Gotta love Championship Sunday. Let's look at some numbers:
LA 7 1 12 19 2 5
-2.5 Sea 11 8 3 10 1 13
Sea opens up as a 2.5 pt fav currently the same (madduxsports.com) .
The rams are better in Off rushing rank at 7 vs 11; Off. passing rank at 1 vs 8; and Sched strength at 5 vs 13; Meanwhile Sea is better in Def rushing at 3 vs 12; Def passing at 10 vs 19; and Sagarin rank 1 vs 2. 3 categories for LA 3 categories for Sea.
What's it all mean - that's the question. From what Sea did last week - a 6 to 41 thrashing of SF - they are definitely a great team and are number 1 in sagarin rank. When I look at playoff data with these numbers and an opening line of 2.5 - I don't have any exact scenarios, however, when I look at playoff data with an opening line of 2.5 for the home team in the playoffs - the record where the away team has won it or covered - is 7-2 (majority won it straight up) .
Looking at regular season data with an opening line of 2.5 and having this scenario - we had two games where both times the away team won it straight up.
I think the Rams take it Straight up today - however, I'll take the 2.5 My plays:
1. Rams +2.5
The NE/Denver game is a gamble based on a QB for Denver who hasn't played pretty much at all. How well will he do as a replacement - better worse - will the team rally around him - we don't know. Will Maye hold on to the ball - on paper Sagarin ranks NE 3 and Denver 7 both have weak schedules 32 for NE 31 for Denver.
Smart play is to avoid - but like many of you I enjoy the action - my play:
2. NE ML - 205 to Rams +2.5 pay 1.82 to 1
Good luck all.
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