LAST WEEK WAS MY FIRST LOSING WEEK IN THE NFL. EXCITED ABOUT THIS WEEK.
TODAY:
Michael Vick was frustrated by the Bears' defensive scheme on Monday Night Football, with 21/38 for 213 yards passing, zero TDs and one interception to his credit during the 24-30 loss (Vick rushed for 5/34/0 during the contest). He's been inconsistent as a passer over the last three games, with a 58.1% completion rate at Washington three weeks ago (18/31 for 237 yards, one TD and one interception); then a nice 75% rate vs. Dallas two weeks ago (21/28 for 279 yards, two TDs and zero interceptions) before regressing back to 55.3% vs. Chicago this week. Five players have seen 12 or more targets during those three games: Brent Celek (27 for 18/196/2); DeSean Jackson (20 for 8/93/0); Jeremy Maclin (19 for 12/218/1); LeSean McCoy (12 for 9/74/0); and Jason Avant (12 for 10/122/0).
The Cardinals' pass D is ranked 29th in the NFL, averaging 272 net yards allowed per game, with nine passing TDs given up over eight agmes, with six interceptions (tied for 21st in the league) and 20 sacks (tied for 11th) generated to date. Sam Bradford was limited to 23/36 for 233 net yards (four sacks taken), zero TDs and one interception last week; Joe Flacco put up 31/51 for 298 net yards (three sacks taken), zero TDs and one interception vs. the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Cardinals' pass D allows plenty of movement between the 20's, but they are tough to score on when the field is compressed (also, they've given up 11 rushing TDs, tied for worst in the league, so teams tend to run the ball in around the goal line).
John Skelton (20/35 for 222 yards, one TD and zero interceptions passing last week) played well enough to keep the Cardinals close to the Rams, and in overtime Patrick Peterson ran back a punt 99 yards for a game-winning score to put the Cardinals over the top last week, 19-13. Skelton relied on the usual cast of receivers during week nine, with 12 targets for 4/43/1 flowing to Larry Fitzgerald, seven for 5/55/0 going to Andre Roberts, and six for 6/78/0 landing with Early Doucet. As Kevin Kolb looks very iffy for the matchup with his old team as of mid-week - his turf toe injury is still a significant issue for Kolb - it is likely that Skelton will start again for the Cardinals in week 10. So far, he's doubled the team's tally of wins to two, so there isn't much downside for the Cardinals with this situation.
The Eagles handed over 18/32 for 208 net yards passing, two TDs and zero interceptions to Jay Cutler last week, after giving up 18/35 for 182 net yards, one TD and one interception to Tony Romo two weeks ago - the big difference from week nine compared to week eight was that Romo was sacked four times by the Eagles, while Cutler took zero sacks and zero hits during the Chicago victory. The lack of pass pressure on Cutler allowed the Bears to salt away the victory during the fourth quarter on Monday night. Currently the Eagles are ninth in the NFL averaging 211.8 net yards allowed per game, but they have given away a hefty 14 passing TDs over eight contests, with eight interceptions (tied for 13th in the NFL) and 22 sacks (tied for eighth in the NFL) to date.
Skelton did a workmanlike job vs. the Rams, but given that Arizona is 29th in the NFL with 27 sacks allowed through eight games, he'll likely feel some heat from the wounded Eagles on Sunday. This looks like a tough matchup for the visiting Cardinals.
LeSean McCoy did his best to beat the Bears, with 16/71/1 rushing and 5/46/0 receiving to his credit on Monday night - it wasn't McCoy's fault that the Eagles dropped the game 24-30. Over the past three games, McCoy can boast of 74/382/4 rushing with 12 targets for 9/74/0 receiving, while Michael Vick has posted 19/138/0 rushing during that time frame - in this phase of the game it's all good for the Eagles.
The Cardinals' rush D ranks 16th in the NFL through nine weeks, averaging 117.8 yards allowed per game. They are tied for worst in the NFL with 11 rushing TDs allowed, though - these guys are vulnerable in the red zone. St. Louis cranked out 35/150/0 rushing at Arizona last Sunday; Baltimore slammed them with 26/107/3 rushing two weeks ago.
This is a great matchup for McCoy and Vick.
Chris Wells struggled to produce vs. St. Louis, with 10/20/0 rushing and 2/13/0 receiving on the day - after the game, the team reported that he suffered a neck stinger during the contest. However, with his aching knee already affecting Wells' game, we're concerned that his rapid decline from week eight's 22/83/1 rushing performance at hard-nosed Baltimore is a sign of things to come.
The Eagles coughed up 24/133/0 to Matt Forte on Monday Night Football, and Marion Barber punched in a TD with 9/31/1 rushing - all told, the Bears rang up 34/164/1 rushing on the Eagles - the problems with the middle of their defensive front continue to plague the Eagles' rush D. To date, the unit is ranked 23rd in the NFL averaging 124 yards allowed per game, with seven TDs given up so far this year - Dallas managed 10/85/0 rushing at Lincoln Financial Field two weeks ago, while anemic Washington put up just 14/42/1 three contests ago - the Eagles' rush D is heading in the wrong direction entering the second half of the season.
Two under-performing units face off in this game - this looks ugly but about even.
MY PREDICTION:
The Eagles will run all day against the Cardinals with McCoy and Vick. Vick will also have success hitting Maclin, Avant and Celek in the passing game against the 29th worst pass defense. I just dont see the Cards keeping up in this one with a banged up Beanie Wells. Skelton should be on his back most of the day and the Eagles will have a blowout win!
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -14
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD 29-17-1
LAST WEEK WAS MY FIRST LOSING WEEK IN THE NFL. EXCITED ABOUT THIS WEEK.
TODAY:
Michael Vick was frustrated by the Bears' defensive scheme on Monday Night Football, with 21/38 for 213 yards passing, zero TDs and one interception to his credit during the 24-30 loss (Vick rushed for 5/34/0 during the contest). He's been inconsistent as a passer over the last three games, with a 58.1% completion rate at Washington three weeks ago (18/31 for 237 yards, one TD and one interception); then a nice 75% rate vs. Dallas two weeks ago (21/28 for 279 yards, two TDs and zero interceptions) before regressing back to 55.3% vs. Chicago this week. Five players have seen 12 or more targets during those three games: Brent Celek (27 for 18/196/2); DeSean Jackson (20 for 8/93/0); Jeremy Maclin (19 for 12/218/1); LeSean McCoy (12 for 9/74/0); and Jason Avant (12 for 10/122/0).
The Cardinals' pass D is ranked 29th in the NFL, averaging 272 net yards allowed per game, with nine passing TDs given up over eight agmes, with six interceptions (tied for 21st in the league) and 20 sacks (tied for 11th) generated to date. Sam Bradford was limited to 23/36 for 233 net yards (four sacks taken), zero TDs and one interception last week; Joe Flacco put up 31/51 for 298 net yards (three sacks taken), zero TDs and one interception vs. the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Cardinals' pass D allows plenty of movement between the 20's, but they are tough to score on when the field is compressed (also, they've given up 11 rushing TDs, tied for worst in the league, so teams tend to run the ball in around the goal line).
John Skelton (20/35 for 222 yards, one TD and zero interceptions passing last week) played well enough to keep the Cardinals close to the Rams, and in overtime Patrick Peterson ran back a punt 99 yards for a game-winning score to put the Cardinals over the top last week, 19-13. Skelton relied on the usual cast of receivers during week nine, with 12 targets for 4/43/1 flowing to Larry Fitzgerald, seven for 5/55/0 going to Andre Roberts, and six for 6/78/0 landing with Early Doucet. As Kevin Kolb looks very iffy for the matchup with his old team as of mid-week - his turf toe injury is still a significant issue for Kolb - it is likely that Skelton will start again for the Cardinals in week 10. So far, he's doubled the team's tally of wins to two, so there isn't much downside for the Cardinals with this situation.
The Eagles handed over 18/32 for 208 net yards passing, two TDs and zero interceptions to Jay Cutler last week, after giving up 18/35 for 182 net yards, one TD and one interception to Tony Romo two weeks ago - the big difference from week nine compared to week eight was that Romo was sacked four times by the Eagles, while Cutler took zero sacks and zero hits during the Chicago victory. The lack of pass pressure on Cutler allowed the Bears to salt away the victory during the fourth quarter on Monday night. Currently the Eagles are ninth in the NFL averaging 211.8 net yards allowed per game, but they have given away a hefty 14 passing TDs over eight contests, with eight interceptions (tied for 13th in the NFL) and 22 sacks (tied for eighth in the NFL) to date.
Skelton did a workmanlike job vs. the Rams, but given that Arizona is 29th in the NFL with 27 sacks allowed through eight games, he'll likely feel some heat from the wounded Eagles on Sunday. This looks like a tough matchup for the visiting Cardinals.
LeSean McCoy did his best to beat the Bears, with 16/71/1 rushing and 5/46/0 receiving to his credit on Monday night - it wasn't McCoy's fault that the Eagles dropped the game 24-30. Over the past three games, McCoy can boast of 74/382/4 rushing with 12 targets for 9/74/0 receiving, while Michael Vick has posted 19/138/0 rushing during that time frame - in this phase of the game it's all good for the Eagles.
The Cardinals' rush D ranks 16th in the NFL through nine weeks, averaging 117.8 yards allowed per game. They are tied for worst in the NFL with 11 rushing TDs allowed, though - these guys are vulnerable in the red zone. St. Louis cranked out 35/150/0 rushing at Arizona last Sunday; Baltimore slammed them with 26/107/3 rushing two weeks ago.
This is a great matchup for McCoy and Vick.
Chris Wells struggled to produce vs. St. Louis, with 10/20/0 rushing and 2/13/0 receiving on the day - after the game, the team reported that he suffered a neck stinger during the contest. However, with his aching knee already affecting Wells' game, we're concerned that his rapid decline from week eight's 22/83/1 rushing performance at hard-nosed Baltimore is a sign of things to come.
The Eagles coughed up 24/133/0 to Matt Forte on Monday Night Football, and Marion Barber punched in a TD with 9/31/1 rushing - all told, the Bears rang up 34/164/1 rushing on the Eagles - the problems with the middle of their defensive front continue to plague the Eagles' rush D. To date, the unit is ranked 23rd in the NFL averaging 124 yards allowed per game, with seven TDs given up so far this year - Dallas managed 10/85/0 rushing at Lincoln Financial Field two weeks ago, while anemic Washington put up just 14/42/1 three contests ago - the Eagles' rush D is heading in the wrong direction entering the second half of the season.
Two under-performing units face off in this game - this looks ugly but about even.
MY PREDICTION:
The Eagles will run all day against the Cardinals with McCoy and Vick. Vick will also have success hitting Maclin, Avant and Celek in the passing game against the 29th worst pass defense. I just dont see the Cards keeping up in this one with a banged up Beanie Wells. Skelton should be on his back most of the day and the Eagles will have a blowout win!
hope your right.. i have them in a big teaser, have them down to 2.5 & that's the one that i'm really nervous about.. it all makes sense, just gotta hope the dream team shows up today against a terrible Zona D. GL
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hope your right.. i have them in a big teaser, have them down to 2.5 & that's the one that i'm really nervous about.. it all makes sense, just gotta hope the dream team shows up today against a terrible Zona D. GL
DeMarco Murray continues to deliver strong results for Dallas, with 22/139/0 rushing vs. Seattle last week, and 55/466/1 rushing with 11 targets for 5/45/0 receiving to his credit over the last three games. He's averaged 8.5 yards per rush during that three game span, friends. Though Felix Jones may try to return to action during week 11, I think that Dallas has settled on Murray as their featured back for the rest of the season. Jones will return to the change-of-pace role that he's filled during past seasons with the Cowboys. Murray has simply been too good for Dallas to give Jones another crack at leading the rushing attack.
The Bills' rush D played down to their usual form last week, giving up 39/126/2 rushing to Shonn Greene and company. Buffalo averages 120.8 rushing yards allowed per game, with ten rushing scores given up through eight contests - they don't scare opposing running backs, friends.
This is a great matchup for Murray to exploit.
Fred Jackson had a productive afternoon against a hard-nosed Jets' D, with 18/82/0 rushing and 3/38/0 receiving to go over 100 yards combined for the seventh time this year (out of eight games played). Over the past three games, he's posted 60/323/1 rushing and 11/159/0 receiving - the yards and receptions have been steady, but he's hit a dry spell when it comes to trips to the end zone.
The Cowboys' rush D ranks 10th in the NFL averaging 102.4 yards allowed per game, with five rushing TDs given up over eight games. Seattle ripped off 30/162/1 rushing at Dallas last week; and Philadelphia punished them for 38/239/2 rushing two weeks ago - the Cowboys' defensive front has really suffered of late - the loss of ILB Sean Lee (dislocated wrist) is part of the picture. However Lee will be playing today!
Tony Romo has thrown five TDs and just one interception over the past three weeks, with 51/90 for 648 yards to his credit during that time span. If he'd had some more help from Dez Bryant last week, Romo would have thrown three TDs during the game (Bryant fumbled a TD reception just an inch or two from the front of the goal line last week) - as things stood, Romo managed 19/31 for 279 yards, two TDs and zero interceptions vs. Seattle during the 23-13 win. Bryant (nine targets for 4/76/0), Jason Witten (seven for 4/71/1) and Miles Austin (three targets for 2/53/0) led the team in receiving, and Laurent Robinson picked up a TD (five targets for 5/32/1) after Austin left the game with yet another hamstring injury. Look for Robinson to play the #2 wide receiver role in the coming weeks as Austin is out two-to-four weeks thanks to his latest hamstring injury.
The Bills' pass D isn't very good this year in terms of yards allowed (an average of 260.4 per game, 25th in the NFL) or pass TDs given up (11 allowed through eight games), but they do generate a lot of turnovers (with 15 interceptions this season, second only to Green Bay's 16 picks). Mark Sanchez managed 20/28 for 222 net yards (one sack taken), one TD and one interception last week; John Beck flopped with 20/33 for 152 net yards (10 sacks taken), zero TDs and two interceptions at Buffalo two weeks ago. Before the Washington game, the Bills had only four sacks to their credit this season, so generally speaking they don't put much pressure on opposing passers through their pass rush, though the secondary is a ball-hawking unit.
Romo's OL has allowed just 15 sacks this year (tied for seventh in the NFL), while the Bills aren't agressive with their pass rush - when Romo has a lot of time to throw the ball, he can pick apart a secondary. Advantage, Dallas.
Ryan Fitzpatrick had a hard time dealing with the top-tier Jets' pass D (no shame there, they lead the NFL with just five passing TDs allowed all year long) - he managed 15/31 for 191 yards, one TD and two interceptions (and his offensive line did a good job with zero sacks allowed) during the 11-27 loss. Steve Johnson led the team in receiving with six targets for 3/84/0 on the day, followed by Fred Jackson (eight for 3/38/0), David Nelson (seven for 4/36/1), and Steve Chandler (three for 3/24/0). Over the past three games, Fitzpatrick has been steady with 57/88 for 697 yards, five TDs and five interceptions thrown - he needs to cut down on the turnovers, but with the Bills at 5-3 nobody is complaining too loudly.
The Cowboys' pass D is a so-so unit this year, averaging 232.5 net yards allowed per game (16th in the NFL), with 11 passing scores given up vs. 10 interceptions (tied for seventh) and 22 sacks (tied for eighth) generated to date. Dallas' secondary looked horrid at Philadelphia two weeks ago (21/28 for 256 net yards, two TDs and zero interceptions allowed, with four DeMarcus Ware sacks), but they bounced back strongly against Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks last week (17/30 for 219 net yards, zero TDs allowed with three interceptions and one sack generated). Some weeks this unit is solid, but others it fails to deliver (thus the 4-4 record that Dallas sports at the season's mid-point).
The Bills' passing attack was held in check by the Jets last week, but the inconsistent Cowboys' unit isn't as strong as the one New York fields - on balance, this one looks about even to me.
MY PREDICTION:
The writeup says it all. Romo will pick apart the Bills secondary and Demarco Murray will pound the rock all day against the Bills. This game could get ugly if Dallas clamps down on D like they are capable of doing.
DALLAS COWBOYS -5.5
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DeMarco Murray continues to deliver strong results for Dallas, with 22/139/0 rushing vs. Seattle last week, and 55/466/1 rushing with 11 targets for 5/45/0 receiving to his credit over the last three games. He's averaged 8.5 yards per rush during that three game span, friends. Though Felix Jones may try to return to action during week 11, I think that Dallas has settled on Murray as their featured back for the rest of the season. Jones will return to the change-of-pace role that he's filled during past seasons with the Cowboys. Murray has simply been too good for Dallas to give Jones another crack at leading the rushing attack.
The Bills' rush D played down to their usual form last week, giving up 39/126/2 rushing to Shonn Greene and company. Buffalo averages 120.8 rushing yards allowed per game, with ten rushing scores given up through eight contests - they don't scare opposing running backs, friends.
This is a great matchup for Murray to exploit.
Fred Jackson had a productive afternoon against a hard-nosed Jets' D, with 18/82/0 rushing and 3/38/0 receiving to go over 100 yards combined for the seventh time this year (out of eight games played). Over the past three games, he's posted 60/323/1 rushing and 11/159/0 receiving - the yards and receptions have been steady, but he's hit a dry spell when it comes to trips to the end zone.
The Cowboys' rush D ranks 10th in the NFL averaging 102.4 yards allowed per game, with five rushing TDs given up over eight games. Seattle ripped off 30/162/1 rushing at Dallas last week; and Philadelphia punished them for 38/239/2 rushing two weeks ago - the Cowboys' defensive front has really suffered of late - the loss of ILB Sean Lee (dislocated wrist) is part of the picture. However Lee will be playing today!
Tony Romo has thrown five TDs and just one interception over the past three weeks, with 51/90 for 648 yards to his credit during that time span. If he'd had some more help from Dez Bryant last week, Romo would have thrown three TDs during the game (Bryant fumbled a TD reception just an inch or two from the front of the goal line last week) - as things stood, Romo managed 19/31 for 279 yards, two TDs and zero interceptions vs. Seattle during the 23-13 win. Bryant (nine targets for 4/76/0), Jason Witten (seven for 4/71/1) and Miles Austin (three targets for 2/53/0) led the team in receiving, and Laurent Robinson picked up a TD (five targets for 5/32/1) after Austin left the game with yet another hamstring injury. Look for Robinson to play the #2 wide receiver role in the coming weeks as Austin is out two-to-four weeks thanks to his latest hamstring injury.
The Bills' pass D isn't very good this year in terms of yards allowed (an average of 260.4 per game, 25th in the NFL) or pass TDs given up (11 allowed through eight games), but they do generate a lot of turnovers (with 15 interceptions this season, second only to Green Bay's 16 picks). Mark Sanchez managed 20/28 for 222 net yards (one sack taken), one TD and one interception last week; John Beck flopped with 20/33 for 152 net yards (10 sacks taken), zero TDs and two interceptions at Buffalo two weeks ago. Before the Washington game, the Bills had only four sacks to their credit this season, so generally speaking they don't put much pressure on opposing passers through their pass rush, though the secondary is a ball-hawking unit.
Romo's OL has allowed just 15 sacks this year (tied for seventh in the NFL), while the Bills aren't agressive with their pass rush - when Romo has a lot of time to throw the ball, he can pick apart a secondary. Advantage, Dallas.
Ryan Fitzpatrick had a hard time dealing with the top-tier Jets' pass D (no shame there, they lead the NFL with just five passing TDs allowed all year long) - he managed 15/31 for 191 yards, one TD and two interceptions (and his offensive line did a good job with zero sacks allowed) during the 11-27 loss. Steve Johnson led the team in receiving with six targets for 3/84/0 on the day, followed by Fred Jackson (eight for 3/38/0), David Nelson (seven for 4/36/1), and Steve Chandler (three for 3/24/0). Over the past three games, Fitzpatrick has been steady with 57/88 for 697 yards, five TDs and five interceptions thrown - he needs to cut down on the turnovers, but with the Bills at 5-3 nobody is complaining too loudly.
The Cowboys' pass D is a so-so unit this year, averaging 232.5 net yards allowed per game (16th in the NFL), with 11 passing scores given up vs. 10 interceptions (tied for seventh) and 22 sacks (tied for eighth) generated to date. Dallas' secondary looked horrid at Philadelphia two weeks ago (21/28 for 256 net yards, two TDs and zero interceptions allowed, with four DeMarcus Ware sacks), but they bounced back strongly against Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks last week (17/30 for 219 net yards, zero TDs allowed with three interceptions and one sack generated). Some weeks this unit is solid, but others it fails to deliver (thus the 4-4 record that Dallas sports at the season's mid-point).
The Bills' passing attack was held in check by the Jets last week, but the inconsistent Cowboys' unit isn't as strong as the one New York fields - on balance, this one looks about even to me.
MY PREDICTION:
The writeup says it all. Romo will pick apart the Bills secondary and Demarco Murray will pound the rock all day against the Bills. This game could get ugly if Dallas clamps down on D like they are capable of doing.
The Buccaneers had made cutting down on interceptions a focus for Josh Freeman during the bye week (they decided to include more roll-outs in the game plan to emphasize his strength throwing on the run), and so far the change is working out for Tampa. Last week at New Orleans he posted 27/37 for 281 net yards, took zero sacks, and threw one TD and zero interceptions. Compare that result to week seven in London, when Freeman threw four interceptions and took a 14-yard sack (29/51 for 264 yards, two TDs and four interceptions was his full day's work). Preston Parker led the team in receiving vs. the Saints, with four targets for 3/56/0; Mike Williams was second with eight for 6/46/0; Dezmon Briscoe posted two for 1/46/0; Kregg Lumpkin saw six for 4/31/0; and Kellen Winslow snagged 4/29/1 out of six chances last week. All told, nine different Buccaneers caught passes at New Orleans - Freeman really spread the wealth last week.
The Texans' pass D is second in the NFL, averaging 182.6 net yards allowed per game, with 10 pass TDs allowed balanced by 11 interceptions (tied for fifth in the NFL) and 24 sacks (tied for fourth) generated to date. Cleveland's Colt McCoy was limited to 14/22 for 128 net yards (four sacks taken, with eight total QB hits generated by Houston), one TD and one interception last week, while Blaine Gabbert and company could only eke out 10/32 for 90 net yards, one TD and two interceptions at Houston two weeks ago.
Matt Schaub hasn't had to throw the ball much over the last three weeks (not nearly as much as the Texans used to throw the ball earlier in the year): that's because the tandem of Arian Foster and Ben Tate have combined for 612 yards rushing over the last three games (over 200 yards rushing per game on average!). He's passed the ball 76 times for 48 completions, yielding 640 yards, three TDs and one interception over the past three weeks (while Andre Johnson has been sidelined due to a hamstring injury/surgery). Last week vs. Cleveland he put the ball up just 23 times (vs 40 rushes), with 14/23 for 119 net yards, zero TDs and one interception passing, with 3/0/1 rushing to his credit. With so few passes being distributed, Owen Daniels (four for 3/32/0), Jacoby Jones (four for 2/28/0), Joel Dreesen (two for 2/27/0) and Foster (seven for 5/26/0) all had modest days as receivers last week.
The Buccaneers' pass D is among the league's most generous, with an average of 266.5 net yards allowed per game (28th in the NFL), with a hefty 13 passing TDs given up to date vs. eight interceptions (13th in the NFL) and just 12 sacks (31st) generated so far this year. The team lost key DT Gerald McCoy to a torn biceps tendon last week - he's scheduled for surgery to repair his arm on Wednesday and his rehab will take six months. The defensive front is being juggled coming into this game, which won't help the already weak pass rush, with veteran DT John McCargo signed this week. Drew Brees tore up the Buccaneers for 27/36 yielding 258 net yards (zero sacks) last week, and threw two TDs vs. one interceptions during the 27-16 win over Tampa.
LeGarette Blount returned to action for the Buccaneers last week, posting 13/72/0 rushing and 2/8/0 receiving as the lead back vs. New Orleans. Kregg Lumpkin played in the third-down/change-of-pace role, with 2/7/0 rushing and 4/31/0 receiving vs. the Saints, and that looks to be the team's plan for the second half of the season given the injuries that have sidelined other players during the first half of the season. Blount averaged 5.5 yards per carry with a long of 27 - he looks ready to go for the stretch run.
The Texans' rush D is ranked fourth in the NFL averaging just 91.4 yards allowed per game, with six rushing TDs handed out over nine games. Clevelands' reserves were held to 21/44/0 rushing last week; Maurice Jones-Drew and company put up 25/84/1 rushing at Houston back in week eight.
While Andre Johnson has been sidelined due to a hamstring injury/surgery, the Texans have discovered a new facet to their offense - a true two-back, power-running game that is steamrolling over opposing defenses. Over the last three weeks, Arian Foster (77/351/4 rushing with 16 targets for 11/157/1 receiving) and Ben Tate (32/261/1 rushing) have combined for 612 yards rushing and five TDs. To put that accomplishment in perspective, consider that the Titans have 560 yards rushing as a team this year. As Cleveland can attest, the combination of Foster (19/124/1 rushing last week) and Tate (12/115/1) is very difficult to defend - heck, even Matt Schaub has been running in TDs of late, with one rushing score in each of the last two games. This attack is stampeding over opposing defenses like a herd of Texas Longhorns right now, friends.
The Buccaneers have dropped two straight games, and their rush D has been a major contributor to the losing streak - New Orleans cranked out 28/195/1 rushing last week vs. Tampa, and Chicago whacked them for 33/177/2 rushing in London during week seven. Right now, this defensive front isn't slowing anybody down - they are even worse than their 26th-place ranking would indicate (averaging 132.4 rushing yards allowed per game, with eight rushing scores given up over eight games). The team lost key DT Gerald McCoy to a torn biceps tendon last week - he's scheduled for surgery to repair his arm on Wednesday and his rehab will take six months. The (already vulnerable) defensive front is being juggled coming into this game, with veteran DT John McCargo signed this week.
MY PREDICTION:
The return of Blount to the lineup for the Bucs is huge. They can play ball control offense and keep the potent Texans attack off the field. The past several weeks Houston has played below average competition which has padded all their stats. Now on the road against a team that has a running game and a QB who has re found his form, they will struggle. Tampa should not be getting 3.5 in this game and that is why I will be on the Bucs at home who should pull off an upset.
TAMPA BAY BUCS +3.5
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The Buccaneers had made cutting down on interceptions a focus for Josh Freeman during the bye week (they decided to include more roll-outs in the game plan to emphasize his strength throwing on the run), and so far the change is working out for Tampa. Last week at New Orleans he posted 27/37 for 281 net yards, took zero sacks, and threw one TD and zero interceptions. Compare that result to week seven in London, when Freeman threw four interceptions and took a 14-yard sack (29/51 for 264 yards, two TDs and four interceptions was his full day's work). Preston Parker led the team in receiving vs. the Saints, with four targets for 3/56/0; Mike Williams was second with eight for 6/46/0; Dezmon Briscoe posted two for 1/46/0; Kregg Lumpkin saw six for 4/31/0; and Kellen Winslow snagged 4/29/1 out of six chances last week. All told, nine different Buccaneers caught passes at New Orleans - Freeman really spread the wealth last week.
The Texans' pass D is second in the NFL, averaging 182.6 net yards allowed per game, with 10 pass TDs allowed balanced by 11 interceptions (tied for fifth in the NFL) and 24 sacks (tied for fourth) generated to date. Cleveland's Colt McCoy was limited to 14/22 for 128 net yards (four sacks taken, with eight total QB hits generated by Houston), one TD and one interception last week, while Blaine Gabbert and company could only eke out 10/32 for 90 net yards, one TD and two interceptions at Houston two weeks ago.
Matt Schaub hasn't had to throw the ball much over the last three weeks (not nearly as much as the Texans used to throw the ball earlier in the year): that's because the tandem of Arian Foster and Ben Tate have combined for 612 yards rushing over the last three games (over 200 yards rushing per game on average!). He's passed the ball 76 times for 48 completions, yielding 640 yards, three TDs and one interception over the past three weeks (while Andre Johnson has been sidelined due to a hamstring injury/surgery). Last week vs. Cleveland he put the ball up just 23 times (vs 40 rushes), with 14/23 for 119 net yards, zero TDs and one interception passing, with 3/0/1 rushing to his credit. With so few passes being distributed, Owen Daniels (four for 3/32/0), Jacoby Jones (four for 2/28/0), Joel Dreesen (two for 2/27/0) and Foster (seven for 5/26/0) all had modest days as receivers last week.
The Buccaneers' pass D is among the league's most generous, with an average of 266.5 net yards allowed per game (28th in the NFL), with a hefty 13 passing TDs given up to date vs. eight interceptions (13th in the NFL) and just 12 sacks (31st) generated so far this year. The team lost key DT Gerald McCoy to a torn biceps tendon last week - he's scheduled for surgery to repair his arm on Wednesday and his rehab will take six months. The defensive front is being juggled coming into this game, which won't help the already weak pass rush, with veteran DT John McCargo signed this week. Drew Brees tore up the Buccaneers for 27/36 yielding 258 net yards (zero sacks) last week, and threw two TDs vs. one interceptions during the 27-16 win over Tampa.
LeGarette Blount returned to action for the Buccaneers last week, posting 13/72/0 rushing and 2/8/0 receiving as the lead back vs. New Orleans. Kregg Lumpkin played in the third-down/change-of-pace role, with 2/7/0 rushing and 4/31/0 receiving vs. the Saints, and that looks to be the team's plan for the second half of the season given the injuries that have sidelined other players during the first half of the season. Blount averaged 5.5 yards per carry with a long of 27 - he looks ready to go for the stretch run.
The Texans' rush D is ranked fourth in the NFL averaging just 91.4 yards allowed per game, with six rushing TDs handed out over nine games. Clevelands' reserves were held to 21/44/0 rushing last week; Maurice Jones-Drew and company put up 25/84/1 rushing at Houston back in week eight.
While Andre Johnson has been sidelined due to a hamstring injury/surgery, the Texans have discovered a new facet to their offense - a true two-back, power-running game that is steamrolling over opposing defenses. Over the last three weeks, Arian Foster (77/351/4 rushing with 16 targets for 11/157/1 receiving) and Ben Tate (32/261/1 rushing) have combined for 612 yards rushing and five TDs. To put that accomplishment in perspective, consider that the Titans have 560 yards rushing as a team this year. As Cleveland can attest, the combination of Foster (19/124/1 rushing last week) and Tate (12/115/1) is very difficult to defend - heck, even Matt Schaub has been running in TDs of late, with one rushing score in each of the last two games. This attack is stampeding over opposing defenses like a herd of Texas Longhorns right now, friends.
The Buccaneers have dropped two straight games, and their rush D has been a major contributor to the losing streak - New Orleans cranked out 28/195/1 rushing last week vs. Tampa, and Chicago whacked them for 33/177/2 rushing in London during week seven. Right now, this defensive front isn't slowing anybody down - they are even worse than their 26th-place ranking would indicate (averaging 132.4 rushing yards allowed per game, with eight rushing scores given up over eight games). The team lost key DT Gerald McCoy to a torn biceps tendon last week - he's scheduled for surgery to repair his arm on Wednesday and his rehab will take six months. The (already vulnerable) defensive front is being juggled coming into this game, with veteran DT John McCargo signed this week.
MY PREDICTION:
The return of Blount to the lineup for the Bucs is huge. They can play ball control offense and keep the potent Texans attack off the field. The past several weeks Houston has played below average competition which has padded all their stats. Now on the road against a team that has a running game and a QB who has re found his form, they will struggle. Tampa should not be getting 3.5 in this game and that is why I will be on the Bucs at home who should pull off an upset.
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