Posted:
#1
time to go to work.
2 rookies qb's starting on wild card weekend, interesting. dalton been sick, but should be ok, yates is cleared to play, although i wouldn't be too upset if delhomme found his way on to the field, he's def been there done that before. seems like dalton has hit a little bit of a wall, I also think Hall going down had something to do with it as well as all the sudden the bengals aren't so tough defensively, especially against the run! since week 10 they are giving up over 4.5 ypc, that does not bode well when your going to be in a frenzied environment trying to stop foster and tate and johnson's presence is there to stretch the field or at least be a threat to. advantage texans. yates beat this same bengals team in week 14, even when they were able to load the box to stop the running game with no johnson on the field. houston also had one of their worst games in that one as they gave up 5 sacks and lost the turnover battle 2:4 and still beat the bengals on the road. on the other side, joseph held green in check last time and i see no reason why he won't be able to do the same. i think houston is the better team and although bengals play in their vaunted division, i'm not completely buying them as a playoff team. depending on the line you got, the bengals have covered 1 time in their last 8 games and i'm pretty sure they were winless against any playoff team they played in the regular season. game should def be close and defensive, but I think houston gets it done and covers despite both defenses playing well today. they are at home, more equipped to aid a rookie qb with their running game and johnson on the outside.
not crazy about the 4, but still on it:
Houston -4
UNDER 40 (-134)
new orleans knows how football can make you feel better, detroit is experiencing that very thing this season, they haven't been to the playoffs since '99 when Bobby Ross (former coach of my high school - colonial heights high school in colonial heights, va) was their coach. If the Lions are going to advance, they'll have to do something they haven't done all season -- beat a team with a winning record. The Lions went 0-5 against teams that finished above .500 and lost to every other NFC playoff team except the Giants, who they did not play. BUT, they have played N.O. once already this year and it was in the superdome. they did their typical shoot themselves in the foot routine with a bunch of dumb penalties, none on suh though as he wasn't there for that one. they were also missing delmas in the defensive backfield. another missing piece was kevin smith, he went out sometime in the first half and never returned, certainly disrupting their offensive game plan. so the lions get some key defensive pieces back, the only way they can hope to stop brees is to only rush with their front 4, brees is just too good and will take advantage of you if you blitz him. I think you also have to look at how the saints defense has been playing as of late. there is much being said about their lack of takeaways, but since their bye week, look at how many points they've given up
24,17,17,20,16,17 against some pretty good offenses, these same lions, giants, panthers, falcons. saints d has been playing rather well i think. so, when these two just played, it was saints -9 and 55. final score was 31-17, falling well under and a narrow saints cover. so what has changed? suh is back, delmas is back, smith is back and saints defense is better. i'll take my chances with the points and the under.
Lions +12
UNDER 60.5 (-122)
2 rookies qb's starting on wild card weekend, interesting. dalton been sick, but should be ok, yates is cleared to play, although i wouldn't be too upset if delhomme found his way on to the field, he's def been there done that before. seems like dalton has hit a little bit of a wall, I also think Hall going down had something to do with it as well as all the sudden the bengals aren't so tough defensively, especially against the run! since week 10 they are giving up over 4.5 ypc, that does not bode well when your going to be in a frenzied environment trying to stop foster and tate and johnson's presence is there to stretch the field or at least be a threat to. advantage texans. yates beat this same bengals team in week 14, even when they were able to load the box to stop the running game with no johnson on the field. houston also had one of their worst games in that one as they gave up 5 sacks and lost the turnover battle 2:4 and still beat the bengals on the road. on the other side, joseph held green in check last time and i see no reason why he won't be able to do the same. i think houston is the better team and although bengals play in their vaunted division, i'm not completely buying them as a playoff team. depending on the line you got, the bengals have covered 1 time in their last 8 games and i'm pretty sure they were winless against any playoff team they played in the regular season. game should def be close and defensive, but I think houston gets it done and covers despite both defenses playing well today. they are at home, more equipped to aid a rookie qb with their running game and johnson on the outside.
not crazy about the 4, but still on it:
Houston -4
UNDER 40 (-134)
new orleans knows how football can make you feel better, detroit is experiencing that very thing this season, they haven't been to the playoffs since '99 when Bobby Ross (former coach of my high school - colonial heights high school in colonial heights, va) was their coach. If the Lions are going to advance, they'll have to do something they haven't done all season -- beat a team with a winning record. The Lions went 0-5 against teams that finished above .500 and lost to every other NFC playoff team except the Giants, who they did not play. BUT, they have played N.O. once already this year and it was in the superdome. they did their typical shoot themselves in the foot routine with a bunch of dumb penalties, none on suh though as he wasn't there for that one. they were also missing delmas in the defensive backfield. another missing piece was kevin smith, he went out sometime in the first half and never returned, certainly disrupting their offensive game plan. so the lions get some key defensive pieces back, the only way they can hope to stop brees is to only rush with their front 4, brees is just too good and will take advantage of you if you blitz him. I think you also have to look at how the saints defense has been playing as of late. there is much being said about their lack of takeaways, but since their bye week, look at how many points they've given up
24,17,17,20,16,17 against some pretty good offenses, these same lions, giants, panthers, falcons. saints d has been playing rather well i think. so, when these two just played, it was saints -9 and 55. final score was 31-17, falling well under and a narrow saints cover. so what has changed? suh is back, delmas is back, smith is back and saints defense is better. i'll take my chances with the points and the under.
Lions +12
UNDER 60.5 (-122)
0
With you halfway Eric, I got Detroit +13 , but am taking the over, this is do or die and I figure there will be 3 interceptions, 2 returned for scores. One of us wins anyway!! good luck
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