Quote Originally Posted by gpngc:
That was the thread title in another NFL forum. Here's what I responded with:
Why the Seahawks have a chance to defeat the Saints on Saturday:
#1 - It's NFL football. Anything can happen. All the bounces can go one way. All the huge penalties can be called on one team. God can make Steve Johnson drop a pass. A forcefield along the sidelines can keep a James Jones fumble in bounds. Tony Romo can drop a simple hold. Anthony Wright can play like Joe Montana for a half. The officials can choose to give one team four timeouts. Special teams can swing one way. Someone can play out of his mind. Someone can play the worst game of his career. Important players can get injured.
The Saints may be clearly a better football team right now on paper but ALL THAT MATTERS IS HOW WELL YOU PLAY ON THAT DAY.
#2 - The Seahawks are home and boast one of the best homefield advantages in all of football (if not the best). Electric Energy. The Saints also have to prepare for two QBs and travel across the country on a short week.
#3 - The Saints are a good team. But they are not unbeatable. In fact, they don't appear to be close to the team that won it all last year. Drew Brees is still Drew Brees, but he's turning the ball over more than ever for some reason. This very Seahawks defense forced two interceptions on Brees in Week 11. They're also banged up. Malcom Jenkins, Colston, Ivory, Thomas, are all dealing with injuries. And they somehowlost to the Browns and Cardinals this season. I know those were different games on different days and really mean nothing in terms of Saturday but the point is they've reached that floor twice, so it's at least POSSIBLE to happen again.
#4 - The first meeting in New Orleans. While it is true that the Seahawks defense simply could not stop Drew Brees on that particular day, they did keep the game competitive, and had a few things gone just little differently, the outcome may have been different. Consider:
-It is very difficult to beat a team twice in the NFL. It is EXTREMELY difficult to beat a team by 10+ points twice in the NFL.
-After both teams first possessions went 3-and-out, the Hawks put together a 9 play 80-yard drive and were stuffed at the Saints 1-yard line. Olindo Mare kicked a 20-yard FG. Punching that in may have changed things.
-The Seahawks actually moved the ball well all game. In fact, Mare kicked FOUR field goals. If two of those drives go for 7 instead of 3, things are different.
Here are some stats to highlight how the Hawks offense performed in their individual matchups against the Saints personnel..
Hasselbeck: 32 for 44, 366 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 turnovers.
OL pass blocking: 0 sacks given up.
BMW: 6 catches for 100 yards on 7 targets.
Lynch: 5.1 ypc on 7 carries, 2 lost fumbles.
In other words, a prediction of Seattle scoring just 7 points isn't very logical because if you look at the last meeting it's clear that they obviously aren't overmatched by the Saints D.
-Their only touchdown (a two-yard pass to Ben Obomanu) cut the lead to 21-13 and was immediately responded by Brees and Colston on a beautiful play. To cut it one score and then have that TD erased IMMEDIATELY is a huge blow mentally and momentum-wise.
-Marshawn Lynch lost TWO fumbles in that game. Those are the types of mistakes that an underdog can't make. After also losing a costly fumble last week, it's logical to assume that with emphasis on ball security, these turnovers may not occur in the next meeting at Qwest.
Of course, if the Seahawks don't play better on defense (in the secondary, rushing the passer), the Saints are going to score at will again. But why can't they play better on this particular day? Especially at home?
#5 - Special Teams. Jon Ryan is one of the best punters in the league. Olindo Mare is very good. Leon Washington can take it back anytime he touches it. Garrett Hartley can miss big kicks, Reggie Bush can fumble, and Pierre Thomas/whoever else is returning kicks isn't much of a threat for a great return. The Saints are better on O and D but ST is 1/3 of the game and the Hawks have a clear advantage there.
#6 - Based on the Saints road games this season, the Seahawks will most likely be able to keep it close. Close game at home in the NFL playoffs = they've got a shot to win it.
Look at New Orleans on the road this year:
-Defeated Alex Smith and the 49ers by 3.
-LOST 30-20 to Max Hall and the Arizona Cardinals in the only other game this year they went out west anywhere near Seattle.
-Destroyed Tampa Bay. Got off to a fast start and the Bucs played probably their worst game of the year.
-Destroyed Carolina. OK who cares.
-Defeated Jon Kitna and the Cowboys by 3 on Thanksgiving (helped by Garrett's ridiculous FG decisions).
-Defeated the 4-12 Bengals by 4.
-Lost in Baltimore.
-Defeated the Falcons by 3.
Vegas has the road team favored by 10+ here, but if you look at how they've actually performed away from NO, how can you back them to win in a blowout? Then if it's close in the 4th Q, the home team can definitely win it.
I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm not saying the Saints can't impose their will and demolish Seattle. On paper, they absolutely should. I'm just saying there's a chance - as there's always a chance- that the Seattle Seahawks shock the World Champion New Orleans Saints at home on Saturday.
Very well put!! and Iwould like to add
-You don't suppose the hawks will be sick and tired of hearing by game day the following.
1-they don't belong!
2-no 7-9 team should be in the playoffs when 10-6 teams were left out. revamp the system-
3-They are a bd team in a bad division.
4- they have no quality wins this year
5-they are a 10 1/2 point home underdog--trust me they know the spread
6-they don't have a chance and will get blown out
I think they will have the mond set of smash them in the mouth from start to finish. 60 minutes of smash mouth football.
ps-you think sharps will be laying 10 1/2 --not a chance!!!---think sharps will pounce on hawks on game day---take 10 1/2 now
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