Pitt and Why

I like the fact that we have watched entertaining games from last Thursday -Yesterday - hopefully tonight will be another good one.    Let's look at some numbers:

-3        Houst        22 14 4 6 4 3

39.5      Pitt       26 22 13 29 16 11      

Houst opened as a 3 pt fav currently still -3  (madduxsports.com)  .   The o/under line opened at 39.5 - currently 38.

Houst is better in Off. rushing at 22 vs 26; Off Passing at 14 vs 22; Def rushing at 4 vs 13;  Def Passing at 6 vs 29;  Sagarin rank  4 vs 16 and Sagarin sched strength 3 vs 11.    As you can see Houst dominates in every category - Pitt is not good in any category above. 

Why Pitt - I look at Playoff data and regular season data - there's different ways I slice and dice it - but what the data shows me is during the playoffs - Atl played Philly -2018 I beleive- they were a 3 pt fav - philly took it 10-15 - Atl had a dominating def.    During the regular season several data points indicate take the home team as they often win it su or at least keep it with thin the spread and often the total goes under. 

My play tonight:

1. Pitt +3 

2. Pitt +3  and Under  38    small parlay  pays 2.4 to 1 

Good luck all

@TheBuddah

@LuckyGuy

 Thanks bud and back at ya

DA BOOOOOOOOOODA!

Bro when did you start explaining those secret sauce numbers that never line up? Good stuff!

so you have your numbers, but you decided on this game to ignore them?   

I like your numbers. Texans by 6

@TheBuddah

1 game?  And from 2018?  Everyone on that ATL team has either retired, or been fired... and for good reason.  This is 8 years later.

@TheBuddah

 Bol tonight

@barneybeans

 Lol - BOL bud

@Quaffer

 Obviously on paper Houst is better.    I don't ignore them - I find patterns within the data by going deeper into it.    The data tells me in these situations where a team has a dominate def and favored often the home team wins it su and often the under hits.    When you just stop at the top level and look at ranks, favorites - it doesn't always tell the whole story thus a deeper dive.   

@nmgolf57

 That's from playoff data - the regular season several more games.   These situations don't come up often in the plauoffs - thus 1 game with an opening line of -3 with similar numbers. 

@vankiep_0007

 Thanks bud back at ya. 

@nmgolf57

 "the players are retired"-  the players generate numbers - at that time the numbers they had generated are similar to the numbers these players generated.  Doing what history tells me.   

@TheBuddah   I believe in the buuudahh!!!  And like I told ya in our text I have this same play!! Let’s go!!

@TheBuddah

BOL!!

@Mikemcb29

 Thanks bud - Back at ya - Yes- Let's go!!!!!

@FelixFermin21

Back at ya Bud