Off season discussion

Disregard the bottom part of the last post...I rushed it and got the parameters wrong.

Teams with the a rushing attempt differential going into a playoff game....for example, if team A has rushed 26 times a game, and their defense has allowed 24 rushes per game, that is a +2 rush attempts in an average game.  If their opponent, team B, has rushed 23 times a game and allowed 28 rushes, that is a -5 rush attempts per game.  Team A would have the rush attempt advantage.

In playoff games, team with the average net rushing attempts per game going into the game, as:

1)  Home favorites....50-56-2 ATS (-0.67)

2)  Home dogs........9-7-1 ATS (0.88)

3)  Away dogs.........50-45-2 ATS (-0.67)

4)  Away favorites....7-7-1 ATS (-2.87) 

playoffs=1 and HF, HD, AF, AD and tA(rushes-o:rushes)-oA(rushes-o:rushes)>0

If one can figure out who will win the rushing attempt battle, you are golden, but it is not as simple as using past averages to predict who that will be.

If we use an average rushing yards differential of 20 yards per game or more, this is slightly predictive.

An example....team A is rushing for an average of 130 yards per game and allowing 90 yards rushing per game or +40 yards/game.  Their opponent, team B, is rushing for 100 yards per game and allowing 120 yards per game, or -20.  Team A has a net rushing yards per game advantage of +60....we subtract, we don't average.

In the playoffs, the team with a >20 yards/game rushing yards differential advantage as:

1)  Home favorites 32-41-1 ATS (-1.27)

2)  Away dogs 39-27-1 ATS (0.93)  

Favorites in the playoffs this past season that had an average >20 yards/game rushing advantage were 2-5 ATS, and the lone away dog with this advantage went 0-1 ATS (Dolphins/Chiefs).....since 2017, those teams have gone 8-18 ATS, including 7-14 ATS at home and 0-2 in the Super Bowl, with the Eagles and the 49ers losing straight up to the Chiefs. 

Let's analyze the data to figure out what is actually happening:

PO = 1 and rushes > o:rushes

SU:  213-42, 83.5%

ATS:  194-56-5, 77.6%

Team YPRA:  137.1/32.7 = 4.19 --- That is not exactly indicative of SU and ATS domination.

Team YPPA:  235.5/32.1 = 7.32

Opp YPPA:  238.8/38.2 = 6.25

7.32/6.25 = 1.1712 --- The team's passing was 17.12% more efficient than the opponent's, and the opponent committed twice as many turnovers.

My analysis makes me believe that teams build up a lead through 3 quarters by a stronger passing game and avoiding turnovers and/or grabbing takeways.  Teams with a solid lead of 10+ points going into the 4th quarter would tend to rush while the trailers tend to pass.  Closer games would tend to be more equal with rushing attempts.

@Indigo999

 Are those all-time results?

We now have three lines out for the upcoming season.

Browns -1 Cowboys

Eagles -1 Packers

Chiefs -2' Ravens

1)  A week 1 away dog who won more than 9 games the previous season, who also won more regular season games than their present opponent has gone 3-12-1 ATS (-7.50), 1-15 straight up, (-10.75)....VERSUS Ravens, Cowboys

2)  A week 1 away dog that was a playoff team the previous season....22-40-4 ATS..VERSUS Ravens, Cowboys, Packers(?)

My opinion is that the Cowboys will be in for a tough season.   Will not go against Regular-Season-Lamar.  Packers are playing a neutral site game.

PLAYS:

1)  Browns -1

2)  Packers +1

2a)   Week 1 away dogs that made the playoffs last season that had the lesser regular season record the previous season than their present opponent went 13-13 ATS, 12-9-2 ATS in non-divisional games...Packers

2b)  Week 1 away dogs that made the playoffs last season that had a >= regular season winning percentage than their present opponent  the previous season...9-27-2 ATS....VERSUS Ravens, Cowboys

3)  Week 1 away dogs that won 4, 5 or 6 games last season....69-35 ATS....possible week 1 away dogs....Commanders, Cardinals, Patriots, Chargers, Giants, Titans

  a)  if the line is 6 points or less 38-12-6 ATS (+4.55), 24-32 straight up (0.71).

  b)  if the line is 6 points or less AND our play-on team won less games last season than their present opponent 31-7-4 ATS (+5.63), 18-24 straight up (+1.52)

week=1 and AD and line<=6 and 7>PRSW>3 and PRSW<o:PRSW

I like all of the above teams to be improved next season and I predict at least two will make the playoffs.

4)  There have been 269 teams that have won 4, 5, or 6 games the previous season, the median wins for those teams the next season has been 7 wins....now because there are 17 games in the regular season, rather than 16 games we can add an extra .5 games to that total to make it a median of 7.5 wins for those teams.

Consensus betting season over/under regular season wins

  a)  Patriots 4.5

  b)  Commanders 6.5

  c)  Cardinals 6.5

  d)  Giants 6.5

  e)  Titans 6.5

  f)  Chargers 8.5

I would not consider the Pats or the Giants....the others I like to go OVER.

Thx indigo, as usual "OUTSTANDING STUFF"

A special THX for sharing the query text, so much to learn..................good luck

Indigo - 

Do you make wagers based on just your query info?

No, I haven't made any plays.

80% of my plays are based on historical data, some of those indicated plays I don't make, as in the case of the Ravens week 1.  Once in awhile I don't use any data, but rarely.

3)  Week 1 away dogs that won 4, 5 or 6 games last season....69-35 ATS....possible week 1 away dogs....Commanders, Cardinals, Patriots, Chargers, Giants, Titans

Week 1 away dogs

1)  Commanders +4      at  Bucs

2)  Titans +4'               at  Bears

3)  Patriots +8             at  Bengals

4)  Cardinals +7          at   Bills

5)  Home favorites in week 1 that missed the playoffs the previous season who had the better regular season record than their week one opponent....45-66-5 ATS....VERSUS Bengals, Bears, Saints, Seahawks....this moves to 18-30-5 ATS if the line is 6 or less.....VERSUS Bears, Saints, Seahawks

6)  Week 1 home favorites with the worse regular season record the previous season in comparison to their present opponent's previous season regular season record....49-31-6 ATS.....ON Browns, Chargers, Colts, Falcons......if our home favorite's week 1 opponent made the playoffs the previous season this moves to 19-7-1 ATS....ON Browns, Colts, Falcons 

)  Home favorites in week 1 that missed the playoffs the previous season who had the better regular season record than their week one opponent....45-66-5 ATS....VERSUS Bengals, Bears, Saints, Seahawks....this moves to 18-30-5 ATS if the line is 6 or less.....VERSUS Bears, Saints, Seahawks

Thankyou, any chance to get this query?

Colts and Browns have become home underdogs so they no longer qualify under angle #6.

NYG have become home favorites over the Vikings to qualify under angle #6.

HF and week = 1 and PRSW>o:PRSW and tpS(playoffs)=0

Very well put jowchoo. All those queries will regress at some point. 

The question is.....why would you expect a short-term trend/angle/query to have staying power and not a long-term trend?   What is the point of differentiation?....one year of an angle?...one month?....5 years?...and how do you or anyone else decide what that is?

Bookmakers now have made the vig on teasers very high, acknowledging your observation that they have been getting beat by those skilled at teasers.  

Perhaps you'll beat the house over a season in the NFL using two team teasers using a vig of -125 or greater  using 12-0 angles, but I doubt it. 

If you can do so, I'll tip my hat to you

Here is an NFL angle that has gone 92-53-5 ATS since 2015, or 63.4% against the spread, this moves to 66-23-3 ATS, 74.2% when our away dog has a line of less than +7.

Included in that is its 3-6 ATS record for last season, so there was major regression of this angle last season, which in part led me to have a poor NFL season.

Is this angle with over a 150 game sample size no longer valid or was it a one year anomaly?  That is the 100,000 dollar question.  I am rolling with it this season, as what I have observed is that once every 4-5 years, an angle will regress before continuing on,...no different than the stock market that has dips on its way upwards.

Here is the angle...

AD and season>2015 and line<oA(margin)+3-tA(margin) and week<7

This is based on calculating a line based on straight statistics and taking an away dog off a loss if the Vegas line is less than the calculated line.

Example......in week 4 Team A  lost and now are on the road playing Team B and are a 4 point away dog.  Team A has averaged scoring 15 points/game and allowing 20 points/game for an average -5 points/game.  Team B has scored 21 points per game and allowed 18 points/game for a +3 points/game average differential.  By subtracting team A's average scoring differential from Team B's, Team B has a 8 points/game scoring differential (subtracting NOT averaging).  We give Team B 3 points for home field,...the calculated line is Team B -11.  Instead Team B is only a four point favorite.  

What gives? 

If you are a "value better", you're taking Team B....however the angle dictates otherwise.  According to the query, you take the team with the value disadvantage.

I will be taking those teams who fit these parameters in the coming season and if this has another bad season then the books will be getting a donation from me.

For me, it is simply an acknowledgement that the NFL game is evolving and we should be cognizant of that fact. Rule changes, much better athletes now than 20 years ago, Parity is coveted by the league (affecting officials) , OCs and DCs stategies much different, analytics now being used,going on 4th and short from anywhere.Yes, the game is different. I still respect long term trends but have upgraded my short term trend valuations. I plan on crushing it this year using teasers on games with low totals and regression candidates mixed in with solid SHORT TERM SDQL results..........................gl going forward

Your perception is your reality, as is mine.

That is what makes a (sports betting) market, and I've mentioned this before....in the sports betting realm we should welcome disagreement.  We all have seen a poster's headline "Covers Bloodbath", where everyone on one side gets annihilated.....I get an uneasy feeling if everyone agrees with me, because most bettors lose. 

We'll see soon enough if our differing views bring  success to both, one or neither one of us......

Post #69 was not complete....covers  will erase some of the highlighted text when posting.....below is the complete text.  When filtering out teams that are greater than 6 point dogs this moves to 61-17 ATS (+5.04), 78.2%, 46-34 straight up with an average line of +3.9

AD and season>2015 and line<6.5 and line<oA(margin)+3-tA(margin) and week<7 and p:L

Using numbers that only go back to 2015 I'm guessing you're about 30 years old.

Indigo don't even tell him, look how young you are now. 

Call you soon.

@Indigo999

 Regarding post 51 and 52 and rushing attempts

A team leading in a game , especially in the 2nd half will usually run the ball more often to keep the clock moving...which would skew rushing attempts week to week

If they up 20 in the 4th they probably not gonna throw the ball much, if at all...and just pound the run 

If they trailing by 10 in the 4th they usually go pass heavy 

Basically the result of the previous games rushing stats depends on if the team was winning or losing in the 2nd half

Great info as always 

Don't week 1 games hit at like 66% under? Especially if total over 46.5

Week 1 lines out

Initial gut leans

Dal/cle under 44.5

Ten/chi under 44.0

Car/no under 41.0

Min/nyg under 42.0

Den/sea under 42.0

Wsh/tb under 42.0