Line Drop

Everyone at the bar (90%) was fat and happy Monday after locking in their sure winner...Colts -5.5.  Now we have chaos tonight with the line drop to -4.5.  I heard everything from the Colts having secret injuries to the Colts drinking too much.

Anyway I told them I would start a little thread  tonight and try to get some information that was not beer induced.

IMO the syndicates hammered it immediately from Indy -3.5 to about -5, then the public rode it all the way to 6(!), where the same syndicates again pounced from 6 /5.5 in an attempt to catch a nice middle, 2.5 being the max since the line opened of course.

Joe 6-pack was on the Colts initially, but I'm sure he's re-thinking his undoubtedly euphoric snap-decision to load on the Colts above 5 all of a sudden... heh heh heh

this is a typical vegas head fake. wise guys pound the colts at 3' and buy the hook. all the $$$$ pouring in on the colts. the line gets to 5' and still all the money on the colts. it goes to 6 and now vegas has to make a decision......move the line to 6' and all the wise guys waiting for the 6' buy the hook and now have a huge middle. they're on colts -3 and saints +7. so WHAT HAPPENS??? all of a sudden freeney is hurt??? why are we just hearing about this now?? he got hurt in the fourth quarter of the jets game. 8 days go by before its made public. they had to stop the line from going up further. now colts backers are at a pause..........saints backers think its topped out and start betting the dog.....or did they????? or is this just another vegas mind fuck???

they move it back to 4' and here's the key my friends, it will stay there. dog bettors that feel they waited too long and missed out on the best line will now tease to +10' and over 51.

don't be a sucker...colts win by 2 td's and the game stays under

COLTS 34

SAINTS 21

BOL 2 ALL

IT IS AMAZING THAT WITH ALL THIS SIDE LINE MOVEMENT BACK AND FORTH, I HAVE NOTICED LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE TOTAL LINE.

DARN---IF I DIDN'T HEAR YESTERDAY THAT 78% OF THE $ BET SO FAR HAS BEEN ON OVER.

 IF THAT IS TRUE THIS 'OLE COUNRTY BOY WOULD THNK THE LINE MIGHT MOVE UP TO ATTRACT MORE UNDER $.

UNLESS---oh ,that's it, our good friends in Vegas want us to win on "over " to repay some of the $ we lost on the Colts.

BET UNDER--WHO CARES WHO WINS THE GAME  AND BY HOW MUCH.

  Repeat of earlier post  somewhere else in space.

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If you agree that a majority of the public will case their vote on behalf of The Saints these next few days as a  result of the Katrina news coverage (Sympathy Vote) and the Freeney ankle coverage (Hope is alive Vote), you might consider this:

Most of the vote will be in small votes by people who don't have the ability to place those votes directly in the Las Vegas system. In fact most of these people don't know how to use a computer or own one.

As a result when these small votes build up in their Bookkeeper's Ballot Box, the Bookkeeper then will lay off those votes to be organized by big Bookkeepers that make their way to Vegas to layoff the votes in the system.

I figure the volume of these votes will be counted in Vegas Saturday afternoon and early Sunday. It is not in these guys nature to stand in line while the crowds are there.

FOR NOW, I am going to sit back and watch the line move down until Friday nite then I will vote heavy for the Colts.

If I where playing Saints I would, at this point, wait 'till late Sunday for the line to move back up.

Maybe I could be WRONG!