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reverse line movements...

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Posted: #101

TriniMike,

  According to your system, the NBA plays as of right now should be:

1. LA Lakers (77% on OKC but line dropped from 7.5 to -5)

2. Detroit (68% on Mil line dropped from 6 to 5)

3. Chicago (69% on NY line dropped from 5.5 to -4.

4. Utah (68% on ATL line dropped from 5 to -4.5)

 
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Posted: #102
 *DISCLAIMER* Part of betting RLM is not looking at the strength of the team, who's in and who's out etc. Theoretically Vegas should figure all of that out and that's represented in the line...

BUT, you can't tell me something's not wrong when the Lakers are missing 3 big men and have sucked all year and the line against the best team in the NBA is only +5.5!? If you ask me I think it should +8 or +9! I think I'm jumping on the Lakers tonight, against my dislike for Kobe... I'll post my plays later tonight, but don't be surprised if I get a little risky and take Lakers ML!
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by mjcille:

TriniMike,

  According to your system, the NBA plays as of right now should be:

1. LA Lakers (77% on OKC but line dropped from 7.5 to -5)

2. Detroit (68% on Mil line dropped from 6 to 5)

3. Chicago (69% on NY line dropped from 5.5 to -4.

4. Utah (68% on ATL line dropped from 5 to -4.5)


Haven't checked to see if your #'s are correct, but assuming they are, they all fit the bill. That doesn't mean I would play them all, but they all qualify. Look at my last post. A lot of guys brought this game to my attention and I like what I see so far. Picks to follow later today... Best of luck, thanks for checking in!
 
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Posted: #104


Lakers 1 unit

Portland Trail blazers 1 Unit


Here are PLAYS that fit the system but are NOT my picks. I MIGHT touch them for half a unit before game time. Do the same if you see something you like.

Toronto Raptors 

Cavs under




I repeat to avoid confusion, that I only have 3 picks for tonight. Lakers and Bulls are my favorites. Might parlay them.

Follow, fade or ignore. It's all good... Best of luck all  
 
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Posted: #105
Why are u on the blazers? The movement seems right 60% on gs so a move from 6 to 8 is justified no?
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by exile1025:

Why are u on the blazers? The movement seems right 60% on gs so a move from 6 to 8 is justified no?

At the moment, you're absolutely right. But I've been watching it all day, earlier today 70% were on Portland, then I saw it at 50 something and It continued moving down. The averages have caught up to to them, but to ME it looks like a lot of money were on them early. Sometimes big money comes in right before game time, sometimes they buy the number they like when they see it. I could be wrong, I mean really, who knows who bets what, when. it's a guessing game and I just try to make the best educated guess I can.

 That's also why i noted the cavs under and Raptors. you guys can keep and eye on it for yourselves and see if money comes in right before the game, without having to fall back on my advice. Those were just a heads up. Seems like a lot to take in...Am I making sense?
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:



Lakers 1 unit

Portland Trail blazers 1 Unit


Here are PLAYS that fit the system but are NOT my picks. I MIGHT touch them for half a unit before game time. Do the same if you see something you like.

Toronto Raptors 

Cavs under




I repeat to avoid confusion, that I only have 3 picks for tonight. Lakers and Bulls are my favorites. Might parlay them.

Follow, fade or ignore. It's all good... Best of luck all  

 

BOL Trini

 
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Posted: #108
Thanks, I think I understand, so the lines were at 8 when 70% were on the Blazers earlier? and second question: even though a line has changed in the favor of the right move, does it still qualify for your system if it began fitting the system like this Blazers game? Do you understand what I'm trying to ask?
 
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Posted: #109
Sorry one more question: can u explain ur pick for the char/tor game also?
 
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Posted: #110
Very interesting... you're on to something. Wife do u get your stats from ?
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:


At the moment, you're absolutely right. But I've been watching it all day, earlier today 70% were on Portland, then I saw it at 50 something and It continued moving down. The averages have caught up to to them, but to ME it looks like a lot of money were on them early. Sometimes big money comes in right before game time, sometimes they buy the number they like when they see it. I could be wrong, I mean really, who knows who bets what, when. it's a guessing game and I just try to make the best educated guess I can.

 That's also why i noted the cavs under and Raptors. you guys can keep and eye on it for yourselves and see if money comes in right before the game, without having to fall back on my advice. Those were just a heads up. Seems like a lot to take in...Am I making sense?

According to vegasinsider, Portland was never ever remotely close to over 50%.  from what I found the highest they were was 39% at 930am this morning.
Good luck.

 
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Posted: #112
the one pick everyone seemed to agree on tonight was the bulls.. nice hit fellas  
 
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Posted: #113
evryone keeps bring up portland, you guys might be right, i must have been looking at another game. been taking tylenol w/ codeine all day for a pinched nerve. been kinda woozy. maybe i made a mistake, let's hope i get lucky...
 
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Posted: #114
if they lose, i'll take the heat for it, no worries
 
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Posted: #115

Some NBA games/Lines to watch tomorrow.

RLM via thespread.com

NBA

Bobcats open@ +11.5(23%) at Indy(77%): currently line hasnt moved.

Rockets open @ -1.5 (55%) at Philly(45%): currently Rockets -1 (scores and odds has same movement but 73% vs 27%)

Grizz open -3(66%) @Dallas (34%): current Grizz -2

 

 
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Posted: #116
You gotta like a 4-1 day. Nice work, my friend. Once I learn to tail you and stop thinking on my own, I think I'll start to win a few bucks.

Maybe you should drink a codeine colada every day!
 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:



Lakers 1 unit

Portland Trail blazers 1 Unit


Here are PLAYS that fit the system but are NOT my picks. I MIGHT touch them for half a unit before game time. Do the same if you see something you like.

Toronto Raptors 

Cavs under




I repeat to avoid confusion, that I only have 3 picks for tonight. Lakers and Bulls are my favorites. Might parlay them.

Follow, fade or ignore. It's all good... Best of luck all  
 
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Posted: #118

I've recentlly been following your thread. I love what your doing, so i posted above. I'll continue to watch throughout tomorrow. dunno if you bet NCAABB but here would be some games to watch. any thoughts welcome

I will bold the teams we would plan on taking according to RLM. Some we are still looking for another .5 pt. will continue to monitor

again this is according to thespread.com (i know all sites are different as far as %'s go)

11am Georgetown -1 (44%) at St Johns (56%) now -2(44%)

2 pm Richmond open +7 (24%) @ Lasalle (76%) - still same check later

2 pm UCLA open +3.5 (23%) at Colorado (77$) - now +3(23%)

230 pm Vtech open +9.5(38%) at GaTech (62%) - same check later

300 pm Texas arlington open -4.5 (60%) @ texas state (40%) now -4(60%)

400 pm Kansas -19 (67%) at Tex Tech (33%) - now -18(67%)

700 pm Central Mich +6.5 (60%) at Toledo(40%) now +7.5(60%)

800 pm Cincy -4(71%) at Rutgers(29%) now -3.5(71%)

200 pm NC greensboro +8.5(25%) at Western Carolina (75%) now +8(25%)

705 Samford -5.5(80%) at Citadel(20%) now -5(80%)

 

 
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Posted: #119
Bulls 
Lakers 
Portland 

2-1 on today's picks. 14-2 on all posted picks...

Today's leans, NOT included in my record...

Raptors 
Cavs under 
 
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Posted: #120
swanman    any thoughts or help are always welcome!
 
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Posted: #121
thanks Sm1975, technically not 4-1 but still not bad overall
 
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Posted: #122
Tri, im curious..what are your locked in football plays?
 
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Posted: #123
Lakers line began at +6 and went as high as +7.5 towards the end. I never saw it drop in Thunders' favor? No reverse line movement.
 
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Posted: #124
Hmmm, like the ideas you have here and very good record. 
 
 
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Posted: #125
Keep up the good work!
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