground is the Rams defense being an actual defense, and I think we don't really know how the Bengals plan to approach that from a strategic perspective. I'm very interested in whether McVay can avoid screwing this up and/or whether Taylor can game plan around his team's apparent weaknesses. One assumes it'll be zone-zone-zone for Cincy; who knows, maybe this will be one of those games where the 24 is hard for either team to reach and it finishes 18-15.

Isn't that the truth. Soupy ground mystery meat in a sweet Middle Eastern spiced sauce, no pinto beans, and served over spaghetti. I love trying different foods, but this one just misses the mark by a mile. 

RAMS 

@Wizz_KIDD35

 Nice copy of the essay. Unfortunately I can read a Clive Cussler novel only once before I put it away. 

@vanzack

Great write-up. Thanks

Never was a fan of chili  maybe had chili once in my life if that. Mystery meat lol

LAR ML -200 7u

GL all

@garbagetime

 Absolutely correct.  Those things are very similar to the KC matchup - and including them here is not an error.

I would bet the same Chiefs bet again if they played tomorrow.  The Bengals adjustment on defense with about 5 minutes to go in the first half was something KC did not adjust to.  The Chiefs would be favored by the same -6.5 they were in the first game - and I would bet them the next 100 games.

Could it happen again against the Rams?  Yes.  But not likely IMO.

The Rams are a very good plug and play numbers wise against the Bengals as the Chiefs.  But with a better defense, and worse offense.

I don't see 18 points winning this game.  But who knows.

GL

Disgusting.

@Wizz_KIDD35

 I dont trust McVay.

I baked that in to my evaluation.

@SP-Capo

 Is Skyline actually chili?

Would a chili fan call it chili?

I am not convinced.  It is closer to marinara than Chili I think.