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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Rookie Quarterbacks Making First NFL Start

    BigNiner
    Raiders22
    Capppro69
    Raider4life22
    Biscuiteater1
    ...
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    Views: 465
    Posts: 17
     
    BigNiner
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 10:28 AM ET #1

    Does anyone have recent numbers of rookie quarterbacks ATS making their first NFL start? 

    it’s happening 3 times this weekend and I can’t find accurate numbers over the last 5-10 years.

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Does anyone have recent numbers of rookie quarterbacks ATS making their first NFL start? 

    it’s happening 3 times this weekend and I can’t find accurate numbers over the last 5-10 years.

     
    BigNiner
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 10:56 AM ET #2

    Since 2000, 22 rookie quarterbacks made their first start in weeks 10-13 and completed just 53.8% of their passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, and threw interceptions on 5.3% of dropbacks—metrics that translate to a passer rating in the mid-50s to low-60s.

    Reply

    Since 2000, 22 rookie quarterbacks made their first start in weeks 10-13 and completed just 53.8% of their passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, and threw interceptions on 5.3% of dropbacks—metrics that translate to a passer rating in the mid-50s to low-60s.

     
    Raiders22
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 11:09 AM ET #3

    @BigNiner

     I think UNDER is the number that does best. 30-13

    I think there is a distinct difference whether it is in the first 3-4 games of the season and whether it is simply their first start later in the year.

    First 3-4 weeks 13-21-1 ATS

    Rookie QBs in their first 4 starts even out to 115-115.

    https://vsin.com/nfl/rookie-nfl-quarterback-betting-trends-and-systems/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

    Maybe that link provides some help

    peace_5

    Reply

    @BigNiner

     I think UNDER is the number that does best. 30-13

    I think there is a distinct difference whether it is in the first 3-4 games of the season and whether it is simply their first start later in the year.

    First 3-4 weeks 13-21-1 ATS

    Rookie QBs in their first 4 starts even out to 115-115.

    https://vsin.com/nfl/rookie-nfl-quarterback-betting-trends-and-systems/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

    Maybe that link provides some help

    peace_5

     
    BigNiner
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 11:13 AM ET #4

    @Raiders22

     

     Thanks, Raiders peace_5

    I used weeks 10-13 for that reason because later weeks can be essentially garbage time depending on who is really trying and conversely the first month they tend to perform poorly. I appreciate the info.

    Reply

    @Raiders22

     

     Thanks, Raiders peace_5

    I used weeks 10-13 for that reason because later weeks can be essentially garbage time depending on who is really trying and conversely the first month they tend to perform poorly. I appreciate the info.

     
    Raiders22
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 11:20 AM ET #5

    @BigNiner

     Cool   Post anything decent if you come across it.

    peace_5

    Reply

    @BigNiner

     Cool   Post anything decent if you come across it.

    peace_5

     
    Capppro69
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 12:23 PM ET #6

    an_popcorn

    "When you love what you do, you'll never work a day in your life"
    Reply

    an_popcorn

     
    Raider4life22
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 1:56 PM ET #7

    I didn't realize there was 3 lol. Obviously I was focused on Fernando. So the cards are done with minshew mania after 1 week lol.  Also kinda shocked the Dolphins are giving up on Willis already after a half a season and paying him all that money. 

    Reply

    I didn't realize there was 3 lol. Obviously I was focused on Fernando. So the cards are done with minshew mania after 1 week lol.  Also kinda shocked the Dolphins are giving up on Willis already after a half a season and paying him all that money. 

     
    Biscuiteater1
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 2:01 PM ET #8

    @Raider4life22

     The legend of Cashew has been salted and preserved.  

    Reply

    @Raider4life22

     The legend of Cashew has been salted and preserved.  

     
    BigNiner
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 2:13 PM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by Raider4life22:

    I didn't realize there was 3 lol. Obviously I was focused on Fernando. So the cards are done with minshew mania after 1 week lol.  Also kinda shocked the Dolphins are giving up on Willis already after a half a season and paying him all that money.

    Minshew and Willis are both on IR

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Raider4life22:

    I didn't realize there was 3 lol. Obviously I was focused on Fernando. So the cards are done with minshew mania after 1 week lol.  Also kinda shocked the Dolphins are giving up on Willis already after a half a season and paying him all that money.

    Minshew and Willis are both on IR

     
    Way2Good
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 2:24 PM ET #10

    Carson Beck is also starting.

    Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
    Reply

    Carson Beck is also starting.

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 6:14 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

    @Raider4life22  The legend of Cashew has been salted and preserved.

    an_roll_laugh

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

    @Raider4life22  The legend of Cashew has been salted and preserved.

    an_roll_laugh

     
    Biscuiteater1
    Biscuiteater1
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 6:46 PM ET #12

    No doubt it doesn't get much more treacherous than Seattle @ home for your 1st start and he may get cooked. But the dude went 16-0, 6 -0 against ranked teams..

    273 - 379  70%  3,535 yds 

    41 td's  6 int's

    90 rushes  276  &  7  td's

    I'm gonna take a chance on young Fern & 6'

    Reply

    No doubt it doesn't get much more treacherous than Seattle @ home for your 1st start and he may get cooked. But the dude went 16-0, 6 -0 against ranked teams..

    273 - 379  70%  3,535 yds 

    41 td's  6 int's

    90 rushes  276  &  7  td's

    I'm gonna take a chance on young Fern & 6'

     
    theclaw
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 6:55 PM ET #13

    I saw online supposedly sharps are lining up to back the Seahawks.

    Reply

    I saw online supposedly sharps are lining up to back the Seahawks.

     
    theclaw
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2026 - 6:58 PM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

    Since 2000, 22 rookie quarterbacks made their first start in weeks 10-13 and completed just 53.8% of their passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, and threw interceptions on 5.3% of dropbacks—metrics that translate to a passer rating in the mid-50s to low-60s.

     

    Wow, INT's on 5.3% of passes, that is crazy. Over 3% is pretty high but over 5% is ridiculously high.

    Good stuff 9er.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

    Since 2000, 22 rookie quarterbacks made their first start in weeks 10-13 and completed just 53.8% of their passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, and threw interceptions on 5.3% of dropbacks—metrics that translate to a passer rating in the mid-50s to low-60s.

     

    Wow, INT's on 5.3% of passes, that is crazy. Over 3% is pretty high but over 5% is ridiculously high.

    Good stuff 9er.

     
    puds
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    Posted: Nov. 14, 2026 - 3:39 AM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    I saw online supposedly sharps are lining up to back the Seahawks.

    road favorites heading into their bye against non conference opponent hitting at nearly 70% last 20ish years 

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    I saw online supposedly sharps are lining up to back the Seahawks.

    road favorites heading into their bye against non conference opponent hitting at nearly 70% last 20ish years 

     
    Fuse
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    Posted: Nov. 14, 2026 - 8:36 AM ET #16

    surprisedpeaceclover

    Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
    Reply

    surprisedpeaceclover

     
     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Nov. 14, 2026 - 9:01 AM ET #17

    goodthread

    Reply

    goodthread

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