REGRESSION PLAYS WEEK 1...........................2025

@spottie2935

 Please bet down the Redskins to -4. I will take 5 dimes on the skins and collect my money when the game is finished!

Well, that does make sense but sometimes things don't make any sense happen...........

I'd guess that would be the logical choice for most people.........

Yes I hear you. But Wash has so many reasons to think they will regress. And many are well aware of those reasons. It is probably justified but even then when too many jump the same side it is not a good thing I do agree with that ......... 

Thank you, best of luck to you as well ............

Thing is dog I don't really know the probabilities they regress by 4 or 5 games. I do know that at their expected wins (-4.8) these teams have regressed 4 or 5 games even more and were big surprise stories in those years.

But that doesn't  tell me the probabilities the regressi9n will be 4 or 5.

I am very confident KC will regress but how much I don't know.

Your comment does give me an idea though, I have all the past years of expected wins stapled together, I could go through them and find the probabilities. 

I think I'll do that, shouldn't take that long and that could prove to be valuable info in the future.

I just finished doing research into the conf finals of NBA playoffs while I had all my NBA stuff out for recently finished playoffs and I had things fresh in my mind.

I did post some interesting things I found in my NBA playoff thread if you want to check it out. As well as anyone else.

Which year was weakest, which was strongest.  Who played highest rated 2 teams in conf finals and finals, who played the weakest.  

Along with both PR's records from 1997 to 2025 but missing 2 years.

I Got some game changing info for next seasons playoffs 

I think this line is spot on. I love Kellen Moore but he's a first time head coach, the Saints have an aging roster and have salary cap issues. Plus, even though I wasn't a big fan of Derek Carr, he's far better than what the Saints have now. To me they look like one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, at least early on.

The Cardinals have as good a shot as any team to win the wide open NFC West. They've really upgraded their defense through free agency and the draft. Offense is status quo, and it's time for Kyler Murray to put up or shut up. He's got plenty of weapons but he's been inconsistent. If he's on, Arizona will roll New Orleans, but if he gets the fizzies an upset is certainly possible. No play for me on this one, but good luck to you Spottie!

I saw some things on you tube regarding Wash regressing.

They beat only 1 playoff team in regular season. That was Eagles but Eagles had a good lead before Hurts was injured and out, only then Wash came back to win.

They won 1 game on a hailmary.

Wash played 9 QB's that were either back-ups or benched at some point in the season.

Wash converted 20 of 23 on 4th down which set a new NFL record. Not very repeatable.

And it is info like this why so many feel Wash will regress this season.

Think about this, with all this going for them they still needed 8... 1 score close wins to get 12 wins on the season.

8  close wins likely won't  be repeated. 

Here are the 4 teams they beat by more then 1 score.......

3-14 Browns

3-14 Titans

5-12 Panthers

8-9 Cards

They beat Panthers just before mid-season which Panthers were very bad. They opened 1-7  and were 3-11 at one point before wining 2 of 3 to end season when QB finally played better.

So 3 of the worst teams in the league.

They beat Giants by 3 and by 5.

Stroud had a monster rookie year only to regress the next year which was last year. People were talking about him as a top tier QB with Mahomes and Allen.

Not  likely Jayden plays as well or gets the same breaks he did last year.

It seems very unlikely Wash won't regress.

@theclaw

That sharp analysis certainly makes WAS look overrated.

Thanks.

[

I don't disagree with anything you just said but suppose the Giants have also regressed? 

Posts like this make covers worth reading. 

Good luck this year Claw 

@Boisestateand8

 I appreciate your reply I’m just saying early on there is nothing special about a team coming off a season that they were 2-6 on the road and lost to the Panthers when laying -5.  I don’t vount out the Cardinals and I saw on the roster moves you mentioned but improving team are now best as favorites Cardinals will be a great dog and if this is a loss in week 1 I will love their perceived value even more.  

To the Claw:

Thank you best wishes this season!  You’re on point.

Thx claw, that post moves me off my Wash action.

 ........

I was pretty surprised my self seeing that info on you tube.

That is on top of my indicators which do show Wash to regress .

@C-70Blues........ according to my indicators Giants should improve in some areas like close wins.

1-8 last year, those teams tend do to well in week 1 when peoole are judging them based on poor play last season.

And they'll also be judging Wash on their big improvements  over the year before and their success last season.

@undermysac......

 Thank you, BOL this season 

@spottie2935........

Thank you, BOL to you. hopefully it works out but I think it is the right play long term.

I noticed all the chatter was regarding Washington's regression and there was no reasoning listed to back NY.

FYI - The Giants have averaged 5 wins per season since 2017. The fact that nobody got fired after trading away Saquon Barkley and finishing at the bottom of the NFC shows me this organization is in shambles.

Your welcome ........

But If you feel Wash is the right play using other info I wouldn't only apply the info I posted .

But  I will say that info is quite telling, I was pretty surprised to see the info from you tube, it fit my info with a play on Giants.

But as always there is other info as well to consider.

Yes I know Giants don't look good but they weren't good last season and only lost to Wash by 3 & 5 when Wash went 20 of 23 on 4th downs. How many did they get VS Giants and still couldn't beat them by over 1 score ?

The last 2 season the Cardinals average line  in away games is the 4th worst in the NFL at +6.2.  Cardinals surely should be better but this -6 line is absurd. They have not improved +12 points over their average line.  Clearly the Saints are a target that the lines makers know people will not be betting. And clearly the Saints have been very bad to be getting this line.   That’s why I mentioned this game.  I’m trying to beat a line and I don’t think the Cardinals have improved as much as this line indicates.  In my opinion -6 is way past a normal line adjustment.  If the Cardinals beat me fine.  

Saints are who they are but early in the season they are fresh and their age isn’t as much as a factor in a dome stadium in week1.  This game in Arizona would be -12 because of the line adjustment for home field advantage.  Cardinals will be a target for me when getting points and if they fail here the upcoming game lines should be more advantageous than -6 on the road. 

@theclaw

 Good luck this season’s bro!