SAINTS @ 49ERS FULL WRITE UP:

There is opportunity in betting games that the public has a skewed view of.  The Saints / 49ers game is one of those games.

My contention is that the Saints are not nearly as dominant as what the public thinks they are on the road playing top ranked talent, and in open air stadiums.  They have played only one playoff team on the road in an open air stadium, and lost (GB).  Even against mediocre opponents on the road their performance dropped off significantly, and add the open air stadium factor, they get even worse. 

Overall scoring:

The Saints are behind the league leading Packers in total pts scored by only 13 pts for the season.

In the SuperDome:

·       @ home the Saints average 41.6 ppg

Saints away from the SuperDome

·       They average 27.25 pts  per game on the road.  (14.35 less pts per game than @ home)

·       In open air stadiums they average 25.8 ppg (15.8 ppg less than @ home)

·       At home, their average scoring margin is +22.6 pts

·       Away their average scoring margin is +2.75 pts (a difference of almost 20 pts per game)

·       In open air stadiums, the Saints scoring margin is +1.4 (that is against 5 teams with only 2 teams with winning records:  Tennessee and Green Bay)

In open air stadiums:

·       The Saints are 3-2 for a combined score of 129-122 (average score of 25.8 to 24.4)

·       The Saints have played only 1 playoff team away/open air:  Green Bay and Lost 37-42

·       They average 25.8 ppg in open air stadiums (vs Green Bay, Jacksonville, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Tennessee.)

·       Only 1 of the Saints last 10 games were played in an open top stadium, and not counting that game; the Saints averaged 36.7 ppg, and that one game away/outdoors?  Tennessee where they hung on to win 22-17.

Vs Quality teams:

·       On the road Vs. Top 10 pass defenses, top 10 defenses, or vs top 10 pass offenses the Saints are: GB L 34-42, Jacksonville W 23-10, STL L 21-31, Atlanta  W 26-23,  2-2 with a negative combined score of  104 to 106 (ave. score of 26 to 26.5).

Turnover margin in away games:

They Vs Green Bay -1, they lost, Vs Jacksonville -1, they won,  Vs Tampa Bay -4, they lost, Vs STL -1 they lost, They played 8 away games, they lost the turnover battle in 4 of those games, and lost 3 of them.  In those 4 games they had a combined score of  98 to 109 (that includes playing Jacksonville with their league worst offense)  NOTE:  The 49ers have failed to win a games turnover battle by +1 or better only twice this season: vs Detroit, and vs Baltimore, and the Saints have a negative season turnover margin of -3.

Last Saints playoff wins on the road:

0, none, nada, not one in their history.

San Francisco:

Is a run it up the gut, and pass into the flat type of team (only 7.1 yards per pass).   The Saints have a much better run D, than their pass D.  Look for Harbaugh to use more passes (short passes into the flat) to offset N.O.’s blitz packages. 

San Fran has averaged the NFL’s  8^th best yards per rush average, but they have struggled to run the ball vs top 10 run defenses (vs Dallas 3.1 per carry, vs cincy 1.7 per carry, vs Baltimore 3.5, vs pitt 3.3).  New Orlean’s 6^th ranked run D will necessitate San Fran establish a passing game early.  San Fran will pass on the vast majority of  1^st downs, but we may see a noticeable increase of passing on 3^rd downs as well (to attack N.O.’s weak passing D, and to offset their blitz’s with short passes into the flat). 

Strategies:

Harbaugh is going to establish the short passing game right away in hopes of making the Saints loosen up their loading of the box.  49ers know they are in trouble if they don’t get an early lead so they are going to use short passes, passes to the flat, and draws to make the Saints pay for their over the top blitzes.  The 49ers get a lead they will try to slow the game down and work the clock.

Peyton:  He is going to attempt the run even less than he normally does, but that is going to leave him vulnerable to the 49ers opportunistic defense.  His team is substantially less effective on real grass, and the fact the Candlestick Park is very close to sea level will perpetuate the disadvantage of less secure footing that will hurt N.O. substantially more than it hurts the 49ers.  Should the 49ers get a lead Brees will take more chances than he normally does.

Intagiables: 

·       N.O. has went 9 straight ATS, if they beat the spread on Saturday, they will be the 3^rd  team to have a 10, or more game win streak vs ATS in the last 25 (or more) years.   If the Saints wins vs the spread for the next 3 games, it will be the first time that was done in 25 years by any team.

·       The Saints have never won a road playoff game…EVER

I have this @ the