All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

NFL WEEK 8 PLAYS

...

Participants:

Posts: 256

rr207

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 3743

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 12:30 AM ET #101

Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Decided that I would not stop betting on the sport I absolutely love, the NFL...........we still have 10 weeks of regular season & 4 weeks of playoffs...........thats 14 weeks in all & I will win back the original $30,000 I have lost over the past several weeks...............had the roll up to $59k & lost to due to no money management..............

Time to start using some money management............it might not be exactly how others deem the way to use money management, but its the way I will do it................roll is at $30,000................just trying to win my $30k back, anything above that will be a bonus................

1st play: Falcons +2.5 (-110) $3,300 to win $3,000

I get an undefeated team coming off a bye week & im getting points?? Okay, thank you very much!

2nd play: Miami +2.5 (-110) $1,100 to win $1,000

Miami off the bye is playing a Jets team that should have beaten the Patriots but got deflated in an overtime game.............the Jets come back to reality when the Dolphins come to town & beat them...............I will have a dime on the Dolphins ML as well.................

More plays to come once all the spreads & ML's are out..................

I am leaning that way with the falcons. But that's the dumbest fucking reasoning. Good luck this week.

vcuminh

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 452

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 1:06 AM ET #102

This is the FREAKING NFL. The hardest sport to handicap in my opinion. Sure, teams that suck on paper appear to be GARBAGE but there is a lot of parody and every week is different.

Vegas knows we are all suckers for looking at teams that performed the previous week. We are so in awe of a team that won 30+ points this week only to be jaw droppingly shocked when they get their lids blown out the week after. Teams that ought to be blown out and look horrific on paper actually show up and play. Why?? because Vegas set the lines trapping us to believe what happened last week ought to happen this week. When the line seems too good to be true...well its too good to be true.

What I am saying is that we can't always base our analysis on "Andy Reid's" bye week records and mumbo jumbo like that. These are trends and trends only. Who knows, we may have been lucky with Reid and this crazy ATS record but might it only be coincidence? Once again... trends. Every game and every week is independent of each other.

IMHO, you either bet Eagles -2.5 or Atl ML. This is truly a field goal game but the line just wont budge unless you pay the extra vig. Same goes with The FINS. Since the FINS look horrible on paper then why aren't they 7 or 10 point dogs instead only 2.5. I am guessing the line makers think they aren't THAT bad. The JETS are a public team, household name, all the goods. but The FINS is where the smart money lies.

GL everyone

anklbrkr24

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 74

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 1:58 AM ET #103

1st play: Falcons +2.5 (-110) $3,300 to win $3,000

I get an undefeated team coming off a bye week & im getting points?? Okay, thank you very much!

2nd play: Miami +2.5 (-110) $1,100 to win $1,000

More plays to come once all the spreads & ML's are out..................

Prime - your not afraid that eagles are 13-0 coming off a bye?

shivaseven

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 460

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 1:58 AM ET #104

PTB: I know you love to play teasers so here is a spot:

On Thursday Night Football home teams off of a SUP win and favored by 6 points or more are 23-0 SUP and ATS 17-5-1. So MINNY in a two team 6.0 pointer would have covered their end of the teaser all 23 times. It's hard to ignore these numbers.

LuvParlays

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 2232

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 10:12 AM ET #105

Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Adding:

Miami ML (+120) $1,000 to win $1,200

Panthers +7.5 (-110) $1,100 to win $1,000

Panthers ML (+315) $1,000 to win $3,150

Cowboys ML (-101) $1,010 to win $1,000

Kinda surprised you like the Cowboys. Many times I seen you against them, and I think you should be against them here. They suck the big one.

tmpeus78

Hall of Fame

Joined: Apr, 2008

Posts: 26206

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 11:45 AM ET #106

PrimeTimeBoys

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 13343

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 11:57 AM ET #107

Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven:

PTB: I know you love to play teasers so here is a spot:

On Thursday Night Football home teams off of a SUP win and favored by 6 points or more are 23-0 SUP and ATS 17-5-1. So MINNY in a two team 6.0 pointer would have covered their end of the teaser all 23 times. It's hard to ignore these numbers.

Nice system Shiva, you're a very resourceful gambler............keep them coming. I am looking into playing a 3 team 10 point teaser with the Vikings in there...........thank you sir..............

PrimeTimeBoys

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 13343

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 11:59 AM ET #108

Quote Originally Posted by vcuminh:

This is the FREAKING NFL. The hardest sport to handicap in my opinion. Sure, teams that suck on paper appear to be GARBAGE but there is a lot of parody and every week is different.

Vegas knows we are all suckers for looking at teams that performed the previous week. We are so in awe of a team that won 30+ points this week only to be jaw droppingly shocked when they get their lids blown out the week after. Teams that ought to be blown out and look horrific on paper actually show up and play. Why?? because Vegas set the lines trapping us to believe what happened last week ought to happen this week. When the line seems too good to be true...well its too good to be true.

What I am saying is that we can't always base our analysis on "Andy Reid's" bye week records and mumbo jumbo like that. These are trends and trends only. Who knows, we may have been lucky with Reid and this crazy ATS record but might it only be coincidence? Once again... trends. Every game and every week is independent of each other.

IMHO, you either bet Eagles -2.5 or Atl ML. This is truly a field goal game but the line just wont budge unless you pay the extra vig. Same goes with The FINS. Since the FINS look horrible on paper then why aren't they 7 or 10 point dogs instead only 2.5. I am guessing the line makers think they aren't THAT bad. The JETS are a public team, household name, all the goods. but The FINS is where the smart money lies.

GL everyone

You my friend understand the psychology of Vegas odds makers & you will prosper................

PrimeTimeBoys

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 13343

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 12:01 PM ET #109

Quote Originally Posted by anklbrkr24:

Prime - your not afraid that eagles are 13-0 coming off a bye?

Yes I am & I may be buying back my wager & lose the juice...........I'm waiting for the line to go down to Eagles -1 or Pk, hopefully.................maybe I can get lucky & have the Eagles win by 1 or 2 points.

PrimeTimeBoys

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 13343

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 12:06 PM ET #110

Quote Originally Posted by LuvParlays:

Kinda surprised you like the Cowboys. Many times I seen you against them, and I think you should be against them here. They suck the big one.

I usually have a pretty good read on Dallas & IMO, they will win this game. Yes Dallas is a public team but you gotta know when to take them & I think this is a great spot.............

mdrsports31

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 500

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 1:27 PM ET #111

Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

I usually have a pretty good read on Dallas & IMO, they will win this game. Yes Dallas is a public team but you gotta know when to take them & I think this is a great spot.............

i feel so bad for you....

SmurfTurfJL

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 55

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 3:40 PM ET #112

crazy1464

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2005

Posts: 6783

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 10:15 PM ET #113

eagles win this game

IgetMoney101

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 6868

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 10:47 PM ET #114

Cowboys had this game circled on their calendar. Jerry wants to beat ny for the first time in that stadium. Last time they played ny in Dallas Romo could have iced the game but over threw a wide open Austin.

PrimeTimeBoys

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 13343

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 11:03 PM ET #115

Quote Originally Posted by IgetMoney101:

Cowboys had this game circled on their calendar. Jerry wants to beat ny for the first time in that stadium. Last time they played ny in Dallas Romo could have iced the game but over threw a wide open Austin.

Yes sir.................

Adding:

Rams +7 (-110) $550 to win $500

Rams ML (+260) $500 to win $1,300

drum67

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 2357

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 11:45 PM ET #116

Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Do you think I care whether you care? If I cared what people cared about on here, I would have a nervous break down...........

I suggest if your hating, you should be fading..........

drum67

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 2357

Posted: Oct. 24, 2012 - 11:46 PM ET #117

No Hate here. I just think your posts are weird. That is all.

Chauster

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 10083

Posted: Oct. 25, 2012 - 12:00 AM ET #118

Just questions on teasers payout for 3 teams and 4 teams. I am getting these payouts on my local book for 3 team teasers+6pts: $100 pays $170, 3 team teasers+6.5pts: $100 pays $160, 4 team teasers+6pts: $100 pays $300 and 4 team teasers+6.5pts: $100 pays $250. Are these normal payouts or am I getting rip off with these payouts? Perhaps PTB u could tell me since u seem like u do bet teasers a lot.

PrimeTimeBoys

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 13343

Posted: Oct. 25, 2012 - 12:52 AM ET #119

Quote Originally Posted by Chauster:

Your local isnt cheating you............in fact, he is giving you better odds than most offshore books give out on the teasers you posted above.............you are making out compared to what most books pay out...............good luck with your teasers.....................

aaustinova67

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2011

Posts: 1759

Posted: Oct. 25, 2012 - 1:03 AM ET #120

careful with the Dolphins.......

Sanchez broke up with that spanish chick

no more "box distractions" coming into his head before the snap

Miami always plays the Jets tough but Im on the Jets this week brother.

thanks for the Steelers pick last week. good to see you back in action!

aaustinova67

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2011

Posts: 1759

Posted: Oct. 25, 2012 - 1:06 AM ET #121

careful with the Falcons

The Eagles are wearing tshirts that say "IT IS TIME"

or some shit like that.

they seem determined to take the ballsack out of their mouths and play some damn football.

p.s. i love matt ryan but the Falcons are not the best team in the NFL jsut cuase theyre undefeated.

p.p.s Vick is a dog hater

p.p.s.s What you think about Saints/Broncos ??

PrimeTimeBoys

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 13343

Posted: Oct. 25, 2012 - 2:06 AM ET #122

Quote Originally Posted by aaustinova67:

careful with the Dolphins.......

Sanchez broke up with that spanish chick

no more "box distractions" coming into his head before the snap

Miami always plays the Jets tough but Im on the Jets this week brother.

thanks for the Steelers pick last week. good to see you back in action!

Correct me if im wrong, but Rex Ryan has never beaten the Dolphins twice in the same season............also, the Jets have covered 3 straight games, giving it their all vs Houston which they should have won............they destroyed the Colts & played their hearts out in New England............this is a terrible spot for the Jets & having Miami coming off the bye week is what the doctor ordered for the Dolphins...........

The Dolphins should have won the 1st time these two played each other but revenge is sweet.................

PrimeTimeBoys

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 13343

Posted: Oct. 25, 2012 - 2:10 AM ET #123

Quote Originally Posted by aaustinova67:

careful with the Falcons

The Eagles are wearing tshirts that say "IT IS TIME"

or some shit like that.

they seem determined to take the ballsack out of their mouths and play some damn football.

p.s. i love matt ryan but the Falcons are not the best team in the NFL jsut cuase theyre undefeated.

p.p.s Vick is a dog hater

p.p.s.s What you think about Saints/Broncos ??

I was thinking if buying back my Falcons wager but think I will play several ML parlays with the Packers, Eagles & either the Dolphins ML or Cowboys ML.................was also thinking of taking the Eagles in a 3 team 10 point teaser with a possibility of hitting a middle if my other two teams comes in.............we shall see..................seeing way too much love for the Eagles in this forum.

Not saying they wont win because of that but we know how that usually ends.................

As for the Broncos & Saints, well...............the Saints play the Eagles on Monday night in 2 weeks so before picking a side in this game, I would like to see what happens in the Eagles/Falcons game..............also, I am siding with a Saints ML outright win..............but that may change by Sunday night..............