Pay attention to what the betting markets are telling us...

Bill v. Broncos

On the surface, it seems as though the Bills have a lot working against them.  They're playing on a shorter week.  They're banged up across the board.  They're playing this contest at altitude in Denver. 

The Broncos are coming off a bye week.  They're rested, had time to heal up a little bit and they're playing at home.  If I remember correctly, Sean Payton has a good record coming off a bye.  He's had plenty of time to scheme a defense against Allen and Cook.

But with all the negatives for Buffalo and the positives for Denver, the line has held strong at 1/1.5 for a couple of days now.  It seems that Denver is the squarest play of the week.

For me, this game is a pass, but it should be fun to watch.  If I was forced to make a play, it would be on BUF.

Currently(from one source), 66% of the tickets are on the Bills. And the higher percentage has been on the Bills all week.

From another source, 69% are on the Bills.

Why would the Bills flip from a short fav to a short dog under such circumstances?

Just from that fractional element of handicapping any game, why do you feel like the Broncos are the "square" side?

Good Luck if you end up choosing a side 

I don't ever believe any data that shows which side has more tickets or more money.  Books are not obligated to share this info and why would they? Wouldn't it make more sense to keep the details of your handle to yourself?

To me, the square side is the side that Joe Public loves because it's an "obvious" play.  They spend 2 minutites handicapping a game (if that), and they compare W/L records, H/A records, and they like the fact that the Broncos are coming off a bye week.  I think the average casual bettor sees the line at better than -3 for the home team, especially in Denver, and thinks they're getting value.

If I had to guess, I'd say the line opened at Bills -1.5 to get action, and the squares fell for it, jumping on the Broncos as fast as they could, eventually flipping the spread.

@undermysac

 Ive seweng nothing close to that.  Its little more buff but not 66 to 70..there is a reason the 1 seed is a 1 pt fav to a place they protected all year and were a dog a few weeks ago.  Denver run game is where they can hurt buff and its not there.  Buff secondary has been dominate and I think u see josh put the cape on again carrying them to one step closer to what he deserves  

Books would NEVER tell us an accurate handle on the games or "what they need" truthfully

Remember the books arent our friends 

Can never trust when the info is accurate or not

I don't entirely trust any of those bet % numbers either. You can look at 6 different sources and they're all different. That's why I said it's just a "fractional" part of the handicap. For me, fractional might honestly mean only 1/16.

I was just asking the OP why he thought Denver was "square". He answered. I feel like the public will always bet Josh, especially when the other QB is named Bo.

To each their own 

@undermysac

 #1 seed, better record, at Mile High, Buff. hurt, short rest, and Den. starts out as a dog, now only favored by 1.5?????? GL with that.

a) books know all this info (injuries, rest, altitude, etc).  this isnt new to them.  it's all baked into the initial line.  so why would it move?  no new info has come out.

b) books and any other resource will never ever tell you the real story on number of bets, money bet.  even if there was some info out there, it can change very quickly, especially close to kickoff.  it's all just noise

 #3 @bluecompass 

Bottom line now that this game is been way overanalyzed by everyone, you have 2 choices it's called gambling either way!

What ever the narratives are in any sport, the game is played on the field so anything can happen on any given (Sun) day. 

@bluecompass

 I think you really don't have as much of a feel for what 'squares' are doing as you think.

Go into any Denver fan forum or look on here and all you hear about is how Josh Allen is superman and can win games by himself and it's his year now that Mahomes is out.

All the things you listed in Denver are actual legit reasons they should have never been a home dog as a number one seed. But i see little point in worrying about the line flipping and this OP is irrelevant as well. Either way the game is basically a pick em. And opinions seem likewise pretty even. Trying to figure out what 'squares and sharps' are doing is an utter waste of time. Cap the game based on your own analysis. We're all 'Joe Public' at the end of the day unless you're one of the guys fixing games you don't have any special insight and guess what the public win sometimes too.

@bluecompass- or the sharps in LV liking Denver and jumping +1.5!!! We don't know, only they do! 

@Macwestie1

 I choose option #3: No Bet 

@NutinButtLove 

You could be right. I might have misread this particular situation - it wouldn't be the first time. But I still think of all the square money on this game, the majority of it is on DEN.  I haven't paid any attention to the fan forums on either side.  I agree - it's a pick em.  That's why I'm staying away.

@haymo

 It's certainly a possibility.

Agreed. Disinformation with intent