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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    must be a mathematical way to forsure profit on futures bet to win super bowl

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    Algee3290
    midnightprowl
    kingpincarbs
    Gooey_911
    clubtnt
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    Algee3290
    Algee3290
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 5:39 AM ET #1

    Read title has to be. Right now say u had only a  $320 bankroll use that number just to see if it's profitable if every team including Seattle is plus. It has to be profitable someway. 

    Odds I'm getting on betdsi to win super bowl right now. 

    Panthers +3540
    Indy +2308
    Ravens +2035
    Cowboys +1234
    Green bay +531
    Denver +497
    Pats +310
    Seattle +185 

    With $320 bankroll what would be the best most efficient way to forsure win money with every outcome. I put some numbers in on paper and only had 50% chance to win money.  

    Here's what I had so far  if u risked all of these 

    Carolina 20 12.5 chance overall. Would win $408 overall
    Indy 25 12.5% chance and 24% chance overall would win $282
    Ravens 25 12.5% chance and 37.5% chance overall would win $213
    Dallas 35 12.5% chance and 50% chance overall would win $147
    GB 45  12.5% chance and 50% chance overall would lose $36
    Denver 45 12.5% chance and 37.5% chance overall would lose $52
    Pats 50 if pats win 12.5% chance would lose $115 overall
    Seattle 75  if Seattle won 12.5% chance and overall 25% chance would lose $107 overall
    For a total of $320 at risk

    I'm still tinkering the numbers and how much to put on each for most beneficial system this is all speculation if i find numbers that work I will jump on it.  Feel free to speak your mind if you are serious about trying to make this work. If it's feasible it is definitely worth the headache and the number crunching if you have a $3200bankroll you can work the numbers the same way.  

    Ill post when and if I have better numbers. Cheers. 
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Read title has to be. Right now say u had only a  $320 bankroll use that number just to see if it's profitable if every team including Seattle is plus. It has to be profitable someway. 

    Odds I'm getting on betdsi to win super bowl right now. 

    Panthers +3540
    Indy +2308
    Ravens +2035
    Cowboys +1234
    Green bay +531
    Denver +497
    Pats +310
    Seattle +185 

    With $320 bankroll what would be the best most efficient way to forsure win money with every outcome. I put some numbers in on paper and only had 50% chance to win money.  

    Here's what I had so far  if u risked all of these 

    Carolina 20 12.5 chance overall. Would win $408 overall
    Indy 25 12.5% chance and 24% chance overall would win $282
    Ravens 25 12.5% chance and 37.5% chance overall would win $213
    Dallas 35 12.5% chance and 50% chance overall would win $147
    GB 45  12.5% chance and 50% chance overall would lose $36
    Denver 45 12.5% chance and 37.5% chance overall would lose $52
    Pats 50 if pats win 12.5% chance would lose $115 overall
    Seattle 75  if Seattle won 12.5% chance and overall 25% chance would lose $107 overall
    For a total of $320 at risk

    I'm still tinkering the numbers and how much to put on each for most beneficial system this is all speculation if i find numbers that work I will jump on it.  Feel free to speak your mind if you are serious about trying to make this work. If it's feasible it is definitely worth the headache and the number crunching if you have a $3200bankroll you can work the numbers the same way.  

    Ill post when and if I have better numbers. Cheers. 
     
    Algee3290
    Algee3290
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 5:50 AM ET #2

    We can actually have a 87.5 % chance to profit if we took out Seattle all together. I'm working on numbers so it would be a 7/8 chance to win almost guaranteed money. No one has repeated as super bowl champs since the patriots in like 00-01 was it.  It could be worth a go. 
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    We can actually have a 87.5 % chance to profit if we took out Seattle all together. I'm working on numbers so it would be a 7/8 chance to win almost guaranteed money. No one has repeated as super bowl champs since the patriots in like 00-01 was it.  It could be worth a go. 
     
    midnightprowl
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 5:55 AM ET #3

    Indy and Denver will not win SB, if I were u I would leave those 2
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    Indy and Denver will not win SB, if I were u I would leave those 2
     
    Algee3290
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 5:56 AM ET #4

    Whole Point is to try and get all 8 to forsure profit and take the safe money. And save the stress for another time lol 
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    Whole Point is to try and get all 8 to forsure profit and take the safe money. And save the stress for another time lol 
     
    Algee3290
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 6:54 AM ET #5

    Updated list without Seattle 7/8 chance 87.5% chance to win. 
    $300 bankroll
    Carolina $10 wins $64 profit
    Colts $14 wins $37.12 profit
    Ravens $15 wins $20.25 profit
    Cowboys $25 wins $33.50 profit
    Packers $68 wins $129.08 profit
    Denver $70 wins $117.90 profit
    Pats $98 wins $101.80 profit. 

    Only chance 12.5% chance to lose all 300 if Seattle wins super bowl and repeats in Phoenix Arizona come February. What ya'll think. Updated can always tinker with the numbers u know. 

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    Updated list without Seattle 7/8 chance 87.5% chance to win. 
    $300 bankroll
    Carolina $10 wins $64 profit
    Colts $14 wins $37.12 profit
    Ravens $15 wins $20.25 profit
    Cowboys $25 wins $33.50 profit
    Packers $68 wins $129.08 profit
    Denver $70 wins $117.90 profit
    Pats $98 wins $101.80 profit. 

    Only chance 12.5% chance to lose all 300 if Seattle wins super bowl and repeats in Phoenix Arizona come February. What ya'll think. Updated can always tinker with the numbers u know. 

     
    kingpincarbs
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 7:23 AM ET #6

    Are you serious with this thread? the futures are juiced so therefore you can not bet on all 8 teams and make a profit.
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    Are you serious with this thread? the futures are juiced so therefore you can not bet on all 8 teams and make a profit.
     
    Algee3290
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 7:38 AM ET #7

    You can however bet on 7 of the 8 and make a profit you have a 87.5% chance. Do the math. I will post my updated bankroll with my picks in a minute. 
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    You can however bet on 7 of the 8 and make a profit you have a 87.5% chance. Do the math. I will post my updated bankroll with my picks in a minute. 
     
    midnightprowl
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 8:17 AM ET #8

    I think it will be better to bet Carolina ml until the end as it will bring higher income. 

    They will be underdog in every single game
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    I think it will be better to bet Carolina ml until the end as it will bring higher income. 

    They will be underdog in every single game
     
    Gooey_911
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 8:28 AM ET #9

    If you're throwing out Seattle, throw out Indy too.  ZERO % chance they win the Superbowl, seriously.  If you dont spread the money around to other teams, put it in your pocket.  Give it to a homeless man, buy someone special a random gift, or someone random a special gift, but please, for the love of humanity, dont put it on Indianapolis.   
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    If you're throwing out Seattle, throw out Indy too.  ZERO % chance they win the Superbowl, seriously.  If you dont spread the money around to other teams, put it in your pocket.  Give it to a homeless man, buy someone special a random gift, or someone random a special gift, but please, for the love of humanity, dont put it on Indianapolis.   
     
    clubtnt
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 8:58 AM ET #10

    seattle +185 means implied odds of about 35% chance to win. throwing them out means 65% rest of the field wins. no "forsure" profits here, move along.
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    seattle +185 means implied odds of about 35% chance to win. throwing them out means 65% rest of the field wins. no "forsure" profits here, move along.
     
    Algee3290
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 9:04 AM ET #11

    No one ever said anything was forsure.  I'm not throwing anything away it's all speculation for now.  I was think in to take few teams out amd just go with my gut.   My gut has been telling me to go big with Carolina for a while now. 
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    No one ever said anything was forsure.  I'm not throwing anything away it's all speculation for now.  I was think in to take few teams out amd just go with my gut.   My gut has been telling me to go big with Carolina for a while now. 
     
    Algee3290
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 9:06 AM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by Gooey_911:

    If you're throwing out Seattle, throw out Indy too.  ZERO % chance they win the Superbowl, seriously.  If you dont spread the money around to other teams, put it in your pocket.  Give it to a homeless man, buy someone special a random gift, or someone random a special gift, but please, for the love of humanity, dont put it on Indianapolis.   

    Lmfao u crack me up. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gooey_911:

    If you're throwing out Seattle, throw out Indy too.  ZERO % chance they win the Superbowl, seriously.  If you dont spread the money around to other teams, put it in your pocket.  Give it to a homeless man, buy someone special a random gift, or someone random a special gift, but please, for the love of humanity, dont put it on Indianapolis.   

    Lmfao u crack me up. 
     
    J_Crow
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 11:03 AM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by Algee3290:

    No one ever said anything was forsure.

     

    um.... you said this: "Whole Point is to try and get all 8 to forsure profit and take the safe money" like two posts earlier.... and the name of this thread.... uh.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Algee3290:

    No one ever said anything was forsure.

     

    um.... you said this: "Whole Point is to try and get all 8 to forsure profit and take the safe money" like two posts earlier.... and the name of this thread.... uh.....

     
    dimndimn
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 11:54 AM ET #14

    for the teams that are dogs this weekend, wouldn't it be smarter to just roll over money with them starting this week?  If you're going to be betting Carolina to win the super bowl, they're most certainly going to be dogs in every round. 

    (not sure if it's possible, but even start an open 3 teamer and rollover CAR ML into it each week.)
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    for the teams that are dogs this weekend, wouldn't it be smarter to just roll over money with them starting this week?  If you're going to be betting Carolina to win the super bowl, they're most certainly going to be dogs in every round. 

    (not sure if it's possible, but even start an open 3 teamer and rollover CAR ML into it each week.)
     
    bk1374
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 11:57 AM ET #15

    If you are starting from scratch now (i.e. you do not have a future ticket on a remaining team with more value than their current price) you cannot "forsure" or FOR SURE make a profit.  If you could, you wouldn't be offered those lines. 

    Sounds like you are also giving each team the same 12.5% chance to win it all, which is obviously not accurate either.  In a vacuum yes, but obviously the teams are not all equal.
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    If you are starting from scratch now (i.e. you do not have a future ticket on a remaining team with more value than their current price) you cannot "forsure" or FOR SURE make a profit.  If you could, you wouldn't be offered those lines. 

    Sounds like you are also giving each team the same 12.5% chance to win it all, which is obviously not accurate either.  In a vacuum yes, but obviously the teams are not all equal.
     
    wildcat95
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 12:01 PM ET #16

    If you are going to "throw out a team", you can bet that on 5dimes.  Field vs. Seahawks is -240.
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    If you are going to "throw out a team", you can bet that on 5dimes.  Field vs. Seahawks is -240.
     
    smarterthanyou
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 12:46 PM ET #17

    except that all those percentages you listed are made up--just because you have 8 horses in a race doesn't make the odds equal for every horse
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    except that all those percentages you listed are made up--just because you have 8 horses in a race doesn't make the odds equal for every horse
     
    Vicente_
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 1:13 PM ET #18

    why not just play Seattle not to win the Superbowl?
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    why not just play Seattle not to win the Superbowl?
     
    Algee3290
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 1:45 PM ET #19

    Is there a way to do that? I only have betdsi account I don't see that option to bet against Seahawks. It's all speculation I may just play my 4 favorites and try to turn a profit that way.  Or playing all dogs moneyline this week could also be profitable if even one of the 4 hit I could strike gold. I like to think outside of the box. I am almost certain there are others using this method as their bread and butter. 
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    Is there a way to do that? I only have betdsi account I don't see that option to bet against Seahawks. It's all speculation I may just play my 4 favorites and try to turn a profit that way.  Or playing all dogs moneyline this week could also be profitable if even one of the 4 hit I could strike gold. I like to think outside of the box. I am almost certain there are others using this method as their bread and butter. 
     
    Algee3290
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 1:47 PM ET #20

    Mrfixers me and you know that the  Panthers have just won 6 in a row and are hot. For $10 is it worth the shot at all the possible winnings my $10 could go to a lot worse of a destination. 
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    Mrfixers me and you know that the  Panthers have just won 6 in a row and are hot. For $10 is it worth the shot at all the possible winnings my $10 could go to a lot worse of a destination. 
     
    thorpe
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 2:55 PM ET #21

    If you want to fade the Seahawks, just bet their opponent ML.  There is usually a lot of juice on futures.  ie, much more than a straight -110 bet.
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    If you want to fade the Seahawks, just bet their opponent ML.  There is usually a lot of juice on futures.  ie, much more than a straight -110 bet.
     
    casheasy
    casheasy
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 8:31 PM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

    If you want to fade the Seahawks, just bet their opponent ML.  There is usually a lot of juice on futures.  ie, much more than a straight -110 bet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

    If you want to fade the Seahawks, just bet their opponent ML.  There is usually a lot of juice on futures.  ie, much more than a straight -110 bet.

     
    Vicente_
    Vicente_
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 8:46 PM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by Algee3290:

    Is there a way to do that? I only have betdsi account I don't see that option to bet against Seahawks. It's all speculation I may just play my 4 favorites and try to turn a profit that way.  Or playing all dogs moneyline this week could also be profitable if even one of the 4 hit I could strike gold. I like to think outside of the box. I am almost certain there are others using this method as their bread and butter.


    5Dimes has this option.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Algee3290:

    Is there a way to do that? I only have betdsi account I don't see that option to bet against Seahawks. It's all speculation I may just play my 4 favorites and try to turn a profit that way.  Or playing all dogs moneyline this week could also be profitable if even one of the 4 hit I could strike gold. I like to think outside of the box. I am almost certain there are others using this method as their bread and butter.


    5Dimes has this option.
     
    Algee3290
    Algee3290
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 9:24 PM ET #24

    Thanks for your opinions fellas, dsi dosent have this option to be seahawks vs the field. But definitely something to think about. I may take the ml dogs this weekend and see if it's somehow profitable if just one of them wins. 
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    Thanks for your opinions fellas, dsi dosent have this option to be seahawks vs the field. But definitely something to think about. I may take the ml dogs this weekend and see if it's somehow profitable if just one of them wins. 
     
     
    Vicente_
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    Posted: Jan. 6, 2015 - 9:33 PM ET #25

    Good luck. One thing about gambling is there's no such thing as sure money.
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    Good luck. One thing about gambling is there's no such thing as sure money.
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