Off season discussion

Something that gets very little attention but is a game changer is BET SIZING and

MONEY MANAGEMENT,both affecting ROI in a big manner. Fine tuning this aspect of wagering

MUST be as important as handicapping players,schemes, and modern changes in the NFL.

Agreed but that's an entirely different discussion.

@jowchoo

 Huge factor. Consistency is key in that aspect

What are the games you're actually playing?

Here is a query that favors CLV in week 1:

week = 1 and HD and n:A and -3.2 < n:line < 3.2

ATS:   28-14-2 (4.86, 66.7%) Z=2.01

Week 1 Home Dogs on the road (Away) next week with a next week's projected line of -3 to +3 points are 28-14-2 ATS with an average ATS margin of plus 4.86 points.

*******

Since CLV is currently just a 1 point dog in week 1 per Heritage Sports, I'll use the same pointspread that I'm using for week 2 (CLV is a 1 point dog at JAX in week 2 per Scores and Odds) in this adjusted query:

week = 1 and H and -3.2 < line < 3.2 and n:A and -3.2 < n:line < 3.2

ATS:   37-23-4 (3.90, 61.7%) Z=1.68, which is nowhere near the 1.96 Z-value to provide a coefficient of certainty at 95%.  However, the ATS margin is still nearly +4 so I am inclined to make a one-unit wager (idle so far).

Good luck everybody.  

"in sports betting you should want people to disagree with you!"

I disagree with you and am trying to discuss it here in your off-season discussion thread. Jump in any time.

I am basically a contrarian, as it is well known the public at large is a LOSER and since they heavily prefer FAVORITES and OVERS, betting DOGS and UNDERS

should give you a leg up right from the get go. Disagreement leads to VALUE, it is that simple, so I DISAGREE with you.....lol

What I would like to discuss is the querires portion of this thread but I do agree that being a contrarian is a key to success. 

@jowchoo any good queries regarding teasing larger favorites and week 1 stats? 

My contrarian anchor teaser system starts week 4. Early teasers will revolve around rookie qbs who win starting roles with their clubs.

I will use Vegas' projected scoring in those games to direct my teaser.If Vegas projects a rookie led team to get less than 17 pts, I will tease

the other team down. Rookie qbs who score less than 17 pts are (56-218) ats and that is without the teaser pts. If Vegas projects the rookie led team to score

to score more than 17, I will tease that team. (251-95) ats that's without the teaser insurance.

TOTAL silence from the guy who started this thread. I guess he only likes to "discuss" things when he's doing the talking and everyone else is listening.

Your first +EV teaser;

Fade last years SB LOSER and back last years SB WINNER in a 6 pt teaser -117

What sample size do you consider viable to bet on? You could have a 12-2 scenario that is ultimately just noise or overfitting data. I do similar capping to you, but prefer to find higher sample scenarios, usually over 150 games that hit over 60% vs closing line. 

If you actually look at the results you will see that Super Bowl runner-ups have gone 5-2 SU & 3-4 ATS in week one the last seven seasons.

@C-70Blues

I didn't.  Thanks.

I lean to NYJ, but I am not a fundamental handicapper and I have NO idea how quickly their new OFF line will gel.

Of all the teams with 11 wins or more the Browns have the most regression Indictators against them.  And there opp, Dallas has zero against them.

Browns were like 6-2 in close wins.

Both Dallas and the 9ers have no regression  against, same as last season. 

I haven't run everything  just yet but I'd  be careful fading those 2 teams.

Yes, that's why CLV's RSWL is only 8.5 at Heritage, and a small dog in Week 1 hosting DAL.  Most 11-wins teams are not home dogs in Week 1.  The regression is built into both lines.

I am NOT a fundamental handicapper, so I have absolutely no idea what to expect from oft-injured DeShaun Watson, especially in Week 1.  However, CLV did use 5 QBs last season (a record for any NFL playoff team), and DSW should be more productive than all of last season's scrubs.

What happened to this guy?