Here is the records of each method from 2005 through 2017. Unfortunately I don't have each bracket record from 2016 to present but I do have the total record.
Each method has a lower bracket and higher bracket which produces a much higher probability ATS win.
All plays meet the higher bracket this year.
Close Wins a team by 8 or more --- 10-3 ATS (76.9%)
Improvements/declines by 9 or more --- 15-2%. But has lost a couple since 2017
Expected wins by 2.9 or more --- 18-7 ATS (72%)
Backing the top 2 in each method regardless of the amount has rarely produced a losing record in any year.
Last year went 5-3 ATS
Past 8 years regardless of amount --- 27-21-5 ATS (55.7%)
4 winning years-- 4-2, 4-2, 4-2, 5-3
3 years at .500
1 losing year.
Not bad with only 1 losing year in 8.
When do you suppose that losing years was ?
You got it, Covid first year. No fans in the seats, players that could and did opt out. 2-4-2 ATS
2021 2cd year was 3-3-1 ATS was the same if I remember correctly no fans and players could opt out.
Throw out those 2 years and we have --- 22-14-5 ATS good for 59.8%.
In those 6 years we had 4 winning records and 2 .500 records.
And that includes lower bracket plays which have much lower probabilities then the higher bracket plays.
This method has had like 3 losing years since 2005. You are crazy if you don't at least make small plays on these teams.
This is about as good an indicator as you can find to consistently produce winners or at least a .500 week with very little downside risk.
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