Posted:
#101
TEBOW beats the STEELERS 
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**NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND PLAYS***
Posted:
#102
Also just found out of the past 21 years of the wildcard round, there has been only 2 times where all 4 favorites won SU, thats 2-19 past 21 years...........that means the odds are against all 4 favorites winning their games SU.............at least one dog will win SU this weekend.................
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Posted:
#104
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
Also just found out of the past 21 years of the wildcard round, there has been only 2 times where all 4 favorites won SU, thats 2-19 past 21 years...........that means the odds are against all 4 favorites winning their games SU.............at least one dog will win SU this weekend.................
Also just found out of the past 21 years of the wildcard round, there has been only 2 times where all 4 favorites won SU, thats 2-19 past 21 years...........that means the odds are against all 4 favorites winning their games SU.............at least one dog will win SU this weekend.................
...Falcons ML +140 
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Posted:
#105
Found some systems for the playoffs & one has me 
Play on any team that scored 500 or more points in the regular season when playing in their 1st playoff game the same season............9-4 ATS since 1961.......69%
Play on: Saints, Packers & Patriots in their 1st playoff game
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Play on a playoff teams that havent been in the playoffs at least 3 or more years..............19-12 ATS (wildcard round) since 1989................
Play on: Lions & Texans
Worst thing will happen is a split imo with the Lions & Texans
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Posted:
#106
^^^^^^^^^^
Add the Broncos to the above system of teams not having been to the playoffs in 3 or more years.....................
Play on any playoff team in the wildcard round if they didnt cover the spread in their last 2 regular season games...............21-13 ATS since 1984..............
Play on: Broncos
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Posted:
#108
Play the Under in a wildcard game if the road team beat a division opponent in their last regular season game..............10-3 Under since 2004...............71%
Play: Steelers/Broncos Under 34.5, Giants/Falcons Under 47
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Posted:
#111
Quote Originally Posted by TomE:
Well, first of all, I agree with your conclusion to pick the Saints at home.
The entire spin on statistics and probabilities I think is completely irrelevant because the Saints are not a roulette wheel or a craps table. They are a very good team with an absolutely outstanding QB and very good supporting cast, who play especially inspired at home. Also, their home happens to be a dome where sound is reverberated and seemingly amplified, and unfortunately for the road team, that sound and noise occurs most when the away team's offense is trying to work....very bad news for the road team. It's an unfair advantage for the home team! If you want to use a roulette wheel as some kind of pertinent example, it would then have to be modified to a RIGGED roulette wheel where the advantage is extreme for the home team.
Take a good team, put them at home where they play their best, make that home venue a huge advantage in terms of the 12th man factor....and what you have is a team that pretty much kicks ass at home all year. Add to that mix that they UP their play another notch or two when they are playing on Prime Time with the whole world watching, and then you have blowout after Prime Time blowout as well.
Handicapping is not like playing craps or roulette. It's taking advantage of known factors and applying them when the situation warrants. There are no probabilities to calculate. The smart move is go WITH the advantage, and AVOID the disadvantage!
BOL
Well, first of all, I agree with your conclusion to pick the Saints at home.
The entire spin on statistics and probabilities I think is completely irrelevant because the Saints are not a roulette wheel or a craps table. They are a very good team with an absolutely outstanding QB and very good supporting cast, who play especially inspired at home. Also, their home happens to be a dome where sound is reverberated and seemingly amplified, and unfortunately for the road team, that sound and noise occurs most when the away team's offense is trying to work....very bad news for the road team. It's an unfair advantage for the home team! If you want to use a roulette wheel as some kind of pertinent example, it would then have to be modified to a RIGGED roulette wheel where the advantage is extreme for the home team.
Take a good team, put them at home where they play their best, make that home venue a huge advantage in terms of the 12th man factor....and what you have is a team that pretty much kicks ass at home all year. Add to that mix that they UP their play another notch or two when they are playing on Prime Time with the whole world watching, and then you have blowout after Prime Time blowout as well.
Handicapping is not like playing craps or roulette. It's taking advantage of known factors and applying them when the situation warrants. There are no probabilities to calculate. The smart move is go WITH the advantage, and AVOID the disadvantage!
BOL
You missed my point with the Roulette wheel comparison... it had nothing to do with the saints and everything to do with the statistics... I was saying that by saying the saints will lose ATS because they have already won 8 in a row at home is stupid... it is like saying that because the wheel hit black 8 times in a row, it is more likely to hit red on the next spin... when in reality it has the same odds to hit black as every other spin.... the saints have the same odds of winning, losings and pushing ATS every game... either they will win, push, or lose... all of the previous games had not bearing on the outcome of this game statistically speaking.... this has nothing to do with my opinion on if they will cover
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Posted:
#114
Quote Originally Posted by BuggyL:
Are you on drugs? Tebow beats the Steelers? Steelers win by 14-17 points. Denver might not score. GL with the picks.
Are you on drugs? Tebow beats the Steelers? Steelers win by 14-17 points. Denver might not score. GL with the picks.
Saints - 10.5
NYG. -3
Hou. -3
Pitt. -8
im getting all warm & fuzzy inside knowing clowns like you will be betting every favorite on the board 
I cant wait until the weekend....................Did I mention the superbowl losers are a nice 5-13-2 ATS the following year in their 1st playoff game since 1978...........
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Posted:
#116
[Quote: Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys] Forgot to mention that I love seeing everyone on the Saints........I think im gonna be the only guy on the Lions +10.5 just like everyone was on the Saints last year at Seattle..................not saying the Saints will lose, they will probably win but I dont see them covering................
I know I'm one of your worst "haters" but I have to agree with this play this week. At least one of these dogs for sure will COVER this week and it might as well be the biggest spread in with LIONS.
Saints have been on an unbelievable roll and it has to slow down some time. Lions D is capable enough to slow NO down a little bit. Lions with Stafford heaving it to MEGATRON is indefensible
And yes, it is eerily reminiscent of Saints/Seahawks game last year, that feeling of "UPSET"
Also, G-Men on a roll and they should undoubtedly "ROLL" Falcons. That should be your HUGE play, G-Men squash weak road team Atlanta
Good luck this week, I BELIEVE
I know I'm one of your worst "haters" but I have to agree with this play this week. At least one of these dogs for sure will COVER this week and it might as well be the biggest spread in with LIONS.
Saints have been on an unbelievable roll and it has to slow down some time. Lions D is capable enough to slow NO down a little bit. Lions with Stafford heaving it to MEGATRON is indefensible
And yes, it is eerily reminiscent of Saints/Seahawks game last year, that feeling of "UPSET"
Also, G-Men on a roll and they should undoubtedly "ROLL" Falcons. That should be your HUGE play, G-Men squash weak road team Atlanta
Good luck this week, I BELIEVE
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Posted:
#118
At least one of the #6 seeds have advanced to the 2nd round past 3 years.............both #6 seeds advanced in 2008 & 2010..........only one in 2009............so with that said, looks like the Falcons & Bengals have a shot...............
I will take the Falcons & go against the Bengals.................
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Posted:
#119
Damn, this clown is on the lions... perhaps it means salvation to me as I was seriously thinking about this play before I, of course, saw this monopoly money guy with one of his classics, some of the only few trends that actually do work on covers.com is to FADE this guy.
I still have almost the entire week to think about it but this is definitely a heart-crush to see this person backing the lions, he's really a joke, one of the best fade materials you could ever find around here, anytime you're on the same side of primetimeboys, you seriously have to consider a hedge, or just think it twice if you haven't pulled the trigger yet, good luck people.
I still have almost the entire week to think about it but this is definitely a heart-crush to see this person backing the lions, he's really a joke, one of the best fade materials you could ever find around here, anytime you're on the same side of primetimeboys, you seriously have to consider a hedge, or just think it twice if you haven't pulled the trigger yet, good luck people.
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Posted:
#121
prime go kill yourself!!!! u r a joke..one of the worst cappers here on this site....you and your lame ass trends.... trends r made to b broken dump truck... i so cant wait to come back in here after the games this weekend to bash the shit out of your monopoly playing ass. GO TO JAIL DIRECTLY TO JAIL... DONT PASS GO AND I KNOW YOU WONT COLLECT YOUR 200$ CUZ YOUR GONNA LOSE YOUR ASS DUMP TRUCK......
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Posted:
#122
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
THERE YOU GO CONTRADICTING YOUR SELF AGAIN.. YOU DO IT ALL THE FUCKIN TIME... ONE OF YOUR FIRST POST IN THIS LAME ASS THREAD YOU SAID TEBOW WILL BEAT STEELERS STRAIGHT UP AND NOW YOUR SAYING YOU SAID IT FOR A JOKE???? TO GET PEOPLE RUFFLED UP??? CMON MAN!!!!! YOU THROW THAT STUPID SHIT OUT THERE CUZ YOU DONT HAVE A FUCKIN CLUE WHAT U R DOING.. YOU POST THAT SHIT SO YOU CAN GET PEOPLE IN HERE TO TELL YOU HOW FUCKIN DUMB YOU ARE ..YOU R CLUELESS AND A FUCKIN TOAD... GO FUCK YOUR SELF AND PLEASE GO PLAY ON THE FREEWAY SO WE NO LONGER HAVE TO C YOUR NAME IN COVERS AGAIN.. THANK YOU...Do I think the Broncos win this game? No but I did get a rile out of a lot of people after I said they would...........if I bet this game, it will be on the Broncos +8 for a small wager but waiting on the result of the Lions bet.
I do agree that Tebow will have a tough time against the Steelers defense............the Broncos & Tebow have gotten beat the last 3 weeks of the season & I just cant see Tebow getting clocked again..........how do I see it...........
I see Tebow marching hot team down the field on the last drive of the game to tie the game up or take the lead with a td but end up short & lose by 3 to 6 points............
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Betting against the Saint at home.
Posted:
#125
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
I really like one play on Saturday & will let my roll ride on this game..............
Saints pass D ranked 30th though that could be misleading because teams are usually behind and throwing alot.I believe i will have to take the Lions and 11.If they can get a modicum of yards on the ground and put some pressure on Breezy they can cover.GL to us.
I really like one play on Saturday & will let my roll ride on this game..............
Lions +10.5 (-110) $3,850 to win $3,500
Lions havent been to the playoffs in forever & I wont be surprised if the Lions win this game SU...........sure the Saints are playing awesome football winning & covering 8 straight games but the streak stops with this game.................
The Lions lost a high scoring game to the Packers but dont take anything away from Matt Flynn who is the best back up qb in football imo. The guy almost beat the Patriots last season on Sunday night losing by 3............Flynn threw 6 td passes in one game, something Rodgers has not done................
That game was a tune up for the Lions as they know they will be in a shootout & we should see some fireworks in New Orleans.............I knew the Falcons didnt want to play the Saints again but didnt think it would happen like this................
The Saints are clicking on all cylinders scoring over 40 points in their last 3 games of the season & will be looking to advance into the 2nd round.................
Will have a play on Sunday if the Lions come through for me..............
Recommended plays:
Texans -3 (+100)
Broncos +7.5 (-110)
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