-Marshawn Lynch lost TWO fumbles in that game. Those are the types of mistakes that an underdog can't make. After also losing a costly fumble last week, it's logical to assume that with emphasis on ball security, these turnovers may not occur in the next meeting at Qwest.
That's true. Or they might happen again, which is also true.
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Quote Originally Posted by gpngc:
#4 - The first meeting in New Orleans.
-Marshawn Lynch lost TWO fumbles in that game. Those are the types of mistakes that an underdog can't make. After also losing a costly fumble last week, it's logical to assume that with emphasis on ball security, these turnovers may not occur in the next meeting at Qwest.
That's true. Or they might happen again, which is also true.
Of course, if the Seahawks don't play better on defense (in the secondary, rushing the passer), the Saints are going to score at will again. But why can't they play better on this particular day? Especially at home?
And by the same token, why can't the Saints play even better? You see how I just answered your meaningless question with basically the same meaningless question?
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Quote Originally Posted by gpngc:
Of course, if the Seahawks don't play better on defense (in the secondary, rushing the passer), the Saints are going to score at will again. But why can't they play better on this particular day? Especially at home?
And by the same token, why can't the Saints play even better? You see how I just answered your meaningless question with basically the same meaningless question?
#5 - Special Teams. Jon Ryan is one of the best punters in the league. Olindo Mare is very good. Leon Washington can take it back anytime he touches it. Garrett Hartley can miss big kicks,
In their first meeting with the Saints, Jon Ryan punted twice and both punts were decent. Olindo Mare was a perfect 4-4 on his field goal attempts. Leon Washington returned 3 kicks for a nice 24.7-yard average. The Saints kicking game had a bad day with a botched extra point and a missed 27-yard field goal by Garrett Heatley. And still the Saints had no problem kicking their ass, 34-19.
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Quote Originally Posted by gpngc:
#5 - Special Teams. Jon Ryan is one of the best punters in the league. Olindo Mare is very good. Leon Washington can take it back anytime he touches it. Garrett Hartley can miss big kicks,
In their first meeting with the Saints, Jon Ryan punted twice and both punts were decent. Olindo Mare was a perfect 4-4 on his field goal attempts. Leon Washington returned 3 kicks for a nice 24.7-yard average. The Saints kicking game had a bad day with a botched extra point and a missed 27-yard field goal by Garrett Heatley. And still the Saints had no problem kicking their ass, 34-19.
#6 - Based on the Saints road games this season, the Seahawks will most likely be able to keep it close.
Look at New Orleans on the road this year:
-Defeated Alex Smith and the 49ers by 3.
-LOST 30-20 to Max Hall and the Arizona Cardinals in the only other game this year they went out west anywhere near Seattle.
-Destroyed Tampa Bay. Got off to a fast start and the Bucs played probably their worst game of the year.
-Destroyed Carolina. OK who cares.
-Defeated Jon Kitna and the Cowboys by 3 on Thanksgiving (helped by Garrett's ridiculous FG decisions).
-Defeated the 4-12 Bengals by 4.
-Lost in Baltimore.
-Defeated the Falcons by 3.
Vegas has the road team favored by 10+ here, but if you look at how they've actually performed away from NO, how can you back them to win in a blowout?
They had a lot of close road games, which tells me one thing - that they didn't get to play the Seahawks on the road!
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Quote Originally Posted by gpngc:
#6 - Based on the Saints road games this season, the Seahawks will most likely be able to keep it close.
Look at New Orleans on the road this year:
-Defeated Alex Smith and the 49ers by 3.
-LOST 30-20 to Max Hall and the Arizona Cardinals in the only other game this year they went out west anywhere near Seattle.
-Destroyed Tampa Bay. Got off to a fast start and the Bucs played probably their worst game of the year.
-Destroyed Carolina. OK who cares.
-Defeated Jon Kitna and the Cowboys by 3 on Thanksgiving (helped by Garrett's ridiculous FG decisions).
-Defeated the 4-12 Bengals by 4.
-Lost in Baltimore.
-Defeated the Falcons by 3.
Vegas has the road team favored by 10+ here, but if you look at how they've actually performed away from NO, how can you back them to win in a blowout?
They had a lot of close road games, which tells me one thing - that they didn't get to play the Seahawks on the road!
Vegas has the road team favored by 10+ here, but if you look at how they've actually performed away from NO, how can you back them to win in a blowout? Then if it's close in the 4th Q, the home team can definitely win it.
There you go using that "if" word again.
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Quote Originally Posted by gpngc:
Vegas has the road team favored by 10+ here, but if you look at how they've actually performed away from NO, how can you back them to win in a blowout? Then if it's close in the 4th Q, the home team can definitely win it.
both sides make good points! I had the Eagles -14 versus the Vikes on MNF. Yikes!!!!! It is the NFL, anything can happen, true. Blowouts too! The Steelers wild card win at Cincy was in part due to the injury to Carson Palmer and led to the Steelers SB win as wildcard and winning all on the road, which New Orleans will need to do also to defend their championship. I can not see in my heart of hearts a 7-9 team winning, maybe a cover.
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both sides make good points! I had the Eagles -14 versus the Vikes on MNF. Yikes!!!!! It is the NFL, anything can happen, true. Blowouts too! The Steelers wild card win at Cincy was in part due to the injury to Carson Palmer and led to the Steelers SB win as wildcard and winning all on the road, which New Orleans will need to do also to defend their championship. I can not see in my heart of hearts a 7-9 team winning, maybe a cover.
I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm not saying the Saints can't impose their will and demolish Seattle. On paper, they absolutely should. I'm just saying there's a chance - as there's always a chance- that the Seattle Seahawks shock the World Champion New Orleans Saints at home on Saturday.
And you're also not giving us any tangible reasons to believe it can.
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Quote Originally Posted by gpngc:
I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm not saying the Saints can't impose their will and demolish Seattle. On paper, they absolutely should. I'm just saying there's a chance - as there's always a chance- that the Seattle Seahawks shock the World Champion New Orleans Saints at home on Saturday.
And you're also not giving us any tangible reasons to believe it can.
Except the fact that they lost by 15 ON THE ROAD to the same team earlier this year in a game in which they...
-Kicked four FGs -Lost two fumbles -Moved the ball with ease the entire game -Were not rewarded an onside kick that they clearly recovered -Were called for 9 penalties compared to 3 on the opposition, many of the 9 being questionable calls
And the fact that the last two times the Saints went out West they lost SU to the freaking Cardinals and beat the lowly Niners by 3.
What the fuck are you talking about??? None of this matters dude. So they lost when they went out west, so fucking what? that's the dumbest fucking analogy i've seen.
How about this analogy since we're seeing how far up our assess we can go to get details:
-Seattle got blown out at home by a dome team- Atlanta. Therefore, they will get blown out by a dome team New Orleans.
-Or this one- Seattle has lost to 2 out of 3 teams from the NFC South, therefore they have a 66% chance of losing to NO at hom.
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Quote Originally Posted by gpngc:
Except the fact that they lost by 15 ON THE ROAD to the same team earlier this year in a game in which they...
-Kicked four FGs -Lost two fumbles -Moved the ball with ease the entire game -Were not rewarded an onside kick that they clearly recovered -Were called for 9 penalties compared to 3 on the opposition, many of the 9 being questionable calls
And the fact that the last two times the Saints went out West they lost SU to the freaking Cardinals and beat the lowly Niners by 3.
What the fuck are you talking about??? None of this matters dude. So they lost when they went out west, so fucking what? that's the dumbest fucking analogy i've seen.
How about this analogy since we're seeing how far up our assess we can go to get details:
-Seattle got blown out at home by a dome team- Atlanta. Therefore, they will get blown out by a dome team New Orleans.
-Or this one- Seattle has lost to 2 out of 3 teams from the NFC South, therefore they have a 66% chance of losing to NO at hom.
That was the thread title in another NFL forum. Here's what I responded with:
Why the Seahawks have a chance to defeat the Saints on Saturday:
#1 - It's NFL football. Anything can happen. All the bounces can go one way. All the huge penalties can be called on one team. God can make Steve Johnson drop a pass. A forcefield along the sidelines can keep a James Jones fumble in bounds. Tony Romo can drop a simple hold. Anthony Wright can play like Joe Montana for a half. The officials can choose to give one team four timeouts. Special teams can swing one way. Someone can play out of his mind. Someone can play the worst game of his career. Important players can get injured.
The Saints may be clearly a better football team right now on paper but ALL THAT MATTERS IS HOW WELL YOU PLAY ON THAT DAY.
#2 - The Seahawks are home and boast one of the best homefield advantages in all of football (if not the best). Electric Energy. The Saints also have to prepare for two QBs and travel across the country on a short week.
#3 - The Saints are a good team. But they are not unbeatable. In fact, they don't appear to be close to the team that won it all last year. Drew Brees is still Drew Brees, but he's turning the ball over more than ever for some reason. This very Seahawks defense forced two interceptions on Brees in Week 11. They're also banged up. Malcom Jenkins, Colston, Ivory, Thomas, are all dealing with injuries. And they somehowlost to the Browns and Cardinals this season. I know those were different games on different days and really mean nothing in terms of Saturday but the point is they've reached that floor twice, so it's at least POSSIBLE to happen again.
#4 - The first meeting in New Orleans. While it is true that the Seahawks defense simply could not stop Drew Brees on that particular day, they did keep the game competitive, and had a few things gone just little differently, the outcome may have been different. Consider:
-It is very difficult to beat a team twice in the NFL. It is EXTREMELY difficult to beat a team by 10+ points twice in the NFL.
-After both teams first possessions went 3-and-out, the Hawks put together a 9 play 80-yard drive and were stuffed at the Saints 1-yard line. Olindo Mare kicked a 20-yard FG. Punching that in may have changed things.
-The Seahawks actually moved the ball well all game. In fact, Mare kicked FOUR field goals. If two of those drives go for 7 instead of 3, things are different.
Here are some stats to highlight how the Hawks offense performed in their individual matchups against the Saints personnel..
Hasselbeck: 32 for 44, 366 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 turnovers. OL pass blocking: 0 sacks given up. BMW: 6 catches for 100 yards on 7 targets. Lynch: 5.1 ypc on 7 carries, 2 lost fumbles.
In other words, a prediction of Seattle scoring just 7 points isn't very logical because if you look at the last meeting it's clear that they obviously aren't overmatched by the Saints D.
-Their only touchdown (a two-yard pass to Ben Obomanu) cut the lead to 21-13 and was immediately responded by Brees and Colston on a beautiful play. To cut it one score and then have that TD erased IMMEDIATELY is a huge blow mentally and momentum-wise.
-Marshawn Lynch lost TWO fumbles in that game. Those are the types of mistakes that an underdog can't make. After also losing a costly fumble last week, it's logical to assume that with emphasis on ball security, these turnovers may not occur in the next meeting at Qwest.
Of course, if the Seahawks don't play better on defense (in the secondary, rushing the passer), the Saints are going to score at will again. But why can't they play better on this particular day? Especially at home?
#5 - Special Teams. Jon Ryan is one of the best punters in the league. Olindo Mare is very good. Leon Washington can take it back anytime he touches it. Garrett Hartley can miss big kicks, Reggie Bush can fumble, and Pierre Thomas/whoever else is returning kicks isn't much of a threat for a great return. The Saints are better on O and D but ST is 1/3 of the game and the Hawks have a clear advantage there.
#6 - Based on the Saints road games this season, the Seahawks will most likely be able to keep it close. Close game at home in the NFL playoffs = they've got a shot to win it.
Look at New Orleans on the road this year:
-Defeated Alex Smith and the 49ers by 3.
-LOST 30-20 to Max Hall and the Arizona Cardinals in the only other game this year they went out west anywhere near Seattle.
-Destroyed Tampa Bay. Got off to a fast start and the Bucs played probably their worst game of the year.
-Destroyed Carolina. OK who cares.
-Defeated Jon Kitna and the Cowboys by 3 on Thanksgiving (helped by Garrett's ridiculous FG decisions).
-Defeated the 4-12 Bengals by 4.
-Lost in Baltimore.
-Defeated the Falcons by 3.
Vegas has the road team favored by 10+ here, but if you look at how they've actually performed away from NO, how can you back them to win in a blowout? Then if it's close in the 4th Q, the home team can definitely win it.
I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm not saying the Saints can't impose their will and demolish Seattle. On paper, they absolutely should. I'm just saying there's a chance - as there's always a chance- that the Seattle Seahawks shock the World Champion New Orleans Saints at home on Saturday.
The "electric energy" of home field you refer to: They lost 3 games by more than 2 touchdowns at home. Did not beat a SINGLE playoff team this year.
I hate stupid posts like this. Goddam- this team 'boasts" homefield advantage? So what they lost to any team that was any good at home by multiple scores.
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Quote Originally Posted by gpngc:
That was the thread title in another NFL forum. Here's what I responded with:
Why the Seahawks have a chance to defeat the Saints on Saturday:
#1 - It's NFL football. Anything can happen. All the bounces can go one way. All the huge penalties can be called on one team. God can make Steve Johnson drop a pass. A forcefield along the sidelines can keep a James Jones fumble in bounds. Tony Romo can drop a simple hold. Anthony Wright can play like Joe Montana for a half. The officials can choose to give one team four timeouts. Special teams can swing one way. Someone can play out of his mind. Someone can play the worst game of his career. Important players can get injured.
The Saints may be clearly a better football team right now on paper but ALL THAT MATTERS IS HOW WELL YOU PLAY ON THAT DAY.
#2 - The Seahawks are home and boast one of the best homefield advantages in all of football (if not the best). Electric Energy. The Saints also have to prepare for two QBs and travel across the country on a short week.
#3 - The Saints are a good team. But they are not unbeatable. In fact, they don't appear to be close to the team that won it all last year. Drew Brees is still Drew Brees, but he's turning the ball over more than ever for some reason. This very Seahawks defense forced two interceptions on Brees in Week 11. They're also banged up. Malcom Jenkins, Colston, Ivory, Thomas, are all dealing with injuries. And they somehowlost to the Browns and Cardinals this season. I know those were different games on different days and really mean nothing in terms of Saturday but the point is they've reached that floor twice, so it's at least POSSIBLE to happen again.
#4 - The first meeting in New Orleans. While it is true that the Seahawks defense simply could not stop Drew Brees on that particular day, they did keep the game competitive, and had a few things gone just little differently, the outcome may have been different. Consider:
-It is very difficult to beat a team twice in the NFL. It is EXTREMELY difficult to beat a team by 10+ points twice in the NFL.
-After both teams first possessions went 3-and-out, the Hawks put together a 9 play 80-yard drive and were stuffed at the Saints 1-yard line. Olindo Mare kicked a 20-yard FG. Punching that in may have changed things.
-The Seahawks actually moved the ball well all game. In fact, Mare kicked FOUR field goals. If two of those drives go for 7 instead of 3, things are different.
Here are some stats to highlight how the Hawks offense performed in their individual matchups against the Saints personnel..
Hasselbeck: 32 for 44, 366 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 turnovers. OL pass blocking: 0 sacks given up. BMW: 6 catches for 100 yards on 7 targets. Lynch: 5.1 ypc on 7 carries, 2 lost fumbles.
In other words, a prediction of Seattle scoring just 7 points isn't very logical because if you look at the last meeting it's clear that they obviously aren't overmatched by the Saints D.
-Their only touchdown (a two-yard pass to Ben Obomanu) cut the lead to 21-13 and was immediately responded by Brees and Colston on a beautiful play. To cut it one score and then have that TD erased IMMEDIATELY is a huge blow mentally and momentum-wise.
-Marshawn Lynch lost TWO fumbles in that game. Those are the types of mistakes that an underdog can't make. After also losing a costly fumble last week, it's logical to assume that with emphasis on ball security, these turnovers may not occur in the next meeting at Qwest.
Of course, if the Seahawks don't play better on defense (in the secondary, rushing the passer), the Saints are going to score at will again. But why can't they play better on this particular day? Especially at home?
#5 - Special Teams. Jon Ryan is one of the best punters in the league. Olindo Mare is very good. Leon Washington can take it back anytime he touches it. Garrett Hartley can miss big kicks, Reggie Bush can fumble, and Pierre Thomas/whoever else is returning kicks isn't much of a threat for a great return. The Saints are better on O and D but ST is 1/3 of the game and the Hawks have a clear advantage there.
#6 - Based on the Saints road games this season, the Seahawks will most likely be able to keep it close. Close game at home in the NFL playoffs = they've got a shot to win it.
Look at New Orleans on the road this year:
-Defeated Alex Smith and the 49ers by 3.
-LOST 30-20 to Max Hall and the Arizona Cardinals in the only other game this year they went out west anywhere near Seattle.
-Destroyed Tampa Bay. Got off to a fast start and the Bucs played probably their worst game of the year.
-Destroyed Carolina. OK who cares.
-Defeated Jon Kitna and the Cowboys by 3 on Thanksgiving (helped by Garrett's ridiculous FG decisions).
-Defeated the 4-12 Bengals by 4.
-Lost in Baltimore.
-Defeated the Falcons by 3.
Vegas has the road team favored by 10+ here, but if you look at how they've actually performed away from NO, how can you back them to win in a blowout? Then if it's close in the 4th Q, the home team can definitely win it.
I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm not saying the Saints can't impose their will and demolish Seattle. On paper, they absolutely should. I'm just saying there's a chance - as there's always a chance- that the Seattle Seahawks shock the World Champion New Orleans Saints at home on Saturday.
The "electric energy" of home field you refer to: They lost 3 games by more than 2 touchdowns at home. Did not beat a SINGLE playoff team this year.
I hate stupid posts like this. Goddam- this team 'boasts" homefield advantage? So what they lost to any team that was any good at home by multiple scores.
I am not betting this game even thought I am a Saint's fan. Saints have Reggie Bush, Julius Jones and George somebody that they got off the Philadelphia practice squad as the running backs. Brees has been known to throw 2-3 picks in the games where the Saints can't run well. I think the Saints will win and MIGHT not have INTs and win big but without my money. I hope they do and good luck to those that lay the 10.5 points.
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I am not betting this game even thought I am a Saint's fan. Saints have Reggie Bush, Julius Jones and George somebody that they got off the Philadelphia practice squad as the running backs. Brees has been known to throw 2-3 picks in the games where the Saints can't run well. I think the Saints will win and MIGHT not have INTs and win big but without my money. I hope they do and good luck to those that lay the 10.5 points.
#6 - Based on the Saints road games this season, the Seahawks will most likely be able to keep it close.
Look at New Orleans on the road this year:
-Defeated Alex Smith and the 49ers by 3.
-LOST 30-20 to Max Hall and the Arizona Cardinals in the only other game this year they went out west anywhere near Seattle.
-Destroyed Tampa Bay. Got off to a fast start and the Bucs played probably their worst game of the year.
-Destroyed Carolina. OK who cares.
-Defeated Jon Kitna and the Cowboys by 3 on Thanksgiving (helped by Garrett's ridiculous FG decisions).
-Defeated the 4-12 Bengals by 4.
-Lost in Baltimore.
-Defeated the Falcons by 3.
Vegas has the road team favored by 10+ here, but if you look at how they've actually performed away from NO, how can you back them to win in a blowout?
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
They had a lot of close road games, which tells me one thing - that they didn't get to play the Seahawks on the road!
Mr Bator giving us handicapping 101, I like it! Although this point actually seems like a very strong point. The Saints haven't played well enough to blow bad teams out on the road. I'd like to hear a counter-point to this one. Ok, they havent played the Hawks on the road, so what! That has nothing to do with them playing shitty against shitty teams on the road. Sure seems important if I was betting this game (which im not)
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#6 - Based on the Saints road games this season, the Seahawks will most likely be able to keep it close.
Look at New Orleans on the road this year:
-Defeated Alex Smith and the 49ers by 3.
-LOST 30-20 to Max Hall and the Arizona Cardinals in the only other game this year they went out west anywhere near Seattle.
-Destroyed Tampa Bay. Got off to a fast start and the Bucs played probably their worst game of the year.
-Destroyed Carolina. OK who cares.
-Defeated Jon Kitna and the Cowboys by 3 on Thanksgiving (helped by Garrett's ridiculous FG decisions).
-Defeated the 4-12 Bengals by 4.
-Lost in Baltimore.
-Defeated the Falcons by 3.
Vegas has the road team favored by 10+ here, but if you look at how they've actually performed away from NO, how can you back them to win in a blowout?
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
They had a lot of close road games, which tells me one thing - that they didn't get to play the Seahawks on the road!
Mr Bator giving us handicapping 101, I like it! Although this point actually seems like a very strong point. The Saints haven't played well enough to blow bad teams out on the road. I'd like to hear a counter-point to this one. Ok, they havent played the Hawks on the road, so what! That has nothing to do with them playing shitty against shitty teams on the road. Sure seems important if I was betting this game (which im not)
Mr. Bator---I have always greatly respected your opinion and appreciate the comments you have made above. I now will re-think the game as I may have tunnel vision thinking the 101/2 with the hawks.
But--one question---I would not think knowing your past--that you would advocate laying the 10 1/2??
your response is appreciated---as I am now in a thought process to pass the game.
thanks
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Tell me about it!
Mr. Bator---I have always greatly respected your opinion and appreciate the comments you have made above. I now will re-think the game as I may have tunnel vision thinking the 101/2 with the hawks.
But--one question---I would not think knowing your past--that you would advocate laying the 10 1/2??
your response is appreciated---as I am now in a thought process to pass the game.
That's a lazy assumption on your part, as well as an incorrect one. I'll prove it.
Last year, the Cowboys shutout the Eagles on the last day of the regular season, 24-0. Six days later, they hosted them again at Cowboys Stadium and won, 34-14.
Two years ago, the Ravens beat the Dolphins in Miami, 27-13. They met again in Miami in the wildcard round and the Ravens pounded them again, 27-9.
In 2005, the Steelers beat the Bengals in Cincinnati, 27-13. The Steelers returned to Cincinnati in the wild card round and beat them again, 31-17.
In 2004, the Eagles beat the Vikings in Philadelphia, 27-16. They hosted them again in the playoffs and beat them by nearly the same score, 27-14.
Also in 2004, the Falcons blew out the Rams in the Georgis Dome, 34-17. The Rams came back to the Georgia Dome for the divisional round of the playoffs and got drubbed even worse, 47-17.
I think you get the picture. It's not uncommon for one team to deliver a pair of double-digit beatings in the same season to another team, one in the regular season and the other in the postseason.
This is why I love this site so much and why Mr Bator is truly the best. He always has the "correct" information ALWAYS at his fingetips(which is amazing) to blow holes in ALL the mis-information out there. Going un-checked the masses will read and follow. I don't always follow what he plays, but I certanily WILL NEVER GO the other way!!!
But in this case I was liking the SAINTS and now I LOVE ME SOME SAINTS!!
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
That's a lazy assumption on your part, as well as an incorrect one. I'll prove it.
Last year, the Cowboys shutout the Eagles on the last day of the regular season, 24-0. Six days later, they hosted them again at Cowboys Stadium and won, 34-14.
Two years ago, the Ravens beat the Dolphins in Miami, 27-13. They met again in Miami in the wildcard round and the Ravens pounded them again, 27-9.
In 2005, the Steelers beat the Bengals in Cincinnati, 27-13. The Steelers returned to Cincinnati in the wild card round and beat them again, 31-17.
In 2004, the Eagles beat the Vikings in Philadelphia, 27-16. They hosted them again in the playoffs and beat them by nearly the same score, 27-14.
Also in 2004, the Falcons blew out the Rams in the Georgis Dome, 34-17. The Rams came back to the Georgia Dome for the divisional round of the playoffs and got drubbed even worse, 47-17.
I think you get the picture. It's not uncommon for one team to deliver a pair of double-digit beatings in the same season to another team, one in the regular season and the other in the postseason.
This is why I love this site so much and why Mr Bator is truly the best. He always has the "correct" information ALWAYS at his fingetips(which is amazing) to blow holes in ALL the mis-information out there. Going un-checked the masses will read and follow. I don't always follow what he plays, but I certanily WILL NEVER GO the other way!!!
But in this case I was liking the SAINTS and now I LOVE ME SOME SAINTS!!
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