Quote Originally Posted by Asomugha:
You are dumb af. Vegas cant put out a line that has only 40% chance of hitting and then "all of a sudden" 60% will jump on the other side. It doesnt work like that, and they dont do it. If they put out sides that has 40% of winning, then throw 1000$ on side/total that has 60% chance of winning and youll be a millionaire within a month of following this, just bet these 60% sides lines BLINDLY.
And the reason why they want 50/50 action is because NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS they will make money. NO MATTER WHAT. They dont care if theres thrown 10 pick 6s in the last minute its irrelevant to them since they will profit either way and when you have SO MANY BETS getting that juice is millions in your pocket.
The reason why bookies are making profit either way, is because it evens out. So, bookies target goal is getting 50/50 action, but sometimes that action is going to be 54/46, but they can live with this because the variance will even out in the long run. So one day the side with 54% action will win but the next day the side with 46% action wins, so it evens out and we're back to square "50/50" one. Why is that? Because its 50/50. So ideally they want 50/50 action but losing a 54/46 game and winning another 54/46 in favor of them is gonna even just that out. BUT they will still preferably have 50/50 action because then they are GUARANTEED to make money. They are not guaranteed to make money with 54/46, but they most likely will since it should even out, but if we assume that the 54% action side won 100/100 times the bookies would be dead due to that "unluck" but if the 50 side in a 50/50 wins 100 out of 100 times they would have profited exactly as much as if it was 70% or 50% or 30%. Its Risk of Ruin, theres no risk involved to having 50/50 action, you cant find a business in this world where there is no risk involved, so if a bookie could choose to get 50/50 on all of their picks that is -110 ALL FKING BOOKIES WOULD TAKE IT. ITS RISK FREE. Thats what all businesses aim for, if you can achieve that you have a gold mine. Bookies cant sure they get 50/50 but they can do their mfing best to get as close to the 50/50 so they are granted this profit.
You can be sure as hell if they put out lines that have 60% chance of hitting at only 10% juice vegas would 100% go broke very quickly, even with juice included that would evidently happen.
Thursday night Broncos are playing the Chargers, Broncos are estimated to have a chance of around 60% of winning. So the right thing - in this scenario - is to make the game a PK'em -110/-110 on the moneyline. In this scenario they will pay out the equal amount, but they believe Chargers has 40% chance of winning, and Broncos has 60% chance of winning the game so youre telling me that having Broncos being -110 is a good idea and wont attract unnecessary action due to the line being way off in order to have 60/40 action?
I think its safe to say theres a good reason youre not a bookie.
It's pretty clear you didn't understand a single thing I wrote, and then went on a rant that did not pertain to anything I said...I've been winning in the NFL for several seasons all documented here, and you have a reputation as a perennial loser, so please, spare me the sh*t talk...
The 60% chance of winning I mentioned refers to probability. If you'd like to use a coin as the example because its the easiest to understand sure. Either side has a 50% chance of hitting, in probability 1/2. In any given football game there is a probability of either outcome occurring as well, it is just less clear than a coin, nonetheless when we cap games this is what we are doing (whether we know it or not): assessing the probability. When a point spread is set on a game the probability is altered, generally speaking to make it closer to 50/50 in terms of probability. However, because the perception regarding the teams is such a strong factor, and books need to balance their action, the 50/50 probability line is NOT where the line is set. The line is set to attract CLOSER TO (but not exactly) 50/50 money. In situations where there is a LARGE discrepancy between the 50/50 probability mark is and the 50/50 money mark there is a situation that cannot be addressed simply by aiming for 50/50 money.
When I referred to the last minutes I was talking about before a game not during a game. If an underdog is given more and more and more points until finally there is even money (but now that side has a FAR higher probability of covering) they are at risk to taking a LOT of money on the other side right before kickoff. Why would a book want to find itself in a position where more money has landed on the side with far higher probability? The obvious answer is they wouldn't. They would much prefer to keep the money uneven, so long as the majority of it is on the side with the lower probability of occurring (which you better believe they are attempting to calculate, and they are good at it). If you understand probability, you realize that while although in any given game the book has higher risk, but over time the risk is actually reduced because on their wins they win MORE, and they will win more frequently (probability is in their favor!).
I see people come up against this over and over and over, an obsession with the idea of guaranteed money (i.e. hedging and making parlays that make no mathematical sense) but the reality is a book does not care if it wins any individual game, the more the probability is stacked in their favor the more money they will win. The juice is absolutely nice, and their absolutely are games where 50/50 money is great, but this is an extremely oversimplified understanding of how "it works"