Mathmatical odds on buying the 1/2 to +3 with Seattle.

I'm leaning Seattle plus the points due to the value from open (Seattle -2.5) to the current line.

I can basically get the plus 2.5 juice free but have another online book (Bovada) where I can play Seattle at 240/200. I know the sharps always recommend buying to the 3, but to me the math tells me it's a bad bet.

Consider this.....if you buy the 3, you need the spread to land on EXACTLY 3 MORE THAN one out of five times to make this bet positive EV.

Will this game land EXACTLY on the Denver -3 MORE THAN 20% of the time? Seems to me that it's best to take the 2.5 or the ML. Thoughts?

Buying it to 4 will cost -172. So now the math tells us that the line must fall on Denver by 3 or 4 exceeding 6 out of 10.....OVER 60% of the time to break even.

That's an insane waste of bankroll.

Buying it to 4 will cost -172. So now the math tells us that the line must fall on Denver by 3 or 4 exceeding 6 out of 10.....OVER 60% of the time to break even.

That's an insane waste of bankroll.

Seems logical as Denver backers will want to get in ahead of a move to 3, whereas Seattle backers see relatively little difference in a move from 2.5 to 2.

While I waited it out, 5dimes went to Sea +2.5 -108 and Bovada went to +3 -115.

So I played 300/260 on the +3 with Bovada since the difference in juice was $21 from the 5dimes plus 2.5 which would have been 281/250. In this case, I have to land on the 3 less than one in ten which I think is excellent mathematical value.

By the way, the price to buy to the 3 on 5dimes would have been $342/250 so having two books saved me $61 in vig IF I lose.

5dimes is now Seattle +2.5, -109 and Bovada is +3, -120 so I think I hit the sweet spot on the line.

Now all I need is for Lynch to run wild. He's the key.