Off season discussion

In the last 4 years:

Each year there are 32 team ats records for sides and totals.

Over these 4 years that equates to 128. When a team runs in the same direction (ov ov ov ov) or ( W W W W ), a few things happen.

Vegas adjusts their numbers creating value against the recency bias  auto bettors and contrarian punters surface as bottom feeders. They hold their noses and go

the other "side or total" Well, when totals got an imbalance of 4 to the over then ONLY 12 times did it NOT regress (12/128 ..93%) and this is without points from

teaser. Teams running a winning imbalance were (23/128..82%) regression. This sharply rises when coupled with insurance teaser points. Suppose team A has a

+4 winning ats record at some point in the season and is now a pick on the road with the total at 37.5. This situation is GOLD as the points are at a premium on

game where teams are projected to score low and Vegas has tried to stop the bleeding of free money for the auto bettors.

[Quote: Originally Posted by jowchoo]In the last 4 years: Each year there are 32 team ats records for sides and totals. Over these 4 years that equates to 128.

I have a story about regression.  I was in Washington in the military and my idea was to go to Reno and get rich.  I would wait until the roulette wheel had three straight odds (or evens), or three straight reds (or blacks), and then bet the opposite.

I lost 12 straight times,....and slunk back to Washington with my tail between my legs.

I didn't follow your explanation other than you are thinking teasers are the answer, using regression, and if I didn't comprehend, not many other will either.

The purpose of putting researched queries on this site is to make bettors aware and hopefully improve their success in a way that everyone can understand and clearly see past results, plus it puts down on an easily found internet source successful trends that might get lost at my house if I've just written them down, so it helps me as well. 

I didn't provide the query text, because recently those query texts in covers were not being copied onto my threads correctly, and most bettors aren't using the text and inputting it into killersports with the idea of checking my work or tweaking some aspect of my parameters anyway.

If you decide to put what you found onto my threads, make it concrete and easy to follow, so bettors can see results.

As far as your premise that using only this year's results or the few years is a better way to go, I don't agree...generally I would rather have a 100 game sample of games hitting 57% over the past 20 years and than a 12 game sample that has gone 12-0.  Have I in the past used shorter term trends?...yes, but generally they have not been as successful.

Killersports used to have a weekly angle section that related to each team with angles that were 12-0 ATS, 10-0 etc.  I looked at those trends and followed along and kept track for a season......they ended up performing at a 50% rate.

What happened last year I believe was an anomaly.....for example last year favorites ruled....I don't believe favorites will continue to do so, as number one, the public bets favorites and the sportsbooks will adjust accordingly to continue to be profitable, and two, it is going against a 40 year history of the NFL.  In the stock market as you are aware, there are black swan events that happen that last for awhile, and then the markets revert to what usually happens.  Every 5 or 6 years in the NFL, there seems to be one year where prevailing angles don't seem to work, with last year until the playoffs being one of them.

If I find that favorites continue to cover early next season, I will be out of the NFL sports betting game.

I looked at your post again....if I understand this correctly, when a team has an imbalance of W/L or O/U of +4 or -4, you play the opposite way?....so if a team is 4-0 against the spread you would fade them, or if a team was 0-4 o/u you would play OVER.

in running this in killersports here is what I got since 2019...

  a)  teams on a four game winning ATS streak exactly went 25-27 ATS, 13-37 using a 6 point teaser

  b)  teams on a four game losing streak ATS went 33-19 ATS, 42-10 using a six point teaser

  c)  teams on a four game UNDER streak 43-41-2 o/u, 62-22-2 o/u using a six point teaser

  d)  teams on a four game OVER streak 16-30-1 o/u, 8-39 o/u using a six point teaser

Angles b and d look good, both from a teaser and an against the spread standpoint.  With teasers, the breakeven percentage now with the increased vig being charged by the sportsbooks is around 76%, so both legs of a teaser if you are using historical data should be above 76%.

It wasn't clear to me if you would also play the opposite way if there was a cumulative +4 or -4 in season-long results, for example, if a team was 6-2 ATS for the season, would you fade them their next game?, or if a team was 1-6 o/u, in your assertion would you play them OVER?....or are we only talking about four game streaks?

Not streaks, NET imbalances.If a team has gone net 4 to the over,then tease the total over and play UNDER. Teasers will still be available at the old prices but line shopping and multiple outs will be necessary.I still believe current iterations of NFL rules and philosophies necessarily change significant historical successes and maybe the post 2018 sample size becomes more relevent.I will also suffer if this year in the NFL even remotely follows last year.

UFL starts this weekend....as always we will look into the coaches and the quarterbacks.  

Holtz I like the most as a coach and Nolan is the worst.....besides Nolan being terrible as a defensive coach, he never seems to have a decent offense either.  We might watch and see if there is something worth betting on in the coming weeks.

NFLPA ratings of various parts of each organization have come out, which I wasn't aware until just now these have gone on for quite awhile.  

There were some eye opening ratings of the owners......Rooney of Pittsburgh, Bidwell of Arizona and Hunt of the Chiefs were all rated F or F-.

The Bidwells have always been hated as owners for the past 30+ years and the media in St. Louis and Arizona have not been shy about it, so along with the players, they've not gotten the media onboard with them either.

I lived in St. Louis when the Cardinals were there, and I saw and read about it first-hand.

I have not lived in Pittsburgh or Kansas City, and it seemed to me the Rooney's were well-loved by everyone, especially the media.  Someone could set me straight on that about the media, but it is quite obvious the players detest him.

The greatness of both Reid and Mahomes shows up again, as despite having ownership that is despised by the players, they've won a few Super Bowls.

Good ol NFL! Gotta love it! Lots of info. 

RLeith should be VERY interested in this meaningless "informative" thread.

Bills over the 49ers in the super bowl.

@C-70Blues

 Bills over the 49ers in the super bowl.

Super Bowl loser curse for Niners.... 

You might want to check w/ Circa.  I remember them offering these types of "NOT" bets that are you are referencing for the Stanley Cup last year.  

Perhaps they offer these types of bets as well for NFL Divisions.. 

The Chiefs can't seem to catch a break with their WRs.  Last year they struggled w/ consistency until their playoff run..  Now, one of their playmakers, Rashee Rice w/ his dumb street/freeway race in Dallas,  faces an uncertain future in the NFL this year (and forever?) 

Well, the draft is over.....as always the NFL is a master of marketing, and guys like Mel Kiper get paid very well to go on and on and on about how it will all play out for the players and teams.

It has been quite awhile since anyone has thought the Bears were relevant and now, they have a chance to be.  I don't like their number one pick nearly as much as most, and I feel he'll be a very polarizing as a face of a franchise and an alpha number one quarterback, but if he is polarizing as Terry Bradshaw or Jim Mcmahon were in their time, all well and good.  We can get enchanted by how the Bears finished last season....I find them to be an intriguing team now.  The division for the first time in quite awhile could be really good from top to bottom.

And up now is ESPN's fantasy projections for each of the first round quarterbacks....that JJ McCarthy had the biggest fantasy projection was surprising......I would have made Daniels the highest projection, as they will have a run and gun offense under Kliff Kingsbury and he almost certainly will be the day 1 starter and McCarthy shouldn't be, unless Sam Darnold displays again why he's never done anything in the NFL. 

Teams are gonna have to chase Daniels all over the field, like they did with Jalen Hurts his first couple of seasons and he should put up big numbers for himself and his team.  Jalen Hurts though set records in the weight room as a qb, and Daniels is considerably less put together than Hurts, and  Hurts had (or it is has?) a knee problem throughout last season.    I feel Washington will be the biggest improvers from their previous season in 2024 and in a division where no team ever repeats as a division winner, if I could get +500 on the 'Skins (Commanders) I might take them to win the division, as I see the Cowboys having a tough season next year.  Daniels could have a Randall Cunningham, Michael Vick kind of career or be a Robert Griffin, or even a Daunte Culpepper, who people forget for a couple of seasons was close to an MVP caliber player.

That Atlanta picked a qb....pretty interesting to have paid a quarterback over 100 million dollars and then draft a guy number one.  It tells me that they're planning on Cousins for two seasons, and if he gets hurt or hasn't recovered fully from his injury they have another guy.  Steven A. Smith, for all his bluster was right on Cousins....he's made 239 million bucks and won one playoff game in his career....what a country!   That whole division is a shambles.....Carolina could win 7 games playing in that division this season.

The last interesting team will be the Chargers....Harbaugh's teams have always gotten better, very quickly, in every place he's become head coach.  They will find ways to win games instead of figuring out how to lose them as they have for the past few years.  They will be very well conditioned and, they will be THE ground and pound team of the NFL along with the Ravens....they win 10 games in 2024, beat the Chiefs at least one game  and make the playoffs....if they had a prop bet on them making it to the Super Bowl some time in the next four years at say +300, I would take it. 

The Chargers should be good at getting us money as sports bettors, as teams that outrush attempt their opponent cover 75% of their games, close to 79% of the time on the road, which is why the Ravens and Jackson have had a prolific road against-the-spread record.

rushes>o:rushes and H, A

@Indigo999

 Great write-up on the draft on those teams ... 

It's funny, I had the exact same 3 words come out of  my mouth on the Chargers after the first round of the draft... "" Ground And Pound"".  I mean , this team had the 5th pick in the draft,..... and they pick a giant of offensive linemen.  If that doesn't send a message to what they are looking to achieve,  nothing will.  I mean, they lost 2 pretty damn good WRs in the offseason ( Mike Williams & Keenan Allen), and Harbaugh has the guts to say we will rebuild from the inside out. 

I've always been a big believer that " the trenches" are the most underappreciated part of Football.   The " big uglies" dont get a whole lotta love ( shout out to Zeppelin), but giving the QB 1 extra second in the pocket can be the difference maker to making the completion to " an average " wide receiver,  so I get the Harbaugh pick.  Plus, a good  OL can push the line in the running game.  Like I said,  it's an under appreciated part of the game.  Oh, and the Chargers signed BOTH RAVENS RBs Dobbins and Gus Edwards.   I love it, and can't wait to see the pieces work together.  

@Indigo999

 Like you, I have some trepidation on Caleb Williams .  I didn't come away overly impressed w his QB talent as much as lots of people in the limited games I watched.   Penix is much better .  And I don't care much for his " primadonna " flashy, self interest, either  This guy displays none of the characteristics of another recent rookie like C.J. Stroud.  For every Stroud in the 1st round, you seem to get 19 Ryan Leaf's.   

Also, CHI were in the 1st quartile for sacks given up in 2023.  Somebody in Chicago or that watched lots of Bears games last year needs to enlighten us if their OC us woeful,  or did Fields hang on to the ball in the pocket too long ? 

I realize CHI has weapons at WR, but rookie QBs always have a helluva time adjusting to the speed of the NFL game.  I have  the impression that CHI is a bit overvalued to make the playoffs at basically even money, considering the NFC teams in front of them. 

Caleb Williams seems to be to use a old school description, a hot dog.  Style for him takes precedence over everything else, when a team like Notre Dame pressured him, he fell apart mentally.  Those kinds of selfish players I used to hate to play with, but they were great to play against.  He was in a system where the quarterback should be the star....he'd come off the field and none of his teammates wanted to be around him....that is huge red flag for me....I agree that Penix was the better quarterback in that conference...though Penix's injury history is a concern....not getting injured is a skill in sports, and there's guys like Byron Buxton who don't have the ability to stay on the field,  despite having everything else....obviously you can't benefit your team if you're in a whirlpool when it's game time.

I would bet on the Bears to not make the playoffs at even money, as their coach hasn't distinguished himself either...saw yesterday that the Commanders are +1000 to win the division.....their defense will be in the upper half of the league next year with their new coach, if I were making their line it would be around +400.  As always, I like to handicap the head coaches and the quarterbacks, and the Commanders could have both the best head coach and the best quarterback in that division.

Rush, indigo,  Nice stuff on the draft, some head scratchers :Atlanta being the largest.

Rush, I whole heartedly agree about the line of scrimmage being (along with indigo's QB/HC) the main

peices of the puzzle to long term success in nfl wagering. I have briefly chatted with indigo on developing some sort of

LOS (Line of scrimmage) stat for teams. Based on this query

rushes>o:rushes and sacks>o:sacks and H,A where Away candidates went 1838-301 (86%) ats and HOME were 2144-560 (79%)

Now if you add DOG to the query you get

AWAY: 1036-83 (93%) ats

HOME: 505-57 (90%) ats

(18-1) last year ;-)

I am working on using teasers with games that have low totals and regression candidates as well

While digging around line of scrimmage ideas, I discovered a nugget. Never realized how strong the sacks filter was.

Just on it's own. sacks>o:sacks and season=2023 yields (164-74) 69% ats, a very nice starting data point.

I never used sacks last year but will surely use them this year.

Another LOS confirmation:

qb hits>o:qb hits and season=2023 and H,A

AWAY: 86-31 (74%)ats

HOME: 89-40 (69%) ats

RFD>o:RFD and season=2023 and H,A

HOME: 88-48 (65%) ats

AWAY: 76-36 (68%) ats.....................basically won 2 of every 3 games=MONEY

Yes line of scrimmage is the KEY.

Another LOS metric winner.

TOP>o:TOP and season=2023 and H,A

AWAY: 42-40 (67%) ats

HOME: 94-51 (65%) ats

My current situation here in Thailand is challenging as we are in the middle of a prolonged

thermal blast furnace. I love tropical heat but this SUCKS. 10 days and counting 110F with another 10 days

forecast...;-(

AWAY: 82-40

Chargers have Greg Roman as their offensive coordinator after having been the Ravens coordinator for many years.....they will be Baltimore West.  Obviously, Justin Herbert is no Lamar Jackson running the ball, but I've heard he is doing yoga, ballet and  meditation to bring out the inner Lamar Jackson that we all possess.

Chargers future stats should approximate the Ravens', the one thing perhaps that will be different is the Chargers have a quarterback that can throw the ball, unless his arm atrophies from lack of use....lol.

Ravens' against the spread record since Jackson has started at quarterback....he missed four games in 21, 22 which are NOT accounted for.

Ravens since 2018 as a:

1)  Home favorite  20-27 ATS.....1-3 playoffs

2)  Away favorite 18-13 ATS.......1-0 playoffs

3)  Away dog 15-3 ATS..............1-1 playoffs

4)  Home dog 4-1 ATS

37-17 ATS as a non-home favorite....we should all own our little private islands by the end of next season after betting the Ravens in the above situations.....

Underdogs that out rush attempt their opponent have gone 26-1 ATS in the playoffs.

@Indigo999

 What is the record for favorites that out-rush attempt their opponent in playoff games?

Ravens open as +2.5 point road underdogs....Ravens with Action Jackson have been 15-3 ATs as road underdogs.

The 26-1 ATS record as away dogs that out rush attempt their opponent evidently was not accurate....perhaps I put in another parameter that tightened the results, I don't recall.

The playoffs results in the database goes back about 20 years.....here are the results for all the possible scenarios for teams that outrush attempt their opponents.  Keep in mind that just because a team had a high rush attempt advantage going into the game doesn't mean that is how it will play out in the actual game....case in point was the Browns playing at the Texans this past season.

Playoffs, teams outrush attempt their opponent as:

1)  Home favorites 85-34-2 ATS (+6.02), 71.4%

2)  Home dogs.....13-2-1 ATS (+11.00), 86.7%

3)  Away dogs......71-8-1 ATS (+9.61), 89.9%

4)  Away favorites..11-3-1 ATS (+7.40), 78.6%

playoffs=1 and HF, HD, AF, AD and rushes>o:rushes

Here are the results of each of the four parameters of average rushing attempt differential advantage going into the game.

1)  Home favorites 50-45-2 ATS

2)  Home dogs......50-56-2 ATS

3)  Away dogs.......9-7-1 ATS

4)  Away favorites..7-7-1 ATS