NFL Sunday Week 3....

NFL Season +14.5 units

Getting these up a little early in the week to grab some of these lines while they are still available....

Sunday:
Commanders +6.5 (3.5 units)
Colts +5.5 (2.5 units)
Patriots +2.5 (2 units)
Panthers +2.5 (2 units)
Cardinals +3.5 (2 units)
Jets +6 (1 unit)
Raiders -2 (lean)

Happy to discuss any and all.

GL all.

@vanzack

 Thank you your the best

Which l8ne you think will move Van? I'm surprised your going with Washington,especially the way Philly is playing

Liking the Home Dogs alot Vanzack......

Great looking Card..

was wondering why the Dolphins didn't make the list.....

Thanks.  GL to you.

Like all of them except maybe Arizona. GL van 

@vanzack

 thanks dude yup I'm turning it around this week 

6 is a very important key number.  So the 6.5 on Washington was a big one for me to get.  I would be very surprised if it went to 7, but already seeing some 6's out there.  Big difference from +6.5 to +5.5 and I dont want to take any chances - I feel like this one is moving in that direction if it moves.

The Colts also. I actually got 6, but since 5.5 is the number now that is what I post - and I dont think it goes anywhere but down also.

Pats might get to 3 (+2.5 +107 on Lowvig right now) - that is the one I see moving in my direction.  I think Panthers and Cards are likely to go against.

What do you think?

GL

I'm gonna need you to play at least 1 total.

Pats I think will go to 3 but I also think the Saints will get to 3..What's your reasoning going with Washington? Philly is playing good and Carson isn't to be trusted..To me he plays dumb at times just like when he was with Indy

Honestly...  This is going to sound a lot less analytical than my usual answer.... But here goes...

There are sometimes one or two teams that I simply wont bet against, and one or two I simply wont bet on.  I learned through experience that trying to predict when a team like the Bills are going to have a bad game, or when a team like last years Texans are going to have a good game - is folly.  You might find a spot here or there - but the deck is stacked against you.

I do not have a "dont bet on" team yet - but I wont bet against the Bills.

OK....  now a little more analytic...  I have the Bills as a 4 point favorite.  At a line of 5...  Bills cover 48%, Dolphins 50%, push 2%.  I use a lot of different factors to arrive at the percentages in the previous sentence - but that is the determinant of whether to wager or not and how much.  I am not pretending that they are a scientific number, they are just my forecast using everything I can to give me an objective outlook on a game.  Another key factor is standard deviation - and this game is relatively pretty high - which means according to me it could land on a wide variety of scores.

Dont blame you for betting Dolphins.  But I wouldnt be surprised a single bit if they lost by 30 either.

GL

awesome....thanks for the input....

@vanzack

 Will the Colts have any WR'S this week?? I almost put a big bet in on the Bengals @-4 early in the week, I laid off, wish you weren't on the Jets but I totally get it with how the o-line and Burrow have looked thus far.  

Yeah - I understand that.  This is a stats play.  Mostly against the Rams.  They have just been TERRIBLE in their 2 games statistically.  Yes, they played the Bills - but they also played the Falcons at home and were not impressive.  I think they have a SB hangover and go on the road for the first time this season - I am not convinced that Stafford is "OK" either.  Something is off.

Rolling the dice with the Cards... but 3.5 is too much to pass up IMO.

GL

Thats the spirit.

At least 1 or 2 a season.  Hang on for week 11.

Wentz is terrible.  Not just dumb at times, dumb almost all the time.  

Just a simple case of too many points for a team that just looked great on Monday night against a team everyone loves to hate - overreaction to early season events. 

What is this line in week 1?  Are the Eagles even favored in week 1?

Eagles D is susceptible to giving up yards and points - and if Jalen isn't "good Jalen", they could struggle.  I do like the Eagles long term - maybe even to make a SB run - but giving 6.5 in a road division game like this is just way too much.

GL

Thank you Van

@vanzack

 What is your reasoning for backing the Patriots? Are the injuries to the Ravens just too much?

The BEST OF THE BEST 

Sweep your slate 

Van the man dropping some knowledge, thanks for sharing your insight.

I have only bet two sides this week - NE and IND.

I certainly hope the dogs are biting this week.  Let's get 'em and good luck.

Van I would like to know what your thoughts are on the Vikings game.. I’m leaning Vikings..this seems like a good spot to hop on the Kirk cousins train everyone just jumped off from.. This is Detroit first road game..Vikings coming off an embarrassing loss..I understand the sentiment with Detroit.. they are leading in offensive but I’m seeing Vikings winning this by 7+..I just don’t see the Vikings looking ahead to the London game next week versus the saints..

I will say this is a big statement game for both teams divisionally..Detroits is banged up.. 

chance for Campbell's team to show they can compete in this division. They are playing very  hard and are

under appreciated imo. Too many points and if neccesary have the type of team to backdoor the spread.

I like them alot.