Posted:
#151
No matter what the Commandoes do tonight, you are amazing! Thank you for sharing with us mortals.
NFL 2025 Season ATS Picks Thread
Posted:
#166
Just wanted to pause and share a little background and a few thoughts for anyone following along with this thread.
I’m currently sitting at 47–21 on NFL sides. That’s obviously a fantastic run, but it is also unsustainable. No one should expect that kind of win rate to continue indefinitely, including me.
A bit about who I am and where I’m coming from:
- I just turned 55 years old.
- I’ve been taking sports betting seriously as a money-making operation for about 20 years.
- For about 10 years before that, I made a lot of the same mistakes I see others making now:
- blindly following people on forums,
- paying for picks,
- chasing hot streaks,
- and ultimately losing money.
- I didn’t really turn the corner until I:
- leaned into data analytics,
- built and refined math models/algorithms,
- rigorously back-tested and out-of-sample tested them, and
- committed serious time, discipline, and creative problem-solving specifically for NFL sides.
Since then, I’ve been fortunate to do very well over the last 20 years, but it’s been the result of a long process, not a shortcut.
With all that said, especially knowing how much younger generations are gravitating toward sports betting, I want to offer some clear recommendations:
-
My #1 recommendation: Do NOT sports bet.
If you don’t bet, you can’t lose. For most people, the healthiest and most profitable decision is simply to stay away. -
If you choose to bet anyway, treat it like a serious business or don’t do it at all.
That means:- building your own models/algorithms,
- doing extensive back-testing and out-of-sample testing,
- tracking results honestly,
- staking conservatively, and
- accepting that even good models go through painful drawdowns.
-
If you’re going to follow someone on a forum (including me), do it the right way.
- Learn a bit about their background, process, and motives.
- Either follow all their plays or don’t follow at all. Picking and choosing is usually a losing strategy.
- Flat bet the plays (same unit size on each play), at or very close to the prices they post.
- Don’t increase your bet size just because of a hot streak. Runs like 47–21 are rare and don’t last forever.
I’m grateful this run has gone the way it has, and I hope it continues, but I want everyone reading this to have realistic expectations and to protect themselves first and foremost.
If you have questions about my approach, bankroll management, or anything related to this thread, feel free to ask. I like to keep a low profile, probably won't share much about my methods other than what I've shared already, but certainly can help guide in a general way. I keep myself very busy, particularly around this time of year, but I'll respond best I can. And if you feel like your gambling is getting out of control, please reach out for appropriate help—whether that’s a friend, family member, or a professional resource. No winning streak is worth your financial or mental health.
Best of luck, stay disciplined, and bet (or choose not to bet) responsibly.
Posted:
#169
Quote Originally Posted by Snowshoes:
Just wanted to pause and share a little background and a few thoughts for anyone following along with this thread. I’m currently sitting at 47–21 on NFL sides. That’s obviously a fantastic run, but it is also unsustainable. No one should expect that kind of win rate to continue indefinitely, including me. A bit about who I am and where I’m coming from: I just turned 55 years old. I’ve been taking sports betting seriously as a money-making operation for about 20 years. For about 10 years before that, I made a lot of the same mistakes I see others making now: blindly following people on forums, paying for picks, chasing hot streaks, and ultimately losing money. I didn’t really turn the corner until I: leaned into data analytics, built and refined math models/algorithms, rigorously back-tested and out-of-sample tested them, and committed serious time, discipline, and creative problem-solving specifically for NFL sides. Since then, I’ve been fortunate to do very well over the last 20 years, but it’s been the result of a long process, not a shortcut. With all that said, especially knowing how much younger generations are gravitating toward sports betting, I want to offer some clear recommendations: My #1 recommendation: Do NOT sports bet. If you don’t bet, you can’t lose. For most people, the healthiest and most profitable decision is simply to stay away. If you choose to bet anyway, treat it like a serious business or don’t do it at all. That means: building your own models/algorithms, doing extensive back-testing and out-of-sample testing, tracking results honestly, staking conservatively, and accepting that even good models go through painful drawdowns. If you’re going to follow someone on a forum (including me), do it the right way. Learn a bit about their background, process, and motives. Either follow all their plays or don’t follow at all. Picking and choosing is usually a losing strategy. Flat bet the plays (same unit size on each play), at or very close to the prices they post. Don’t increase your bet size just because of a hot streak. Runs like 47–21 are rare and don’t last forever. I’m grateful this run has gone the way it has, and I hope it continues, but I want everyone reading this to have realistic expectations and to protect themselves first and foremost. If you have questions about my approach, bankroll management, or anything related to this thread, feel free to ask. I like to keep a low profile, probably won't share much about my methods other than what I've shared already, but certainly can help guide in a general way. I keep myself very busy, particularly around this time of year, but I'll respond best I can. And if you feel like your gambling is getting out of control, please reach out for appropriate help—whether that’s a friend, family member, or a professional resource. No winning streak is worth your financial or mental health. Best of luck, stay disciplined, and bet (or choose not to bet) responsibly.
Just wanted to pause and share a little background and a few thoughts for anyone following along with this thread. I’m currently sitting at 47–21 on NFL sides. That’s obviously a fantastic run, but it is also unsustainable. No one should expect that kind of win rate to continue indefinitely, including me. A bit about who I am and where I’m coming from: I just turned 55 years old. I’ve been taking sports betting seriously as a money-making operation for about 20 years. For about 10 years before that, I made a lot of the same mistakes I see others making now: blindly following people on forums, paying for picks, chasing hot streaks, and ultimately losing money. I didn’t really turn the corner until I: leaned into data analytics, built and refined math models/algorithms, rigorously back-tested and out-of-sample tested them, and committed serious time, discipline, and creative problem-solving specifically for NFL sides. Since then, I’ve been fortunate to do very well over the last 20 years, but it’s been the result of a long process, not a shortcut. With all that said, especially knowing how much younger generations are gravitating toward sports betting, I want to offer some clear recommendations: My #1 recommendation: Do NOT sports bet. If you don’t bet, you can’t lose. For most people, the healthiest and most profitable decision is simply to stay away. If you choose to bet anyway, treat it like a serious business or don’t do it at all. That means: building your own models/algorithms, doing extensive back-testing and out-of-sample testing, tracking results honestly, staking conservatively, and accepting that even good models go through painful drawdowns. If you’re going to follow someone on a forum (including me), do it the right way. Learn a bit about their background, process, and motives. Either follow all their plays or don’t follow at all. Picking and choosing is usually a losing strategy. Flat bet the plays (same unit size on each play), at or very close to the prices they post. Don’t increase your bet size just because of a hot streak. Runs like 47–21 are rare and don’t last forever. I’m grateful this run has gone the way it has, and I hope it continues, but I want everyone reading this to have realistic expectations and to protect themselves first and foremost. If you have questions about my approach, bankroll management, or anything related to this thread, feel free to ask. I like to keep a low profile, probably won't share much about my methods other than what I've shared already, but certainly can help guide in a general way. I keep myself very busy, particularly around this time of year, but I'll respond best I can. And if you feel like your gambling is getting out of control, please reach out for appropriate help—whether that’s a friend, family member, or a professional resource. No winning streak is worth your financial or mental health. Best of luck, stay disciplined, and bet (or choose not to bet) responsibly.
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Amazing sir. Thank you for your advice, info, and the picks, of course. 
If you fail to Manage. You are managing to fail.
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