Posted Record: 19-6-2 (+30.2 units)
Some might think this is a let down spot for Baltimore after taking 3 of 4 from divisional rival, NY. I disagree and will list my reasoning below:
1) Personally, I believe Baltimore is too young and ambitious to have a let down spot. These guys have a chip on their shoulder and are out to prove that they're the best team in the AL. And I think they're making a pretty good case.
2) They currently have the 3rd best offense in baseball and 1st in the AL. However, against right handed pitching, they have the 2nd best offense and of course, 1st in the AL. Against right handed pitching, they're slashing; .276 AVG/.337 OBP./.461 SLG/.788 OPS. And in case you're wondering, they have the 5th best offense in baseball on the road.
3) It might be an understatement to say the Reds offense is below average. They have 5 regulars batting under .200. As a team, they're hitting; .218 AVG/.299 OBP./.375 SLG/.674 OPS It's no wonder they rank 18th in offensive efficiency. Remove De La Cruz from that lineup and this offense becomes one of the worst in baseball. If I'm an opposing manager, I'm pitching around Elly every chance I get.
4) Hunter Greene is the only hope the Reds have tonight. I think he'll need to go deep (7 innings) and shut down Baltimore for the Reds to win. Sure, he's capable, but I don't like his chances. First of all, he's very inconsistent and doesn't pitch particularly well at home. On the year, through 4 starts and 23.2 innings at home - he's 0-2 with a 4.94 ERA and opponents are hitting .247 against him. Did I mention that Baltimore has the 5th best road offense in baseball? If he can't get deep into the game, I expect the O's to take advantage of a subpar bullpen.
5) Baltimore got shutout two days ago. That was actually the 1st time they've been shutout this season. Since, there isn't much data to look at after shutouts, I looked at games they lost and put up 2 or less runs (which has only happened 5 times). In each case, they responded with multiple good offensive performances. In fact, they're averaging a combined 12 runs in the first 2 games following a poor offensive performance. The trend continued yesterday with 7 runs. The law of averages indicate they're good for at least 5 more today.
6) That would mean the Reds will need to score 6 against Cole Irvin and the O's pen. Given their offensive struggles, I don't see it happening. Irvin has also been much sharper since working on his secondary pitches. In his last 2 starts through 13.2 innings, he's given up 0 earned runs. He also has his walks down, averaging just over 1 per game. And on the season, he's suddenly sitting at 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. I like him to keep it going against the struggling Reds.
7) I think we're getting plus money because of the perception of the starters. Like I said, Hunter Greene is more than capable. However, if you're gonna give me +108 on the O's in this spot, I'll take it every single time. I'm also willing to run the risk of a Craig Kimbrel sighting. I trust Brandon Hyde.
I'm on Baltimore at +108 for 5 units
I'll be tied up for a bit this afternoon. Will jump in later if there are any questions or comments.
Cheers and BOL to everyone