Line-Lord, Lets have a POLL

What would you rather bet on:

Choose:

An Elite and proven QB with a Depleted Offense and a Defense ranked 31st at stopping the run and giving you 6 points?  

VS

A Back-up QB at home with a stifling Defense and getting 6 points? 

"You must choose. But choose wisely. For as the true Grail will bring you life, the false Grail will take it from you."

Tough question for sure. I usually get burned asking a poor QB to win a game & or cover.  See Raiders…. Most of the betting % (splits) said take the Raiders but I just couldn’t do it, instead I got lucky & played the total (over) and that was close because Geno is so bad. I want to take the Bills but everything is saying take Houston. Its gonna be like Monday night?..

Covers bloodbath: Houston Texans 

I'll take 31st rank defense against Mills any day 

Josh Allen the General is 8-0 SU and 5-1 ats on the road in TNF games 

@LDogg74

 Agreed. The line was -3 for Buffalo before we knew Stroud was out in Concussion protocols. I can totally see this being a close but stubborn game where mistakes and penalties decide the outcome. Like Bills 20-14 or something. Allen is amazing but he is missing A LOT of talent tonight. 

@LineLord

Hardman, kinkaid, and Samuel is a lot of missing talent? 

@SPark1

 At least you know you have a chance with a QB like Allen regardless of the score. After the 1st quarter Monday night if you bet the Raiders you knew it was over. I would have rather gotten a root canal vs watching him trying to cover a game for me. I dont know if Mills is that bad but he is light years from Josh Allen.

@SPark1

 The dreaded undefeated streak/trend 

@SPark1

 WR Khalil Shakir is also listed as "Out" personal. Him and his Wife just had a baby. Unless there are reports in other areas that he is in he is a BIG piece missing I'd say

@LineLord

 The guy had 1 catch for -3 yards against the Bucs. He's on my fantasy bench

@SPark1

 We are not asking Allen to just win though, we are asking him to cover -6 on the road and against a very good Defense. WITHOUT key pieces missing from his Offense. I get it, Its Allen. But WTF lol. That is why I made this post. Love the feedback guys 

shakir is playing tonight guys. the dark horse might be gabe davis 

Think i'm going with the gambling Monkey on this one. 

@SPark1

 Good Point lol 

Texans has won and covered EVERY game in houston since 2006

@SPark1

 he’s referring to Bills vs Texans matchups…

 So Bills are 0-5 in Houston since 2006. Josh Allen is 0-3. He played there in 2018, 2020 (playoffs), and 2024. In 2024, stroud threw for 331 yards in the Diggs revenge game. Not to mention Allen went 9/30 and the bills lost on a GW field goal

@SPark1

 Bet the Buffies, you've made your mind up. GL with your theories.

I’ll take the elite defense at home with 6 points. Their backup is serviceable and stroud is trash anyway. 

My answer is "B"

Having said that and as much as I cant stand teasers, this game has teaser written all over it.  I love the Hou side getting 11.5 here and over the total of 38.5.  It just makes sense.

How did that confuse you?  Did you really think he meant Houston had not lost a home game since 2006? And also covered every single home game?

 I agree with you.  Mills can make plays with his legs if need be. I like to look at the last 3 road games the Bills have played

Atl 14-24  

Carolina 23-9  ( vs Dalton scrub)

Miami  13-30 

Thats an AOPR of 16.5 (very weak rated teams) Buffs ave offensive pure points output 14 ppg gave up 24 PPG

Houstons last 3 home Jags ( bad) Denver. SF  (AOPR of 21)  Off pure pts for (PPF) 26  PPA 18

Stroud played in only one of those home games vs Jags...will see what he can do