Thanks for the Houston play 
Tried to warn you about the hammer in N.O. 
Brees will go to Superbowl and win it all 
Defense and running game are good too.
They should be good value on the road for the next 2 games 
The Giants offense is
not on fire quite to the extent that the media is painting Eli/Giants out to
be. The Question is:
Can the Falcons keep
from allowing Eli to get 70+ yard scoring plays (particularly Victor Cruz)?
And can the Falcons
keep away from giving the Giants the ball with less than 60 yards to go?
These 2 questions
may very well hold the key to deciphering this match up. In the last 2 weeks of the regular season,
the Giants scored 36 of their 60 points from either a 74 + pass play (14 of
their 60 pts) to Cruz (1 for 99, and 1 for 74), or when they were given
possession with 59 or less yards to go (22 of their 60 pts). In other words, other than one broken play
(vs Jets) on 3rd and 10 they struck gold for 99 yards, hit a pass
for 74 yard score, got a excessively short field, or they usually will end up
punting. In the last 2 weeks, with a
standard possession of 60 (or more ) yards to go, and without a 74+ yard single
passing score the Giants only scored 24 total points (in 2 games) from 19 total
qualifying possessions. Of those 19
possessions, they punted 13 times, scored 4 times (3 TDs and 1 FG), threw 1
INT, went for it on 4th down once (failed), and totaled 424 yards
(or 22.32 total yards per offensive possession).
2 weeks ago vs the
Jets, It is all smoke and mirrors.
The Giants appear to be rolling on offense, but if not for a fluke play,
and Sanchez incompetence; the Giants would have probably been held to 7 points
for the entire game, and lost this one. In
the first half Eli was being dominated to the extreme—he had a 3rd
down and 10 @ his own 1 yard line when he hit victor Cruz for a 9 yd pass into
double coverage (one defender tried to reach around, while the other fell down)
and it went for 99 yard score. Other than that play, Eli had completed only 25%
of his passes for only 5.5 yards per attempt in the first half. Other than that one fluke play, the Giant’s
were held to 78 total first half yards, and 3 points from a drive that started
from the Giants 45 yard line.
Sanchez was beyond
a doubt the Gmen’s MVP. If not
for his 2 INT’s, 1 fumble, and his being sacked for a safety (late in the 4th,
where the Jets had to try an onside kick from their own 20), the Giants would
have lost this game.
Not counting that one ‘fluke’ and only counting ‘normal’ NFL
drives (beginning from their own 40 or beyond), the Giants had 10 drives that
produced a total of 133 yards (81 from a 4 play scoring drive, and 15 from a
roughing the passer penalty). Minus 5
plays (the 4 play / 81 yd score, and the 15 yard penalty) from non-Sanchez
gifts, the Giants had 9 possessions that produced 7 three and outs, 1 INT, and
one 6 and out for a whopping total of 52 yards (around 2 yards per play total),
8 punts, 1 INT.
2 weeks ago vs the
Jets, It is all smoke and mirrors.
The Giants appear to be rolling on offense, but if not for a fluke play,
and Sanchez incompetence; the Giants would have probably been held to 7 points
for the entire game, and lost this one. In
the first half Eli was being dominated to the extreme—he had a 3rd
down and 10 @ his own 1 yard line when he hit victor Cruz for a 9 yd pass into
double coverage (one defender tried to reach around, while the other fell down)
and it went for 99 yard score. Other than that play, Eli had completed only 25%
of his passes for only 5.5 yards per attempt in the first half. Other than that one fluke play, the Giant’s
were held to 78 total first half yards, and 3 points from a drive that started
from the Giants 45 yard line.
Sanchez was beyond
a doubt the Gmen’s MVP. If not
for his 2 INT’s, 1 fumble, and his being sacked for a safety (late in the 4th,
where the Jets had to try an onside kick from their own 20), the Giants would
have lost this game.
Not counting that one ‘fluke’ and only counting ‘normal’ NFL
drives (beginning from their own 40 or beyond), the Giants had 10 drives that
produced a total of 133 yards (81 from a 4 play scoring drive, and 15 from a
roughing the passer penalty). Minus 5
plays (the 4 play / 81 yd score, and the 15 yard penalty) from non-Sanchez
gifts, the Giants had 9 possessions that produced 7 three and outs, 1 INT, and
one 6 and out for a whopping total of 52 yards (around 2 yards per play total),
8 punts, 1 INT.
Vs Dallas I : Dallas was up by 12 pts with 6:35 to go in the
game and NY scored one of their final 2 TD’s in less than 5 minutes with…you
guessed it, a short field (58 yards). In
this game, the Giant’s scored 13 of their 37 pts (35%) with a short field (59
or less to start their drive).
The point I am
making is clear, of their last 3 games vs near ‘quality’ teams (near playoff teams) they scored 48
total points that were not 74+ yard strikes, or starting with a short field (16
pts a game), and this was against teams that did not make the playoffs. Atlanta has allowed 14 total offensive plays
@ half that yardage total (40 or more), they are aware of what Cruz has been
doing, and I don’t see them allowing him easy access to long scoring strikes. It looks strong on the surface; 97 points
scored in those 3 games, but only 48 (less than half) were qualified points
(standard length field to start possession, and not a scoring strike of 3
quarters, or more, of the field).
Turnovers tend to
be the #1 reason a team gets a short field. Understandably, the Cowboys and the Jets are
+4 and -3 in turnover margins, and Atlanta is +6 (ranked 6th best in
the NFL). Matt Ryan has thrown a total
of 12 INTs this season (0 in last 4 games), and is ranked 8th (in
team comparison) best in INT %. Atlanta
is ranked 14th in fumbles lost % in the NFL. The Giants average 1.9 take aways per game,
and the Falcons average 1.8. All in all,
I do not see the Falcons giving the Giants the short field that Rob Ryan (let’s
face it, he would not be in the NFL if not for his brother’s and his father’s
names), and Sanchez (all opposing teams absolute best friend) gave them.
Atlanta pass
Defense: This is a pass defense
that is not as good as the Jet’s pass D, but slightly better than Dallas’s pass
D. The difference here is that Matt Ryan
is a much better QB than Sanchez is (longer drives and more rested D), and no
QB is as drastically different in standard games compared to critical games as
Tony Romo (the quintessential choke artist).
Matty Ice will keep his D off the field for the majority of the game
(Atlanta is 3rd in the league in TOP), so this pass D should hold up
against Eli starting from standard field drives pretty well (once more, the
Giants score 16 per game from standard field lengths unless they hit a 74+ yrd
score). Eli has struggled (as most QBs
do) when hit/hurried/sacked with consistency.
Thought Atlanta only sacks the opposing QBs 5.72% of passing drop backs,
they are stellar in hits/hurries/sacks as a whole. Between John Abraham, Jonathan Babineaux, and
Corey Peters, they hit, hurry, or sack opposing QB’s 29.3% of all total passing
drop-backs.
Scoring / Scoring
allowed: The Giant’s are the only
team in the playoffs that have allowed 400 pts this season (actually, there are
only 7 teams in the NFL have allowed more pts scored), and the Giants have
scored less than any NFC playoff team (except SF). The Falcons have allowed 50 less points than
the Gmen, and have scored only 8 more total points than the Giants have.
Running game: This should be key. I preface this with ‘should’ because the
Falcons played NO’s, and any fool knows that the only way Atlanta could win
that game would be to keep Brees off the field, and the only way to do that is
to run the ball consistently with Michael Turner. The turning point in that game was in the
first half when it was a 1 score game, Ryan came out throwing for 6 straight
downs. Failing to convert the 2nd
first down, Atlanta punted, Saints scored, and that was the beginning of the
end. Ryan and Mike Smith decided to try
to go toe to toe passing vs Brees…that will fail 95% of the time. The question is, will Smith focus on the run
game, and will Ryan get in a passing pissing contest with Eli, or will he hold
back calling audibles at the line?
Considering Ryan’s 0-2 playoff history, I think he is focused on winning
and not so much the ego aspect of wanting to win on his arm. Mike Smith is in that same boat (0-2). Both will be focused on just the W. The Giant’s have the NFL’s worst run attack; averaging
just 3.5 per carry. Atlanta is ranked 17th
@ 4.3 ypc. The Giant’s allow 0.3 more
yards per carry than Atlanta does.
Hence, Atlanta should end up with 60-100 more rushing yards than will
the Giants.
Passing game: Both QB’s are pretty equal (as both have near
identical Passer Ratings), though Eli is slightly more suseptable to thowing
picks (Both have 29 passing TDs but Eli has 4 more picks), and Eli has almost
800 more passing yards. I think the
advantage is to Ryan here; Eli does not have the rushing game that Ryan has to
work with, and this will play into an advantage to Atlanta’s defense, and keep
NYG D off balance. I also think Ryan has
performed much better in the latter half of the season than he did in the early
portion (stats somewhat skewed because of it)
Summary: Not a whole
lot of points I need to make that I have not already made. The Giant’s need TO’s or they are very average,
to even below average. They have to get
that quick/long strike or they are below mediocre, and I don’t see Mike Smith
making that task very easy for them. The
Cowboys and the Jets did not make the post season for concrete reasons, and
those reasons helped the Giant’s look much better than they are on national television—hence
the line is off by a fair margin in this game.
Many will say that Atlanta is a ‘warm’ weather team, and I give them the
fact that Atlanta has not played in any real cold weather this season (closest
was in Indy in early November), but that edge should not play too
heavily,..afterall, many of their players are from cold weather states, or
played in cold weather in college. Many
will say that Atlanta is not a good Away team; true, they are only 4-4 away,
but the Giant’s are only 4-4 @ home… so that is a wash. I do find it very interesting that the Giant’s
are a 56% Square play, yet the line has not moved a bit; this makes me feel
even better about backing Atlanta.
I think we will see Atlanta break from their standard 42%
run play percentage, and step that up to 45%, and the Giant’s will abandon the
run by the second half (Bradshaw is still not anywhere near top form since he
injured himself).
Atlanta 31 NYG 23
Atlanta ML +130 for 1
Unit
Atlanta +3 for 3 units
I started the chant just like I said I would yesterday at a local bar...."Let's go Tex-ans! ...Let's go Tex-ans! 
The bar was rockin' 
Then towards the end I chimed in with a little somethin' of my own that many of my local bars have become all to familiar with..."fuku-payme! ... fuku-payme!" 
It's all about having a good time! LOL 
FUPM 
If this is stressful for you and you are not having a good time I highly recommend you find a different hobby! LOL
Established in 1995,
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