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*** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 6

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Captain
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Posted: #1

Oakland Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks

Don’t be fooled by the Seahawks close loss last week. The Seahawks, and the Seahawks without Earl Thomas are 2 completely different teams. The Rams, despite losing their top 2 WR’s in the first half, and despite throwing an interception at Seattle’s 2 yard line – still put up 468 yards, 30 first downs, and scored 33 points. 

This new Seahawks team will struggle mightily against high-powered offenses. I wasn’t super down on the Seahawks entering the year after most their D left because their defense is a system similar to the Patriots, and players have excelled as they are put in schemes and positions to play well. And with Earl Thomas still orchestrating the system , they were still a formidable opponent despite losing a ton of other key defenders. Through 4 games they even held a record of 2-2 despite three of those games being on the road. As we saw last week, that all goes out the window with ET out. The Rams were 1 play away from scoring 39 points on them despite Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp getting knocked out early. The Raiders don’t have a great defense, but they should have an easy time going up and down the field against Seattle. Note: Decided to cut this play from 5x to 3x due to the uncertainty of the game being played in London, as there’s just too many extra variables. Either way I still like Oakland, but for slightly less.

  • Raiders +3 -120 (3x) +130 (1x)
  • Bucs +4 -123 (4x)
  • Jets -1.5 (3x) 
  • Chargers PK (2x)
  • Texans -10 (1.5x)
  • Ravens -2.5 (4x)
  • Jags -3 (2x)
  • Jags TT Over 22 (1x)
  • Patriots -3 -125 (4x)
  • Bucs +10 / Jets +7 -120 (1.5x)

NFL YTD: 43-15 ATS +65.87 Units

 
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Posted: #2
not sure why but feels like a prime week for fave's to cover. only game im hesitant about is Texans. seems like a sandwich spot and dont trust Bill O Brien's lousy playcalling. 

nice card this week, liking Ravens and Pats. 
BOL LC
Sip on that plus money honey!
 
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Posted: #3

Hey LC, BOL this week, though I doubt ya need it.   Just wondering how come ya never bet on the game totals?  

 
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Posted: #4
BOL LC  
 
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Posted: #5
I want to bash you, then question you, then hate you, then cry about tailing you.

Then I remembered that you are 43-15.

When I say "I", I don't mean me. Just reverberating the ghosts here at Covers.

Best of Luck LC 
 
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Posted: #6
Love the ravens play. GL 
 
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Posted: #7
First off let me say: I would love to see the Bucs win this week becuase ihave them over 6.5 RSW.... however, how come you aren’t worried about an Atlanta bounce back off a major blowout? I have noticed in recent years that “good” teams tend to bounce back the following week after getting blown out.... steelers dropped 40+ on them...

I won’t be be betting this game becuase of my futures circumstance, but a little feedback would be greatly appreciated as to why you like them so much. If you all ready discussed this somewhere else I am sorry for repetition, and if you could please direct me to that thread I thank you. Thanks again for all of your hard work and dedication to this forum. 
 
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Posted: #8
And why jets? I actually like colts 


Maybe I need to take the day games off and slam Sunday night and Monday night instead...
 
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Posted: #9
League Capper thanks for posting.

Anyone that has backed all of the home dogs in the NFL this year would have almost as good of a record and you do.

Do you have any statistics on road favorites playing their 3rd straight road game?  The Titans getting points at home where they are 2-0 from a Ravens team that is 1-2 on the road that is traveling for their 3rd straight game would seem to be a good spot for the Titans, but not when you make it a (4X) play on the Ravens.  Do you have an concerns about this being the Ravens 3rd straight road game.

BOL this week!!!
 
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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Oakland Raiders @ Seattle SeahawksDon’t be fooled by the Seahawks close loss last week. The Seahawks, and the Seahawks without Earl Thomas are 2 completely different teams. The Rams, despite losing their top 2 WR’s in the first half, and despite throwing an interception at Seattle’s 2 yard line – still put up 468 yards, 30 first downs, and scored 33 points. This new Seahawks team will struggle mightily against high-powered offenses. I wasn’t super down on the Seahawks entering the year after most their D left because their defense is a system similar to the Patriots, and players have excelled as they are put in schemes and positions to play well. And with Earl Thomas still orchestrating the system , they were still a formidable opponent despite losing a ton of other key defenders. Through 4 games they even held a record of 2-2 despite three of those games being on the road. As we saw last week, that all goes out the window with ET out. The Rams were 1 play away from scoring 39 points on them despite Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp getting knocked out early. The Raiders don’t have a great defense, but they should have an easy time going up and down the field against Seattle. Note: Decided to cut this play from 5x to 3x due to the uncertainty of the game being played in London, as there’s just too many extra variables. Either way I still like Oakland, but for slightly less.Raiders +3 -120 (3x) +130 (1x)Bucs +4 -123 (4x)Jets -1.5 (3x) Chargers PK (2x)Texans -10 (1.5x)Ravens -2.5 (4x)Jags -3 (2x)Jags TT Over 22 (1x)Patriots -3 -125 (4x)Bucs +10 / Jets +7 -120 (1.5x)NFL YTD: 43-15 ATS +65.87 Units

 

BOL LC I agree with 100% of these and will be playing them all except I'm adding a money line parlay Raiders/Bucs and we spoke about my 6 game card to win about 4-6K Pitt/bucs/raiders/jets/ravens/Chicago

 
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Oakland Raiders @ Seattle SeahawksDon’t be fooled by the Seahawks close loss last week. The Seahawks, and the Seahawks without Earl Thomas are 2 completely different teams. The Rams, despite losing their top 2 WR’s in the first half, and despite throwing an interception at Seattle’s 2 yard line – still put up 468 yards, 30 first downs, and scored 33 points. This new Seahawks team will struggle mightily against high-powered offenses. I wasn’t super down on the Seahawks entering the year after most their D left because their defense is a system similar to the Patriots, and players have excelled as they are put in schemes and positions to play well. And with Earl Thomas still orchestrating the system , they were still a formidable opponent despite losing a ton of other key defenders. Through 4 games they even held a record of 2-2 despite three of those games being on the road. As we saw last week, that all goes out the window with ET out. The Rams were 1 play away from scoring 39 points on them despite Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp getting knocked out early. The Raiders don’t have a great defense, but they should have an easy time going up and down the field against Seattle. Note: Decided to cut this play from 5x to 3x due to the uncertainty of the game being played in London, as there’s just too many extra variables. Either way I still like Oakland, but for slightly less.Raiders +3 -120 (3x) +130 (1x)Bucs +4 -123 (4x)Jets -1.5 (3x) Chargers PK (2x)Texans -10 (1.5x)Ravens -2.5 (4x)Jags -3 (2x)Jags TT Over 22 (1x)Patriots -3 -125 (4x)Bucs +10 / Jets +7 -120 (1.5x)NFL YTD: 43-15 ATS +65.87 Units

 

I can only get Bucs at -3 should I buy upon to 3.5 at least?

 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

First off let me say: I would love to see the Bucs win this week becuase ihave them over 6.5 RSW.... however, how come you aren’t worried about an Atlanta bounce back off a major blowout? I have noticed in recent years that “good” teams tend to bounce back the following week after getting blown out.... steelers dropped 40+ on them...I won’t be be betting this game becuase of my futures circumstance, but a little feedback would be greatly appreciated as to why you like them so much. If you all ready discussed this somewhere else I am sorry for repetition, and if you could please direct me to that thread I thank you. Thanks again for all of your hard work and dedication to this forum.

 

So many reasons for me to tag along LC's Bucs pick.   Freeman out for Falcons, Winston in for Bucs.  He got some air under his legs during that Bears blowout against top 2 defense.  Now he gets to play the horrific Falcons team in a dome.  A divisional game that he is used to playing tight with, not to mention he has the most to prove right now going forward if he wants to cherish his career on the Bucs or elsewhere.   Say what you want but he looked great in preseason, better than Fitz looked.  Yes Fitz caught fire but Winston should be way more stable.  On top of that I feel like The Falcons offense will get some fatigue now.  They've had to battle it out each and every week and seldom walked away with a win.  Only a matter of time when that engine doesn't start anymore due to no more gas in the tank.   On the opposite end Bucs got embarrassed against the Bears and even Mike Smith is caught up in the pressure now.  If anyone has a bounce back game its the Bucs here.  The falcons have had multiple chances for bounce back games and failed over and over.

 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by In2it:

League Capper thanks for posting.

Do you have any statistics on road favorites playing their 3rd straight road game?  The Titans getting points at home where they are 2-0 from a Ravens team that is 1-2 on the road that is traveling for their 3rd straight game would seem to be a good spot for the Titans, but not when you make it a (4X) play on the Ravens.  Do you have an concerns about this being the Ravens 3rd straight road game.

BOL this week!!!

Here is what I was able to find from Odds Shark on how teams playing their 3rd straight road game perform ATS, this is all games, not just games where the team is favored like the Ravens are:

Over the last three years, the team in the third consecutive road game is 13-23 straight up and 11-23-2 against the spread. 

Apparently, this does not happen often in the NFL, but when it does the team is covering less than 33% of the time.  I am not sure, but I would expect this # would go down if you only looked at teams playing their 3 game on the road that were favored.

Hope this information helps.

BOL!

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by AllDay51:

 

I can only get Bucs at -3 should I buy upon to 3.5 at least?

LC is great. He's here to give you his option.  But just word of advice, do your own research . Don't follow blindly. 

 
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Posted: #15
typo opinion not option
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

I want to bash you, then question you, then hate you, then cry about tailing you.

Then I remembered that you are 43-15.

When I say "I", I don't mean me. Just reverberating the ghosts here at Covers.

Best of Luck LC 

Lol there are lots of people on covers who blindly tail and when they lose act like cry babies and doesn't realize or appreciate that LC is doing a great job and only expect perfection which doesn't exist even with paid services and LC does all this for free.
Keep up the good work LC.
 
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Posted: #17

LC...you have a read on the line movement on the Browns/Chargers?....also like others was leaning Colts and Atlanta...

What is your read on these games?.......Thanks LC....peace_5

 
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Posted: #18
Great run sir...good luck this weekend.
Did you buy back Seahawks at -3 since you downgraded your Raiders play from 5units to 3units? 
 
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by In2it:

League Capper thanks for posting.Anyone that has backed all of the home dogs in the NFL this year would have almost as good of a record and you do.....

Home dogs are 13-8 this year....almost as good as 43-15????

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trends/ats_trends/?sc=is_home_dog

 
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Posted: #20

I don’t think New England is a good team - got crush vs Jacksonville/Detroit - could of easily lost week 1 vs Houston - they beat up on 2 average team at home -  I just don’t see how New England defense can stop KC offense Sunday night - I’m sure patriots score plenty- but there not out-scoring this KC offense - Bottom line Bill Belichick lost the super bowl because of defense - and he really didn’t do anything in the offseason - 2 fix this problem - Maybe the worst pass rush in the NFL- 

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:

not sure why but feels like a prime week for fave's to cover. only game im hesitant about is Texans. seems like a sandwich spot and dont trust Bill O Brien's lousy playcalling. 

nice card this week, liking Ravens and Pats. 
BOL LC

Thanks DK, you as well 
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by tchamps:

Hey LC, BOL this week, though I doubt ya need it.   Just wondering how come ya never bet on the game totals?  


I follow each team very closely so my edge is on how they come out ATS
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

First off let me say: I would love to see the Bucs win this week becuase ihave them over 6.5 RSW.... however, how come you aren’t worried about an Atlanta bounce back off a major blowout? I have noticed in recent years that “good” teams tend to bounce back the following week after getting blown out.... steelers dropped 40+ on them...

I won’t be be betting this game becuase of my futures circumstance, but a little feedback would be greatly appreciated as to why you like them so much. If you all ready discussed this somewhere else I am sorry for repetition, and if you could please direct me to that thread I thank you. Thanks again for all of your hard work and dedication to this forum. 

Atlanta has been in a bounce back spot all season and they are 1-4. Anyways, this is more of a play on the Bucs then it is fading Atlanta. 

Is there a team more motivated to get a win this Sunday then Tampa? Last two games Bucs lost on national TV, and lost 48-10 to Trubisky. They go in to their bye week with the worst defense in the league, and they've had 2 weeks to think about it. They get their starting QB back in the lineup.. Plus, I was already high on the Bucs heading into the season as is.

I expect to see a strong showing from them, and more effort on the defensive side.
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by In2it:

League Capper thanks for posting.

Anyone that has backed all of the home dogs in the NFL this year would have almost as good of a record and you do.

Do you have any statistics on road favorites playing their 3rd straight road game?  The Titans getting points at home where they are 2-0 from a Ravens team that is 1-2 on the road that is traveling for their 3rd straight game would seem to be a good spot for the Titans, but not when you make it a (4X) play on the Ravens.  Do you have an concerns about this being the Ravens 3rd straight road game.

BOL this week!!!

ATS:24-24-1 (-0.81, 50.0%)

I don't, considering Harbaugh will not be happy with a 1-2 record on this road trip. Lots of other intangibles favoring Baltimore in this matchup as well
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by tchamps:

So many reasons for me to tag along LC's Bucs pick.   Freeman out for Falcons, Winston in for Bucs.  He got some air under his legs during that Bears blowout against top 2 defense.  Now he gets to play the horrific Falcons team in a dome.  A divisional game that he is used to playing tight with, not to mention he has the most to prove right now going forward if he wants to cherish his career on the Bucs or elsewhere.   Say what you want but he looked great in preseason, better than Fitz looked.  Yes Fitz caught fire but Winston should be way more stable.  On top of that I feel like The Falcons offense will get some fatigue now.  They've had to battle it out each and every week and seldom walked away with a win.  Only a matter of time when that engine doesn't start anymore due to no more gas in the tank.   On the opposite end Bucs got embarrassed against the Bears and even Mike Smith is caught up in the pressure now.  If anyone has a bounce back game its the Bucs here.  The falcons have had multiple chances for bounce back games and failed over and over.


Yep, good thoughts
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