Record stands @ 8-8 - 605. GB was up 21-6 going into the 4th quarter and got outscored 25 to 6 last night to put me in the negative here on posted plays. Still way up on the overall past month or so. I wager on other sports as well just too much to post everything I bet. This line tonight is fake , don’t be surprised if the LAC win outright. My numbers come up with LAC - 7.6 . Whenever I see this the dog has covered or won outright almost 53% of the time. The best team NE beat all year long was Buffalo. Just about every team they played and beat had a losing record. They’ve faced the 31st or 32nd SOS this year. This has been frozen all week long @ - 3.5 with over 65 % of bets on NE. Defensive DVOA , LAC - 6.5 % ranked #10th , NE’s DVOA is + 5.5 % ranked #23rd. NE’s rush defense is 24th nationally since week 9 , and we know the LAC can run the ball with Hampton and Herbert. I know LAC’s offensive line is the worse in the league but, NE is only 19th in pass rush win rate, with a soft SOS. NE ranks 31st in defense per DVOA in the RZ & only 16th in offense. Another model I looked at have LAC winning tonight over 55.03 %, it’s a model , I’ve been following for years with great success. Jesse Minter, if you haven’t seen him play, you’re in for a treat tonight, he is a throwback shut down corner. LAC are 2nd in EPA defensively since week 10 with a much tougher schedule. LAC have held 9/10 opponents this year under 20 points. There defense is legit. Since week 12, NE’s defense stoping the run is 30th in EPA per play. Terrible. This NE team is a fraudulent team with a fraudulent record. Defense: Opponent completion rate, LAC 60.79 % , NE 66.41,% , opponent 3rd down % , LAC 35.18 % , NE 38.50 %, opponent RZ scoring, LAC 46.94 % , NE 67.50 %. Much more information I have but the game is about to start. Going LAC + 4 6,250/5,000 GL
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Record stands @ 8-8 - 605. GB was up 21-6 going into the 4th quarter and got outscored 25 to 6 last night to put me in the negative here on posted plays. Still way up on the overall past month or so. I wager on other sports as well just too much to post everything I bet. This line tonight is fake , don’t be surprised if the LAC win outright. My numbers come up with LAC - 7.6 . Whenever I see this the dog has covered or won outright almost 53% of the time. The best team NE beat all year long was Buffalo. Just about every team they played and beat had a losing record. They’ve faced the 31st or 32nd SOS this year. This has been frozen all week long @ - 3.5 with over 65 % of bets on NE. Defensive DVOA , LAC - 6.5 % ranked #10th , NE’s DVOA is + 5.5 % ranked #23rd. NE’s rush defense is 24th nationally since week 9 , and we know the LAC can run the ball with Hampton and Herbert. I know LAC’s offensive line is the worse in the league but, NE is only 19th in pass rush win rate, with a soft SOS. NE ranks 31st in defense per DVOA in the RZ & only 16th in offense. Another model I looked at have LAC winning tonight over 55.03 %, it’s a model , I’ve been following for years with great success. Jesse Minter, if you haven’t seen him play, you’re in for a treat tonight, he is a throwback shut down corner. LAC are 2nd in EPA defensively since week 10 with a much tougher schedule. LAC have held 9/10 opponents this year under 20 points. There defense is legit. Since week 12, NE’s defense stoping the run is 30th in EPA per play. Terrible. This NE team is a fraudulent team with a fraudulent record. Defense: Opponent completion rate, LAC 60.79 % , NE 66.41,% , opponent 3rd down % , LAC 35.18 % , NE 38.50 %, opponent RZ scoring, LAC 46.94 % , NE 67.50 %. Much more information I have but the game is about to start. Going LAC + 4 6,250/5,000 GL
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