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*** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 13

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Posted: #1
LA Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers 

Through 12 weeks of the season, the Raiders and Cardinals produce the first and second worst stats in the NFL which isn't a surprise. But most wouldn't recognize the Detroit Lions being the 3rd worst, despite facing only the 15th hardest strength of schedule to date, and despite Matthew Stafford being healthy for all 12 games so far. I know the Lions have looked bad, but I think they are still being overvalued as their numbers say they are even worse than there record states.

On the flip, the Kansas City Chiefs have produced a +1.0 yards per play differential facing the 10th hardest SOS to date, while the Rams have produced a +0.6 while facing the 5th hardest SOS so far. A team that's ahead of both? The Chargers with a +1.3. Now they have done it against a weak SOS (30th), but on primetime against a AFC favorite Steelers team, I see this as their chance to prove their 8-3 start hasn't been a fluke. 

This is their biggest game of the year so far. The Steelers strength is getting to the QB as they have the most sacks in the NFL, but the Chargers have the 5th best offensive line in football which neutralizes PITT's strength a bit. Either way, I like LA's chances to go to 9-3, Rivers is having his best season to date and I think that continues here.
  • Ravens +2 -115 (4x)
  • Jaguars +4 (4x) +170 (0.5x)
  • Dolphins -3 -135 (1.5x)
  • Rams -9.5 (2.5x)
  • Browns Under 21 (1.5x)
  • 49ers +10 (3x)
  • Chargers +3.5 -115 (6x) 
  • Jaguars +11 / Ravens +8 -120 (1.5x)
NFL YTD: 84-45 ATS +57.94 Units

All are locked in but the Rams which is at -10 at the moment, but we should be able to get -9.5 or better Sunday morning once all the oldschoolers take the double digit homedog.
 
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Posted: #2

Lc.. I seen you brought miami to 3...   would u take Bill's at 5.5

 
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Posted: #3
LOVE the jags pick.  EVERYONE is on the colts to cover here.  

My take on it is that the Jags D has known for years that they would never win it all with Bortles, and since last year have gotten increasingly frustrated with him losing them games.  Ramsey made some comments earlier in the year basically trashing Bortles and saying changes need to be made at the QB position.  Their defense hasn't looked anywhere as good as last year but I think that is mostly due to lack of motivation and effort every time Bortles was again named the starter week after week this year.   But not anymore.  I think this Jags team will rally behind Kessler due to this, and play their best game of the year at home and snap their losing streak.  What was your angle on  making them a large play?
 
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Posted: #4
LC I’m with you on every side pick this week! Makes me feel good lol
 
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Posted: #5
   

CHARGERS   
 
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Posted: #6
Wow we are 96% identical. 


I’m all over ravens jags niners chargers dolphins (but I like lions) I just have this weird feeling that rams are going to lay an egg tomorrow. dumpster fire Stafford and company will be the ones to make it happen. 

I think dolphins will crush the bills wire to wire in a major statement game that they want to finish where they left off at 3-0 Before losing 6 of 8. And then we will beat the pats and fight for the division. Tome for GAME ON
 
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Posted: #7
I also have a bet on +5 and money line against your pats tomorrow. Sorry bud, but New England is having issues this year and if anyone can make it worse it will be minny imo. cousins can sling it and the defense could get to Brady.
 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

I also have a bet on +5 and money line against your pats tomorrow. Sorry bud, but New England is having issues this year and if anyone can make it worse it will be minny imo. cousins can sling it and the defense could get to Brady.

If Xavier Rhodes is out, you still like them at +5? Feel like it's critical for him to play to slow down their pass game.

 
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Posted: #9

Thank you very much

 
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Posted: #10

Hey LC I got Bills +6 at beginning of the week  AM I SAFE?

 
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Posted: #11

The Chargers have played a candy a$$ schedule...of course their team stats are strong. The Pitts' passing offense will come alive in this one and they will score early and often IMO. 

 
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Posted: #12
I like the Dolphins in this match-up but in what will be a very low scoring game I'd rather have them at -3, even if I have to pay that juice.

And right on cue, all the +3.5's on the Chargers are gone. 
 
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Posted: #13

LC is cold as hell with that Niners pick.  No Goodwin or Garcon, Mullens still starting in CenturyLink field.  But then you realize the Hawks won a game they shouldn't have last week against the Panthers on the road.  And they play a really important playoff implications game next week against the Vikings.   Super let down game by the Hawks at least enough to cover the 10 pts.

 

thumbs_up

 
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Posted: #14

But then the Rams are your choice as well LC.  Here is a team reeling from their win against the Chiefs and having to play a major playoff implications game next week at the Bears.  Looks like a super letdown game for the Rams this week.  Of the Lions 4 wins 3 of them came at home.  They beat the Pats and Panthers and Packers at home.  Are you really sure spotting them 10+ pts is the right side here?  It's literally the opposite side of the Niners/Hawks game...

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Dogjimbo:

   

CHARGERS   

I, on the other hand, LOVE the CHARGERS in this spot!!!
 
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Posted: #16

Good looking card! Love the chargers! an_cheers

 
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Posted: #17

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #18
Good Luck this week LC cant put any money on that scumbag saxonville team no fournette coach done q b done its indy or nothing much respect
 
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Posted: #19
Appreciate you LC!

 
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Posted: #20
Like the card LC...will be on a few....but I look at the Pitts home/away splits....kinda lean Pitts....Ekeler seems more like a pass catcher than a workhorse like Gordon.....but will look more into this more.....
 
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Posted: #21

Love your card LC... I have a 3 team 3pt teaser Pats -1, Texans -2.5, Miami -1 which is interesting given it pays 2.6

I'm adding your entire card to my exposure, thank you sir...

Niners - mind sharing a few lines about what you see... I was squinting at this line and this was a no bet for me, Mullins is what he was drafted as, oh wait.... and niners are devoid of talent, I could see this going an which way

 
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by crunch101:

Lc.. I seen you brought miami to 3...   would u take Bill's at 5.5

If LC is taking Miami at -3, he isn't ever advising you to take Bills at +5.5, I promise

 
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Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

I like the Dolphins in this match-up but in what will be a very low scoring game I'd rather have them at -3, even if I have to pay that juice.And right on cue, all the +3.5's on the Chargers are gone.

Haha, you moving lines legend?

 
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Posted: #24
LC...hope you go at least 6-2.....BOL
 
 
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Posted: #25

I learned many years ago not to bet on bad teams Jags and 49rs are just plain bad I do see your points though but that just means pass on those to me. I line up with the rest save Chargers to me that’s an over play that’s almost as obvious an over play as KC/La last week. BOL

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