So I decided to take a look at how past Super Bowl games turned out when using Net Points Per Drive to predict winners.
Let’s first look at how we can use NPD to determine a true point spread.
Seattle’s NPD is 1.15
New England’s NPD is 1.04
This gives us a gap of 0.11
If we want to find a fair point spread we multiply 0.11 x 10 Which gives us a fair line of Seattle -1- 1.5
As of right now you’re getting great value on the patriots +4.5.
With a Net PPD gap of 0.11, an underdog at +4.5 covers about 58–60% of the time.
Now you may ask? How does this relate to past games.
There have been 3 superbowls where the NPD gap were similar to this year’s superbowl. The gap was between 0.10-0.15
Super Bowl LVIII (2024): Chiefs vs. 49ers
Final: Chiefs 25 – 49ers 22 (OT)
Super Bowl LVII (2023): Chiefs vs. Eagles
•Final: Chiefs 38 – Eagles 35
Super Bowl XLIX (2015): Patriots vs. Seahawks
Final: Patriots 28 – Seahawks 24
As you can see the favorites covered in all of those games but they didn’t cover the line of -4.5. In addition to that all of the games went over the total of 45.
I was on the fence with the patriots but this sealed it for me . Good luck to those who follow!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
So I decided to take a look at how past Super Bowl games turned out when using Net Points Per Drive to predict winners.
Let’s first look at how we can use NPD to determine a true point spread.
Seattle’s NPD is 1.15
New England’s NPD is 1.04
This gives us a gap of 0.11
If we want to find a fair point spread we multiply 0.11 x 10 Which gives us a fair line of Seattle -1- 1.5
As of right now you’re getting great value on the patriots +4.5.
With a Net PPD gap of 0.11, an underdog at +4.5 covers about 58–60% of the time.
Now you may ask? How does this relate to past games.
There have been 3 superbowls where the NPD gap were similar to this year’s superbowl. The gap was between 0.10-0.15
Super Bowl LVIII (2024): Chiefs vs. 49ers
Final: Chiefs 25 – 49ers 22 (OT)
Super Bowl LVII (2023): Chiefs vs. Eagles
•Final: Chiefs 38 – Eagles 35
Super Bowl XLIX (2015): Patriots vs. Seahawks
Final: Patriots 28 – Seahawks 24
As you can see the favorites covered in all of those games but they didn’t cover the line of -4.5. In addition to that all of the games went over the total of 45.
I was on the fence with the patriots but this sealed it for me . Good luck to those who follow!
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