Had a very good weekend winning more than 8 dimes overall. Tonight’s game is very intriguing to me. You have a 45 year old QB who’s been retired for over five years trying to lead his team to a win to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot. When I capped this game, I had to cap it differently because of the QB change. When I ran my numbers like I always do, I come up with Indy being faves by - 1.575. Now Indy was dogs of + 6 and now @ + 4.5 ( RLM with over 60% of tickets on SF ) . So does that mean , that D.Jones is worth over 3.925 pts, I don’t think so. PFF ranks Colts 17th on Defense, whereas they rank SF 23rd. This site/company pulls data in so many ways , it’s actually gotta be mind boggling to figure out but, I trust their data. ELO says the Colts have a 62.8 % chance to cover this spread , who also has Indy @ a much higher defensive status based team then SF, another trusted company I’ve been using for years. SOS SF anywhere between 14Th & 27th, SOS for Indy anywhere between 11th & 16Th depending where you search. SF’s SRS metrics are @ + 5.2 , which is good but, Colts come in @ a + 7.6 much better, when I see this along with the stronger SOS , the team @ home who are dogs , win outright at a very high rate. Penalties are about even on Defense. SF @ around 6.36 per game whereas Colts are 6.29 per game. Those who read my post know that I win almost all of my games in all sports because of defensive metrics. FPI overall efficiencies have SF @ a + 59.0 , Indy + 60.6, which means that Indy is more effective in all facets of the game, Defense, Offense, and special teams. DVOA WEI , Colts rank 4th , SF ranks 7th, very close there. This will be a very close game. All metrics are extremely close. Available line yfs, Colts rank 7th , whereas SF ranks 12th, which is based off the offensive line and running game . Indy will run the ball all night long with J. Taylor( stud ) CMC , is one of my favorite RB’s of all time but , the colts know that SF has to try and run up the middle because, they rank 31st in the league in out of the numbers runs. D.Buckner is back tonight for Indy who’s there best defensive player . SF is also 31st in pressure rate , which is only 22.1% league wide. Rivers will have more time to throw tonight, than he had last week. L 4 games the colts faced the 4 best pressure rated defenses in the league, tonight they get some breathing room and they will excel. SF is also last in the league in sacks. SF is also allowing 3.6 yds after contact on defense against RB’s league wide, which is going to be their undoing tonight. I’m going Colts + 4.5 3,450/3,000 & 600/500 , two different books. GL to all of us on the Colts tonight…
on your play like your style
& Happy Holidays mah man 
Hot Forum Topics
