Need Help with Picks wk 15

 Hello,

Im pretty new to this site, seems like ppl know what they are talking about.

Im in a pretty big pool that has carried over the last 6 weeks, the pot is now up to 3G's that i would love to win. Im just wondering if anyone could help this week with picks. we play ATS, and pick 10 games.

Any tips would help me out and I APPRECIATE any info or tips.

Thanks :)

viks ml

You think the Viks are gonna keep it tight against NWO?

I understand what you mean, that being said...I was new to Covers last season but only lurked and joined this year. Last year, I spent way too much time absorbing what other people were saying.
Mainly, what I learned is that everybody seems to know what they are talking about before the game.
Last year, I made a list of people I thought were the best cappers (and they were actually pretty good, overall) and would follow their posts and give them UNDUE credit for knowing so much.
Everybody has hot streaks, and we all stink it up at times.
For one thing, people who are 60% are considered good in this endeavor, but if you look at it another way....they are WRONG 40% of the time as well!
My best advice is to do your own homework, compile your own stats and information, go ahead and read if you like of  "people who know what they are talking about", but in the end...go with your own gut and work.
Then you won't feel like a complete schmuck as I did last year, changing my own picks because so and so hot capper said this or that and wind up losing.... there is no worse feeling.
I'm not going to name names but all too often people come along and proclaim how hot they are (and I'm here conceding the benefit of the doubt that they were) and as soon as I jump on board, they are absolutely HORRIBLE!
Sometimes, the simple truth is that someone who is hot is just due to lose and someone who is not hot can be due to win. 
When you go with your own stuff (and we all can find our own niches where we discover what works best for us and what doesn't), at least you have the satisfaction that it was you, and not so and so who won. You will achieve greater satisfaction and joy from winning, and learn much more when you lose by analyzing what went wrong in the thinking process. Seriously, what are you going to learn by just tailing or giving too much credit to people who you "think" are (in reality "appear to be") smart?

Best of Luck to you and I hope you win your pool!

Thanks for the post Tom,

This whole season I have been doing my homework on stats and all that junk. And I cant seem to win a damn thing, but I guess that goes along with the whole gambling part.

You're right it's much more satisfying knowing you did the work too win the big prize. I just thought i would come on here to see if anyone had any hints or tips for this week.

I went 5-5 last week, which has been the story of my life this year in my pool.

 

This week im leaning towards

STL,NYG,IND,CAR,OAK,NYJ.

Any thoughts on those? 

Take Dallas, New Orleans, Detroit (Don't take Oakland) = Strong Plays.

NYG, NYJ = Semi-Strong Plays

The rest is up to you.  Good Luck

Right on. Eventually, the homework does pay off.
Picks I do like this week are:
Atl, Det, Balt, Jets, Cin. I lean NO (but I fear on the road they are not quite the same team). Slight lean Dal coming off a loss, but they are the shits covering spreads (This year: 1-7 vs conf opp, 1-5 playing teams with losing records!). I might put Dal on a teaser since I won't be able to ignore the only Sat NFL game in town but that doesn't help you in your contest.....
This time of year, my focus is on teams which are decent and really need to win to make the playoffs. Motivation is a factor which weighs heavily this time of year.
Thoughts specifically on your picks:
STL - um, did you learn anything watching them MN? I just saw more of what I already know. In short, they really, really suck. Cin is a decent team in a pretty good division (Balt, Pit) and they really need this game. What more can I say about SL? One-legged QB, idiot play-calling, absolutely consistent red-zone-itis all year long. I couldn't pick that team if you paid me. But that's just me...
NYG - one thing which helps me following this team is to remember one major characterization. They are Schizo! They win when you expect them to lose (why I picked them SN!) and they lose when you expect them to win). Also, in divisional rivalries, expect hard fought contests. I like the +7.
Ind - Well, this might be a shit pick but I actually agree. It's a divisional rivalry at home which is a big thing. They did just cover 2 in a row vs NE and Balt, but that was getting a ton of points. I too would take a shot with them here....
Car - I'm kind of leaning this way too but make no mistake, Hou is the much better team. They are playing for HFA for the playoffs but a couple of mitigating factors are that they just clinched the div, and there could be a let-down (ask SF @ Ari about that, lol). Also, Def Co sick leave could make a difference. Also, whenever I see Car + points (but mostly in div rivalries which unfortunately this isn't), I am interested. It's a borderline, risky pick but I can see they could cover.
Oak - I predicted with my football betting buddy a couple of weeks ago after watching them lose @ Mia that Den was going to take over the division and Oak was going to go major choke mode. I'm sticking with my prediction. I like Det here. Oak has injury issues and Det gets Thug Suh back. Oak is the the worst in the NFL giving away penalty yards, I don't see that changing this week (albeit Det gives up lots of penalty yards too). IMO, Oak is done in their playoff hopes, Det will win to keep their hold on a wild card spot. Also, Det has kicked but against the AFC West this season (crushed KC and Den - both on the road) and I see more of the same Sun. My buddy picks Oak this game, we'll see who's right.
NYJ - I almost ALWAYS drool at the chance to get Jets + points. Here is no exception. They are in Make-The-Playoffs mode and Phil has been atrocious at home this season. Phil played a nice game last week, but can they do it 2 in a row? I doubt it....

As I mentioned earlier, don't put too much weight on what others say, and that includes me. You asked, I answered.
Good luck!
Kick Butt in your contest!   

Tom,

Thanks for the info on my picks, Your right i did ask and thanks for answering.

What are your thoughts on Ind this week? do you believe they are going to go 0-16? If any week they are going to win or keep it close i think it will be against Ten. This is one of my problems. I have always loved the underdogs.which sometime gets me in trouble.

The Hou game is a tough one for me, I have doubted Car all season I didnt think Newton would show up this season.

thanks for all you're insights on this wk. Ive read alot of your post's well written. I dont listen or believe everything I read on here, just need some help. Which teams do you like this week ATS?

Thanks again buddy

Tom,

went 8-2 this week! looking like I might win! Unless someone goes 9-1 or ties at 8-2.

thanks for your help