NFL Week Three Ponderings

Been a frustrating first two weeks of the season. I'm 2-4 on the year, but would be 4-2 if the Bears hadn't blown a 17-6 4th quarter lead against the Vikings in Week One, and if the Cardinals hadn't blown a 27-3 4th quarter lead against the Panthers in Week Two! But as Dandy Don Meredith once said, "If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a merry Christmas." Moving on ......

Thursday, Sept. 18th

BILLS -11' vs. Dolphins - Miami hasn't won in Buffalo since 2016, and has lost 13 of the last 14 meetings. Their defense is a sieve, having allowed scores on 13 of opponents' 15 possessions (not counting kneel downs). They also have a long injury list, and are especially banged up along the offensive line and defensive backfield. Buffalo will be without DT Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano, and those are significant absences, but their Josh Allen led offense is healthy and seemingly unstoppable vs. a defense that can't stop a nosebleed. BUT, this is the NFL where anything can happen. I'd rather have a root canal than lay double digits in this league, so even though it feels like the Bills should win by at least two TDs, I'm letting this one go. 

@Boisestateand8

 Bills last few years have also been horrible laying double digits. As bad as Miami is, it's Thursday and its easy to see the Bills giving a ho hum lazy effort. 

I can actually see this game easily going under the total. Its a pretty high total and if the offenses are lazy its easy to see this game going 27-17 Bills

@Yanasaur

Yeah, under Sean McDermott the Bills are 8-13-2 ATS as double digit chalk, including 1-10 ATS in their last 11 tries, and it's a short week. But they've also scored at least 30 points in seven of the last eight meetings in Buffalo, and against that defense it looks like more of the same. The question is can Miami score 20 or better? I think they'll need to if they're gonna stay within the number. Actually, the best bet here might be to take the Bills OVER their team total, but I'm certainly not an authority on totals.

You are not going to see a lazy effort out of the Bills tonight. 

The mostly poor performance and incredibly close call in their home opener just eleven days ago made sure of that.

Anyone remember that farce of an NFL game that was played in Buffalo four years ago on a Monday night when the Bills hosted the Patriots? The Patriots pulled off a significant 14-10 upset despite starter Mac Jones attempting just 3 passes! Josh Allen and the Bills pushed forward with an attempt at a passing game, but the wailing winds just wouldn't allow it.  Since that night, the Bills are 6-0 in their next regular season home game if their previous regular season home game was a loss OR a narrow win by 3 points or less. The margins of victory were 17, 8, 12, 26, 9, and 26 points. They covered the spread in 5 of those wins. The only miss was a 20-12 win over the Jets, a home game that was played a whole month after their 33-30 overtime home loss to the Vikings in 2022.

And the Bills won by one little point just eleven days ago after a furious rally in the final four minutes bailed them out of an unimpressive 56 minutes that preceded it. I'll be shocked if I see a nonchalant effort from the Bills tonight. Given how these Bills over the last few years seem to react at home after having been beaten or seriously threatened in their previous home game, I'd say the Bills won't be fooling around with these dysfunctional Dolphins.

I'm not letting it go. I'm laying the 11 as well as using the Bills in all 5 of my Circa Survivor entries and for my Grandissimo entry that I am sharing with a friend who suggested entering that new contest.

Miami's Season is on the line and they keep it close and or pull off the upset!

@MrBator

 BOL! It's probably a winner. Hopefully they lock the back door.  I'm on Seattle for my eliminator pick. 

And THIS is why I never lay double digits in the NFL! 

The oddsmakers made a fool out of me by lowering the line (in certain sportsbooks anyway) to -11, and that was enough to luyre me in and lay claim to my $8,400. Oh well. Wrong side all the way despite ultimately losing by one point. I should feel fortunate that the Bills benefitted from a roughing the kicker call, because without that this could easily have ended 24-21 in favor of the Dolphins.