Another Season coming to an end with "THE BIG GAME" - who to take. Let's look at some numbers:
-4.5 Sea 11 8 3 10 1 9 (11,8,3,10 - are regular season ranks 1 and 9 are the latest numbers from sagarin)
NE 6 4 6 9 3 32 (6,4,6,9- are regular season numbers and 3 and 32 are the latest numbers from sagarin)
Sea opened at -4.5 - line has gone up to 5 and back down to 4.5 currently or possibly -5 at some places.
NE is better in Rushing rank at 6 vs 11; Passing rank at 4 vs 8; Def passing at 9 vs 10. Sea is better in Def Rushing at 3 vs 6; Sagarin rank at 1 vs 3 and Sagarin Schedule strength at 9 vs 32.
I found over the years looking at the SB a few things:
1. Dogs often win outright or possibly cover.
2. Sched strength is a key stat to look at but isn't the only thing to consider - Philly Last year Sagarin rank #1 and Sched strength 30th .
3. The game is played on a neutral field. It is a variable to consider, however, I try to eliminate that by comparing games from the superbowl.
4. What I also sliced and diced - when a Team is ranked number 1 in Sagarin rank - how did they do :
I also ran the numbers from Post season play - here's what they look like:
Sea 6 7 8 8 1 9
NE 4 12 1 3 3 32
In this case NE is better in Off rushing 4 vs 6; Def rushing 1 vs 8; Def passing 3 vs 8; while Sea is only better in Off Passing at 7 vs 12; I think NE defense is going to rise to the occasion and NE can keep it close or possibly take it su.
What's interesting when you have this scenario with Post season numbers - there's often OT - it's happened a few time in post season play. My plays:
1. NE +4.5
2. small small play on OT 8.99 to 1
Good luck all
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