Rams …
are easy to select because previous away playoff favorites have ATS power.
then add back to back Away playoff favorites
next strength is both those games failed to cover
finally, now they are a dog. Finally catching a number that’s more attainable, albeit they are facing a more opposing opponent.
Doesn’t matter I’m riding the Rams.
Denver +
Bo Nix only had 25 regular season TD passes so in my opinion I’m not over reacting to the situation. There are WB issues besides scoring TD’s. INTs incompletions. Difficulty sustaining drives and making key passing first downs.
So that part depends and game plan and over coming that adversity.
The good news is the Broncos are home they still have a elite D (I have not checked the injury’s, yet)
the Broncos vis the last 2 seasons still win more home games even when scoring less than 20 points.
here is one data query that has only 12 plays but within is 2-10 ATS
F and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=1 and ats streak>0 and p:margin<15 and opS(playoffs)<3 and total>41 and p:points<37 and C
This favorite was a previous playoff favorite and won their last game by 14 points or less yet covered the previous spread, failed to score 37 points previously, didn’t play on 3 playoff games the previous season, and this is a conference game.
2-10 ats and a fade of the Patriots ATS, not moneyline.
Rams advance +132
Broncos can be had in game because I believe there is less probability of them winning out right. I’ll stab a little pregame +5 in hopes I get a better line opportunity.
one way I won’t get a better Broncos line is if they execute early and get a lead and maintain it all game. Possible but I don’t envision that being highly probable.
@ULLafayettekid
Look I agree on the qb situation is sketchy but Tim Tebow won a playoff game for Denver. Not many examples I can prove no point in this case but the Den D and coaching are elite. Is that enough? Probably not enough to win, but hang around is possible.
What most people don’t appreciate is something that i evaluate strongly is past line valuations.
Pats had a relatively easy schedule coming from the bottom so their lines were not too complex.
2025 Patriots road favorite games
@Saints -3.5 who is the Saints QB ? How good is/was the Saints D ?
@Titans -6.5 same thing here the Titans gave basically nothing and it’s the same line.
@ Cincy -7.5 with Flacco Cincy’s starter
Jets -13.5 late week game with Brady Sonething as a starting QB
same or very similar lines and yet Denver is by far the most well rounded AFC team as the 1 seed.
Who knows how this plays out but on paper the line is similar to some real crap teams the Patriots played this season. I like this.
Denver can toss the game away sure but I am betting the game plan and coaching and big defense. An find away to stay close.
it’s an unknown gamble but as I see it worth the risk.
Go look back at Bo Nix stats vs playoff teams. His game management and limiting errors is impressive. I think it was 7 games vs playoff teams and none of those playoff teams are currently playing
11 tds and 2 ints.
The lack of big time production is not enough to make the Broncos a home dog of +5
2.5 or moneyline maybe both some sort if diversity if you like.
Since and including 2022 the Rams are 8-10-1 ATS and 3-17 SU as a road dog. Not great numbers but within the same time frame the Rams are 40-31-1 ATS.
More recently the Rams are 18-8 ATS and the last 2 ATS failures make them a dog against a great regular season team.
take the points if you like but I liked the Rams all season to make the SB.
The Broncos? I like more and more. I gaining momentum that they also win.
A number 1 seed most often makes the final and the way Denver is set up they have an outstanding chance to advance but capture the trophy.
Rams Broncos final.
No Patriots Rams rematch
no Patriots Seahawks rematch
No Broncos Seahawks rematch.
The favorites won all 4 NFL games last week. The favorites won the last 3 NCAA games in the bracket. Not a sight of an underdog In football recently. That will reverse and at least one of these dogs will get the win if not both as I predict.
Established in 1995,
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