Posted:
#51
reverse line movements are between 75 an 80 % winners,my bird told me so he makes all my picks for me lol, gl
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reverse line movements...
Posted:
#54
I'm stepping way out of my comfort zone and making 3 picks today and I'm making these calls well before gametime which isn't the right thing to do. But today's my birthday so gonna be busy and I'm feeling lucky! 
I'm looking at Hornets, magic and mavs... lines haven't moved a full point yet, but I expect that they will so I'm gonna pull the trigger early and lock in the extra half point in my favor...
I don't like the fact that I'm making 3 plays because I'm setting myself up to mess up my good record, but I call it as I see it. I would have to say my strong leans are magic and mavs... just for the hell of it, I'm personally putting a lil something on mavs ml, but that's unrelated to line movement...
1 unit on Magic
1 unit Hornets
1 units mavs
.5 units mavs ml
. 5 units magic, hornets, mavs parlay ( just because I'm a degenerate and it's my b day!)
gl to all whether you choose to follow or fade!
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but those weren't my picks, those were personal bets
Posted:
#67
Quote Originally Posted by Puck_Off:
Was watching that cavs line yesterday. The line really never moved despite 95% of the $ on Atl. With such a huge % going to one side I wonder if that's just as good as a reverse line move. Thoughts (
Was watching that cavs line yesterday. The line really never moved despite 95% of the $ on Atl. With such a huge % going to one side I wonder if that's just as good as a reverse line move. Thoughts (
Not sure to be honwst, haven't paid much attention to those situations, but will def look at tgem feom now on
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Posted:
#69
Quote Originally Posted by BLOCKBOYZ:
Good job Trini! How about when the line jus stays the same but there's a 60% or higher! Say for instance the 9ers -3 and a 60% picks f
Good job Trini! How about when the line jus stays the same but there's a 60% or higher! Say for instance the 9ers -3 and a 60% picks f
60% on one side without line movement is a normal thing... I wouldn't say that qualifies for the system we're trying to use
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Posted:
#74
Quote Originally Posted by TriniMike:
absolutely... but the real big $ sharp side bets don't really come in until a few hours or even minutes before the game. but those are definately the games I have my eye on and exactly for those reasons
absolutely... but the real big $ sharp side bets don't really come in until a few hours or even minutes before the game. but those are definately the games I have my eye on and exactly for those reasons
Sorry but I disagree, true sharps have already made their bets thats part of the reason why the lined moved! The other is money of course. Problem with reverse line movement and i myself sat in your chair before is that your betting on a bad line...the value that did exist was passed on by you the better cause your waiting for a market response. Thus leaving you behind the curve and probably the difference of a favourable result! When the change does happen, best option would be to find a book that has the original number. hope this helps...Good Luck and God Bless!
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Posted:
#75
Sorry for that late post guys, I know I said it would be here by 5, so I apologize.
Tonight, I'm going with my early lean and jumping on the Trailblazers. As of right now, 82% of the bets coming in are on the Heat, but line has dropped from -4 to -3.5. I usually like to see a move of at least a point, but this is a nationally televised game on a night with only 3 games. My guess is there is probably a lot more bets coming in on this matchup than normal.
I also have a lean on Sacramento tonight, because the line is moving in a similar fashion.
Personally I'm taking Sacramento and Portland for tonight, but my pick is Portland.
1 unit Portland Trailblazers
1 unit Sacramento Kings
I now a lot of cappers make picks based on who has a better home record, who's hurt, who's better defensively etc, etc.
I play like that too! But this thread was started as an experiment, because I was winning a lot more often on my reverse line moves than my regular picks. So, I wanted to see how it would go if I kept a public log of it. For example, I'm minutes away from Madison Square Garden, born and raised, I'm not gonna let tonights Knicks game pass without touching it. BUT, I'm not going to post that pick, because it's just for some action, not based on reverse line movement.
Good luck to all: Follow, Fade or ignore...
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