REGRESSION PLAYS WEEK 1...........................2025

I'll  have some info on KC and their pathetically  bad -4.8 expected wins.

I'll  tell you this, no team going back to 2009 was this bad, not a 1.

In fact only 1 team was over a -4 expected wins and that team regressed by 6 fewer wins the following season.

And that was another team win an unsustainable  amount of close 1 score games just like KC.

KC I think actually set the record.

Think it can't happen to Mahomes and KC ?

Check my post 75 the last post on the previous page if you haven't. 

I did a write up on Wash and why they regress giving the history going back to 2009.

I’m a k city person… and I think chiefs are tired… and will go thru the motions this season…. I have Buffalo going to superbowl from afc… I think adding bosa… who is always hurt… and ridding the cancerous wide receiver… is what they needed… just my 2 cents.   

Very good point ..................

KC played deeper into the season and had the added pressure of expectations placed on them. Not only physically draining but mentally  as well.

Chargers +3.5 (-120) over KC --- 2.4 units

Giants +6.5 (-115) over Wash --- 1.16 units

Pending Play .............

Giants +7 (-115) over Wash --- 1.15 units

This is the first year I made plays before the final week so I didn't always get the best lines.

And still rarely finished with a losing record.

I'm  thankful to get the 7 with Giants but one never knows whether the line could go to 7.5.

Who knows maybe the squares come in hard before opening day backing Wash.

Even at 6 Giants are the play.

I'll have some info on KC'S monstrous -4.8 expected wins coming soon.

If you don't think KC will regress they already have not once but twice in the Mahomes era and in the process produced the 2 worst records of the Mahomes era.

And now they have by far their largest negative expected wins. 

We'll  take a look at how a larger expected win negative or positive effects the number of games each team regressed.

KC win UNDER 11.5 games (-210) --- 2.1 units to win 1 unit

Don't be surprised if KC loses more close games after week 1 then they did all last season which was 0.

And they just might be 0-2 after 2 weeks.

Does it concern you that everyone, and I mean everyone, is taking the Giants in week one?

 ***fake news*** 

 ***fake news***  

even more public money now that McLaurin signed 30 yr old got paid! Interesting that in 5 seasons prior Terry had 11 redzone Tuds..last season alone he had 10. The dudes effective and clearly exceeds with JD.  Kinda surprising he only averaged 4.8 receptions for 66 yards. Certainly not mind blowing stats, and well imo the $96 million for 3 years for a Top 20 and not Top 10 WR is typical dumb Washington over spending… in fact I think they was robbed here. Mr Daniels was signed for $37.7 million over 4 seasons and actually is only guaranteed just over $9 million a year

JJ 

@C-70Blues

 I don't like it but these teams do still cover and I have been in this spot in week 1 and won before as most sharps have the same info I am using.

I checked scores and odds, 53% bets on Wash, 59% of the money on Wash.

What is really crazy is 72% of bets on KC while 84% money is on Chargers. But it is still a bit early, we'll  see how next week effects the final numbers.

I've never seen anything like this mismatch of bets and money. It is way out of balance suggesting Chargers are the right side by a landslide at this point anyway.

Unless that is a mistake. If this holds I throw another unit on Chargers most likely based only on this info.

42% of bettors on draftkings have the Giants, 37% on the KOC contest, so more people are on the Commanders.

I wouldn't put much stock in splits until next Thurs or Fri, but I just checked this morning and Draft Kings is:

KC  56% bets,  53% handle

LAC 44% bets, 47% handle

WAS 58% bets, 35% handle

NYG 42% bets, 65% handle

CIRCA is:

KC 38% bets, 50% handle

LAC 63% bets, 50% handle

WAS 38% bets, 94% handle

NYG 62% bets, 6% handle

@theclaw

Is this line a typo?  under 11.5 is currently around -130, or am I missing something?

Thanks for pointing that out ...................

I was thinking taking a 3 game regression would be under 12.5 that was the -210 which was a great price based on what I see out there.

72% probability they regress by 3 games based on past history.

Then I changed my mind and took a 4 game regression or under 11.5, I did get -135. But was still thinking about the -210 when I posted that pick.

Thanks again 

I agree. Things can change quite a bit by game time.

I think the point was not everyone is on the Giants as of now. I think good chance the squares come in next week on Wash as most likely sharps are taking Giants on that line early.

Would be my guess.

Yes line dropping coz likely sharps are on Giants I'd think from what I see on you tube with the sharp players.

EXPECTED WINS ...............2005 to 2024

Teams -2.5 or higher......

13 of 18 teams regressed by 3 games or more 72.2%

9 of 18 teams regressed by 4 games or more 50%

5 of 18 teams regressed by 5 games or more 33.3%

LARGER VS SMALLER EXPECTED WINS .........

Of the 18 teams exactly half or 9 teams were under -3 with 9 teams -3 or higher

Teams -2.5 to -2.9 ......

3 of 9 teams regressed by 4 games 33.3%

Teams -3 or higher ......

6 of 9 teams regressed by 4 games or more 66.7%

We can see that the larger the negative expected wins the larger the regression on average.

EXPECTED WINS ...............2005 TO 2024

Teams +2.5 or higher ...........

14 of 21 teams won 3 games more or better 66.7%

9 of 21 teams won 4 games more or better 42.9%

5 of 21 teams won 5 games more or better 23.8%

LARGER VS SMALLER EXPECTED WINS ......

Only 2 teams were +3 or  higher, one of those teams was 0-16 Browns +3.3 and they won 7.5 more games the next season.

The other team Falcons in 2020 was +3.6 they won 3 more games but this period is uniquely different and well see why later.

So with so few teams I dropped to +2.9

Teams +2.5 to +2.8 .........

2 of 15 teams won 5 games more or better 13.3%

Teams +2.9 or higher ............

4 of 6 teams won 5 games more the next season 66.7%

Here we see the larger teams winning 5 games or more not 4 games as we see in the negative expected wins.

But with a smaller sample size.

One conclusion we can definitely reach is both positive or negative expected wins by 2.5 or higher have regress by 3 games or more a pretty high % if the time.

And by 4 games or more if a larger expected wins.

So with KC at -4.8, that is the single largest negative or positive expected wins since 2005 and I looked up the 3 missing season so this includes all seasons. I even looked into teams before 2005 and basically found same results.

KC was -3.5 going into 2cd year of covid and the very first year of the 17 game schedule so they had an advantage of 1 additional  game.

They regressed by 2 games but could easily been 3 games if they won that extra game.

But they were not in line with 4 game regression with teams -3 or higher they were 1 of 3 teams not not regress by 4 games.

Going into 2023 season KC was -2.6 and regressed by 3 games which is right in line with teams -2.5 to -2.9. And had the worst record of Mahomes era.

So they are not immune to regression. They are pretty much like everyone else when regression  comes calling.

Here is the very interesting  part. Going into 2020 1st year of covid saw 6 teams - or + 2.5 or higher, the most of any year.

And of those 6 teams no team regressed by 3 games or more, none.

In 2021 the 2cd year of covid and the first year of 17 game schedule saw 3 teams - or + 2.5 or higher, with only 1 team regressing by 3 games or more.

Now that brings this 2 year total of 9 teams to only 1 team regressing by 3 games or more. 

And that 1 team was Falcons who I pointed out , the largest +3.6 expected wins .

Now when we look at KC being -3.5 and only regressing by 2 games and not being in line with the other teams -3 or higher who regressing by 4 games or more 66.7% of the time.

Now it is understandable why they did not regress as much as no teams did in that 2 year period.

If we throwout those 2 years as an anomaly the probabilities go up KC regressed by 4 games or more and that is a big part why I changed my mind from a 3 game regression to a 4 game regression.

I wonder if Chiefs will get favorable calls in Brazil otherwise I'm liking the Chargers to possibly get the cover hesitant to bet them on the ml as I typically do when taking dogs gl claw this season

In 2020 KC was 8-1 =+7 in 1 score close wins going into 2021 only to regress to 5-3= +2 a 5 game difference between wins and losses the next year.

That is a pretty big regression  of close wins, winning 3 fewer games and losing 2 more games.

In 2022 KC was 7-3 = +4 in close wins only to regress to 6-4=+2 a 2 game difference in wins and losses .

Now KC comes onto 2025 11-0 =+11 in close wins.

They regressed in close wins both years they were -2.5 or higher. And regressed a pretty good amount when they posted a very strong 8-1 record in close wins.

The better the record the more a team has to fall and remember  regression follows extreme performances. 

7-3 is not extreme or all that great so a team has less room to fall

Even if they post the best close win record in those seasons of 8-1=+7 which is not very likely that is still a 4 game difference between wins and losses.

If they go 7-3=+4 that is a 7 game difference between wins and losses.

They would need to win the remaining games by over 1 score games which Mahomes is not good at covering larger spreads . So how will the beat the easier teams by over 1 score, those are the teams u need to beat by over 1 score. 

I am pretty confident KC regressed by 3 games or more and likely 4 games.

I generally will play more conservative  as I put more value in not losing my money rather then being  risky going for bigger payouts so under 12.5 is much more conservative way to play KC.

A lot of people are calling for the Chiefs to further regress this year... Not me. 

Consider that last year Mahomes passed for the least amount of yards in his career, and was sacked the most times.  (You can attribute a lot of that to their offensive line troubles, particularly on the left side which amounted to a band-aid solution).  That tells me he wasn't able to stretch the ball downfield as much as he'd like because he didn't have time in the pocket.  Their WR corps looks solid this year, and Kelce seems to be taking this seriously by slimming down quite a bit.  Also, Pacheco and Hunt in the backfield is something they didn't have all of last year.    But most importantly, their OL seems to be much improved already, w rookie Josh Simmons from OSU asserting himself at left tackle. 

For all those close games that KC won last year, maybe they won't need to worry about them occurring so frequently.   People seem to be making the mistake that KC is standing still while DEN, LVR, and DEN get better.  

Congratulations on nabbing that great price.  KC Under 12.5 is -250 at Heritage.  Under 11.5 is -130.

no problem brother, you’re one of the best. Best wishes this season!